Posts Tagged ‘Pakistan’

Why I think we should get out of Afghanistan

Wednesday, December 9th, 2009

I was in favor of the Iraq invasion in 2003 and, although the post-war period was botched, I think the Surge has made it a modest success. Iraq was always a better bet than Afghanistan because it is a rich country and had a modest middle class already. In fact, I think Iraq has a good chance to become the most successful Arab state. On the other hand, I think Afghanistan is a very risky situation.

During Afghanistan’s golden age which consisted of the last king’s rule, the country consisted of a small civilized center in Kabul while the rest of the country existed much as it did in the time of Alexander the Great. I have reviewed Kilcullen’s Accidental Guerilla, which explains much of the Afghan war. He is not optimistic about it and neither am I. Aside from the fact that Obama is a reluctant, very reluctant, warrior here, Pakistan is a serious obstacle to success.

Today, Andy McCarthy calls our attention to an explosive editorial in Investors’ Business Daily on the links between the Taliban and Pakistan’s army and intelligence services.

it’s an open secret the Taliban are headquartered across the border in the city of Quetta, Pakistan, where they operate openly under the aegis of Pakistani intelligence — and the financial sponsorship of the Saudis.

Sending more troops to Afghanistan is a necessary, albeit unfortunate, rear-guard action against marauding Taliban fighters armed, trained, supplied and deployed from Quetta — and funded from Riyadh.

NATO and U.S. military command know this. They’ve complained about it over and over in military action reports. So have Treasury officials regarding Saudi funding of the Taliban.

“Saudi Arabia today remains the location where more money is going to terrorism — to Sunni terror groups and the Taliban — than any other place in the world,” testified Stuart Levey, Treasury undersecretary.

This is Viet Nam all over again. The enemy has a sanctuary and our allies are siding secretly with our enemies.

Here’s how the game works. The Pakistanis are currently engaged in a much heralded crackdown on jihadists. But they are limiting those operations to the jihadists in the northwest tribal region — i.e., those whose primary target is the Pakistani government. By contrast, the Taliban — i.e., the jihadists targeting the U.S. and Afghanistan — are holed up in Quetta, the capital of Baluchistan, under the protection of the ISI. In fact, there are now reports that Mullah Omar has been moved to Karachi to protect him from U.S. drone attacks.

Pakistan is playing a double game. Secondly, our troops are handicapped by absurd rules of engagement.

The Times compiled an informal list of the new rules from interviews with U.S. forces. Among them:

• No night or surprise searches.

• Villagers have to be warned prior to searches.

• ANA or ANP must accompany U.S. units on searches.

• U.S. soldiers may not fire at the enemy unless the enemy is preparing to fire first.

• U.S. forces cannot engage the enemy if civilians are present.

This is ridiculous. Pakistan is protecting the enemy and our troops are restricted to idiotic limits, such as warning hostile villages before attacks. We should leave.

Then, if things deteriorate, Pakistan may become the target instead of Afghanistan.

How to win in Afghanistan

Sunday, November 8th, 2009

There is an essay, actually a pamphlet, that explains a strategy to win in Afghanistan. The author is a Special Forces major who has been there, and in Iraq, for years and who seems to know what he is writing about. I doubt it will happen but it is worth reading. It’s interesting that it is on Steven Pressfield’s blog. For those unfamiliar with his novels, you should read some of them. I suspect his novel about Alexander’s campaign in Afghanistan is based on real life experience the past nine years. The pamphlet also agrees with my idea that the campaign against the poppy is doomed.

It is a pdf document and is worth reading.

What we face in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Friday, May 29th, 2009

The Byzantine politics of Pakistan were briefly illuminated last week by a bombing in Lahore, Pakistan that killed, not only policemen (a tactic of jihadis in Iraq) but members of the ISI, Pakistan’s intelligence service that created the Taliban in the 1980s. Why would the Taliban attack the ISI ? Well, there are Taliban and Taliban.

While analyzing the Lahore attack, one has to keep in mind certain ground realities: The first is that there are Talibans and Talibans, and within each Taliban there are mini-Talibans. There are virtually as many Talibans in the Pashtun belt as there are tribal sirdars (leaders).

The second ground reality is the clear distinction in behavior and operations between the “Neo Taliban” of Afghanistan, headed by Mullah Mohammad Omar, based in Quetta, Pakistan, and the various Pakistani Talibans led by tribal sirdars such as Baitullah Mehsud of South Waziristan; Hakeemullah Mehsud, who is responsible for operations in the Khyber, Kurrum and Orakzai areas; Maulana Fazlullah of the Tehrik-e-Nifaz-e-Shariat-e-Mohammadi (TNSM), who is a native of Swat; and Sufi Mohammad, his father-in-law, who is actually from Dir and not Swat. Of these various Talibans, only the Neo Taliban of Mullah Mohammad Omar, which was created by the ISI in 1994 when Benazir Bhutto was prime minister, still owes its loyalty to the ISI and the Pakistan government.

Now, is that clear ?

I would suggest the Kilcullen book, The Accidental Guerilla , which I reviewed on Amazon in February. There is also Winston Churchill’s The Story of the Malakand Field Force, still in print over 100 years after its publication. It is still mandatory reading in the Army as is his The River War for Iraq. The villages in the story are the same and the conditions have little changed. In fact, a good novel about Afghanistan is Steven Pressfield’s The Afghan Campaign, a fictional account of Alexander’s campaign in 330 BC. Little has changed in Afghanistan except the weapons.

Obama’s foreign policy

Sunday, April 26th, 2009

We have seen over the past several weeks the Obama approach to foreign policy. He has been on an apology tour from Europe to South America. At the Summit of the Americas conference, he was humiliated by Hugo Chavez when that Venezuelan dictator handed Obama a leftist book that blames all of Latin America’s problems on the bad old USA. Obama, of course, didn’t realize that he was being humiliated, which makes it even worse. Now that the atmospherics are about over, serious issues are coming to a head, especially in Pakistan.

The Pakistani government, a supposedly democratic one is headed by former felon, Asif Ali Zardari, husband of slain leader Benazir Bhutto. Previously known as “Mister 10%”, he has a reputation as a corrupt, but very rich, man. Last fall, the Pakistan government signed a truce with the Taliban that included Sharia law in a large part of the country. It is no surprise that the truce only emboldened the Taliban who now threaten to take over the country with its nuclear arsenal.

Obama will thus have a chance to show his mettle a bit sooner than we feared. Things are happening very fast.

Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, accused Pakistan this week of “abdicating to the Taleban”, which “poses a mortal threat to the security and safety of our country and the world”. … Mrs Clinton’s remarks followed a recent deal between Mr Zardari and the Taleban in the Swat Valley, allowing them to establish a fundamentalist enclave in the former tourist area in exchange for laying down their arms.

The Taleban have not disarmed, and this week its fighters poured out of Swat into the neighbouring district of Buner, taking control of government buildings and digging in at strategic positions around the major towns.

I’m sure Hillary’s disapproval will galvanize the Paks to fight back. Obama, no doubt, will give this all serious thought and look pensive. Of course, his peace and apology offensive has not emboldened the Paks who wonder what he will do next to undercut their defenses.

However, the administration itself has been talking about negotiating with the moderate Taliban for some time. Carlotta Gall, writing in the New York Times, said last month that preliminary talks had already begun. “Even as President Obama floated the idea of negotiating with moderate elements of the Taliban, Afghan and foreign officials here said that preliminary discussions with the Taliban leadership were already under way and could be developed into more formal talks with the support of the United States.” While it is difficult to equate the Pakistani agreement with any that Washington is contemplating, the Pakistani experience underscores how badly wrong ‘peace deals’ can go.

Indeed.

Maybe the Paks have learned that we are now supporting al Qeada terrorists in Somalia.

Well, unlike that false urban legend about US sponsoring Islamist terrorists, it’s my sad duty to report that today the US is sponsoring Islamist terrorists. Directly.

I’ve mentioned Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys in the past, but today he officially returned to Somalia to join the US and UN sponsored reconciliation government, but let me recap why his return means that the US is now directly funding terrorists.

Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys was once heavily funded by Osama bin Laden, helped shield the US embassy bombers form justice, and is on the U.S. State Department’s list of designated terrorists:

Designated on November 7, 2001…
Hassan Dahir Aweys

Are you getting this? The U.S. State Department has Aweys on their list of designated terrorists. This means that all of Aweys assets are to be frozen.
But it’s not just the U.S. that has designated Aweys a terrorist. So, too, has the UN:

A U.N. Security Council resolution has designated Aweys as a terrorist
Today Aweys is back in Somalia as part of the new government.
The very same government that is backed by the US:

Does anyone else get the feeling that Obama is more comfortable with our enemies than our allies ? I still remember Jimmy Carter deciding to throw his lot in with Ayatolah Khomeini in Iran and allowed the Shah, an old ally, to be thrown out. At least Iran did not have nuclear weapons, then.

Can anybody here play this game ?

Thursday, February 5th, 2009

UPDATE 2: Well, I guess he didn’t have the votes after all. The midnight oil is off.

UPDATE: Harry Reid has just announced: Look, if this group of 17 bipartisan senators think they’re going to change the bill substantially, they’ve got another thing coming. We’re going to have a vote, I’m going to have the votes, and we’re going to get this through.

The Congressional Budget Office has said: President Obama’s economic recovery package will actually hurt the economy more in the long run than if he were to do nothing, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday.

CBO, the official scorekeepers for legislation, said the House and Senate bills will help in the short term but result in so much government debt that within a few years they would crowd out private investment, actually leading to a lower Gross Domestic Product over the next 10 years than if the government had done nothing.

CBO estimates that by 2019 the Senate legislation would reduce GDP by 0.1 percent to 0.3 percent on net. [The House bill] would have similar long-run effects, CBO said in a letter to Sen. Judd Gregg, New Hampshire Republican, who was tapped by Mr. Obama on Tuesday to be Commerce Secretary.

Okay, now we know.

Casey Stengel famously complained that the early New York Mets were so inept that he wondered if anybody knew how to play the game. After two weeks of watching the Obama people fumble, I have similar thoughts. Of course, they have told us that the people like Geithner are so important that it doesn’t matter that he didn’t pay his taxes. I guess Daschle wasn’t that important, but Geithner is irreplaceable.

The White House defended the exceptions on the grounds that these people were exceptionally qualified. This is such a reasonable argument that the White House easily could have made it on the front end.

Huh ?

There is no one else ?

Daschle’s negligence was gross, particularly for a party and an administration that have celebrated prostration before the taxman as a “patriotic duty.” But Daschle’s offenses, galling as they may be, are exceeded by those of Geithner. Indeed, of all the tax transgressions touching Obama’s circle, Geithner’s are the worst.

Not only did Geithner neglect to pay his taxes, he turned a buck by doing so—accepting payments from his employer for the very purpose of offsetting those taxes. When he took the money, he signed a statement promising to pay the taxes and then ignored his obligations—for years. Protected by a statute of limitations, he did not pay his 2001–02 taxes until his nomination made them a public issue.

If Daschle’s tax problems should bar him from managing the federal health-services bureaucracy and Killefer’s preclude her from scrutinizing the budget, how is it that Geithner’s transgressions—the worst of the lot—are insufficient to disqualify him from managing the same Internal Revenue Service whose attentions he evaded?

Well, at least the stimulus bill is popular, or it is if you count 37% as popular.

Well, there is always foreign policy. Of course, choosing ambassadors to crucial countries is not that important. Zinni will not forget this soon.

Unemployment in Russia is rising fast, and the currency, the ruble, has lost about a fifth of its value. $200 billion—a third of the reserves—have already been spent supporting the ruble, so that further devaluation seems a virtual certainty Foreign investors have withdrawn billions of dollars.

All of which encourages the Kremlin to go on the attack in classic style. We already know how Putin and company treat Georgia.

Now, they are going after a crucial ally in Afghanistan.

Russia has ensnared Kirghizstan with the usual blend of violence, cunning and bribery. In recent weeks, Russia began by attacking the Kirghiz internet infrastructure. Then it simply bought the country with a multi-billion dollar loan to plug the deficit in the Kirghiz budget, with additional hundreds of millions of dollars in write-offs and grants. More than that, according to the Daily Telegraph, what are delicately called “bonuses” and “emoluments” were paid to officials. The money may be running out in Moscow, and the currency about to crash, but power still remains power.

As part of this murky business, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, the Kirghiz president, has ordered the United States to quit the former Soviet base it rented at Manas, close to the country’s capital of Bishkek. Manas is needed to ferry supplies to American and other forces over the border in Afghanistan, and squadrons of fighter jets are also stationed there. President Obama has been promising increased operations against Afghan Islamists, but the closing of Manas will seriously impede any such development.

Oh well, who cares about Kirghizstan ? One of those unpronounceable former Soviet republics. The only problem is that our routes to supply the troops in Afghanistan are very limited. There is Kirghizstan to the north and Pakistan to the south. Now, one of them is gone.

David Pryce-Jones refers to this as Obama’s “Carter moment.”

When the Soviet army invaded Afghanistan back in 1979 and began that poor country’s destruction, then President Jimmy Carter feebly lamented that he’d just learned what he was up against.

Unfortunately, it isn’t just Obama who is “up against” this situation. It is all of us.

The attack in Mumbai

Friday, November 28th, 2008

UPDATE: There is a better discussion of what happened here and some analysis that is right on.

Many put the blame for the attack on years of Indian-Pakistani hostility and tension. In fact, relations between the two countries have never been warmer. This past month, Pakistan’s new president stunned and delighted Indians by publicly renouncing any first use of nuclear weapons. Violence in Kashmir, the principal bone of contention between India and Pakistan since 1947, is on the decline. Before the Mumbai attacks, politicians were scheduled to start talks on permitting trade across the region’s Line of Control, so that Hindu farmers in Indian Kashmir can sell their wheat or a used tractor to Muslim farmers in Pakistani Kashmir.

Thus, the purported motivation for terrorist attacks is bogus.

India’s record on counterterrorism is abysmal, almost deliberately so. The government in New Delhi steadfastly maintains a wall of separation between law-enforcement agencies like the one that used to separate the FBI and CIA before the Patriot Act, and keeps counterterrorist units underfunded and undermanned. It has repeatedly given way to the demands of Islamic radical groups and fundamentalist lobbyists in the name of “cultural sensitivity.” India was the first non-Islamic country to ban Salman Rushdie’s Satanic Verses back in 1988.

India has no preventive detention laws; no laws to protect the identity of anti-terrorist witnesses; and no laws to allow domestic wiretapping without court order. In 2004, the new Congress Party government revoked India’s version of the Patriot Act, even as the Indian media was loudly condemning the U.S. for “torture” at Gitmo and Abu Ghraib.

In short, the Indian government has waged the war on terror in much the same way that liberals and many Democrats have been urging the U.S. to carry it out. The result is that more than 4,000 Indians have died in attacks since 2004 — more than any other nation in the war on terror besides Iraq.

I wonder of Obama is digesting this information. His ability to learn, since he begins at such a low information level about anything except running for office, is critical for our safety.

The Washington Post has a mildly interesting account of the terrorist attack in Mumbai. Far more interesting and informative (as usual) are Indian blog accounts with details missing from mainstream media stories. Even cricket blogs have covered the events, and in more detail than US media. Indian newspapers seem to be more willing to criticize politicians, although Indian politicians might even be worse then ours, if that is possible considering the Vice-President-elect.

The police told the Cabinet that the terrorists had arrived in the city in a boat from Karachi. The boat had stopped four nautical miles short of the Mumbai coast. Two hovercraft hired by someone for the terrorists ferried them to the jetty near Colaba.

The government machinery, taken completely by surprise by the terror attack, decided to call in the Army at 11 pm on Wednesday. After frantic calls to Delhi, senior Mantralaya officials requested National Security Guards (NSG) Commandos for the operation. Calls also went to Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh, who was in Kerala.

Deputy CM R R Patil, who was supervising the operation from his official residence at Malabar Hill, was requested by PWD Minister Chhagan Bhujbal to visit the DGP office at Colaba.

Sources said though the plane carrying NSG Commandos was ready by midnight, it could not take off due to the delayed arrival of a VIP, who wanted to accompany them to Mumbai, at the Delhi airport. Worse, the Commandos had to wait for a vehicle at the Mumbai airport until morning.

As I wrote, even worse politicians than ours. The Indians have captured one of the vessels that ferried the terrorists ashore so that may be a lead to local cooperation.

Indian television seems to be no more responsible than our own.

Commandos are landing on the Nariman Building. They seem to be tip-toeing down. They are communicating to each other through hand signals. Secrecy & surprise are paramount. And NDTV is showing this live!!! With informative commentary on how many commandos have landed and so on. Perhaps NDTV’s research has shown that terrorists only watch cartoon network during missions.

As long as we are threatened by terrorists, we will remain in a state of suspended war, and we need to invest in bringing our cops up to date with urban warfare, in terms of both training and equipment.

It even brings up an interesting question.

One of my friends mentioned in an email that perhaps our security forces should ask themselves one question when they are faced with such situations: “WWID:
What Would Israelis Do?”
The Jerusalem Post had some criticism, but of course Israelis were a target of the terrorists.

There is plenty of criticism although it is early but India seems willing to learn and to act when others are often indecisive. Their weak spot, as is ours, seems to be politicians. The Indian news media was fascinated with the exploits of US Armor officer Neil Prakesh, who joined the US Army after graduation from Johns Hopkins and ROTC training, and led a tank platoon into Fallujah in 2004. The Indian Army is professional and the populations seems supportive of them.

India’s leaders — who invariably swan around with armed guards paid for by the taxpayer — can’t even agree on a legal framework to keep the country safe. On taking office in 2004, one of the first acts of the ruling Congress Party was to scrap a federal antiterrorism law that strengthened witness protection and enhanced police powers.

The Congress Party has stalled similar state-level legislation in Gujarat, which is ruled by the opposition Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party. And it was a Congress government that kowtowed to fundamentalist pressure and made India the first country to ban Mumbai-born Salman Rushdie’s “Satanic Verses” in 1988.

The BJP hasn’t exactly distinguished itself either. In 1999, the hijacking of an Indian aircraft to then Taliban-ruled Afghanistan led a BJP government to release three hardened militants, including Omar Sheikh Saeed, the former London School of Economics student who would go on to murder Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl.

They may have had enough damage inflicted this time to convince the government that it is time to get professional about terrorism. Finally, definite lessons have been shown to be essential to learn.

First, it is utterly and completely bizarre that while we whine about the Home Ministry, the intelligence establishment gets off scot-free even as Indians are murdered on the streets.

It is impossible for the police to guard every building or check every passenger. All over the world, terrorism is fought through intelligence. A good security service penetrates terrorist cells, monitors radio traffic and picks up intelligence about terrorist activity.

Of course, George W Bush is still getting criticism for his efforts to accomplish this essential goal.

Second, we should recognise that there is a new dimension to these attacks that was missing from earlier terrorist strikes. The aim of the Bombay terrorists was to continue the global jihad on Indian soil. That’s why they sought out American and British passport holders and that’s why Israelis and Jews were among the principal targets of the violence.

India is now a first world country and it is therefore a target of the 7th century militants.

Third, L.K. Advani was right when he said that these attacks were not like the usual bombings, but he was wrong when he drew a parallel with the 1993 Bombay blasts.

When we saw the television pictures of the Taj Mahal hotel in flames, it was not the 1993 blasts we thought of. It was 9/11.

It sounds flip and glib to say that these attacks constitute India’s 9/11. But that, in fact, is the truth.

The significance of 9/11 was that it made Americans conscious of the danger they were in and aware that nothing was safe; that terrorists could destroy such powerful symbols of American prestige as the World Trade Center.

I should correct this to assert that some Americans still deny the danger but, since their candidate is now in power and responsible for failure, some of them may change.

It is now reported that British subjects were among the terrorists targeting British passport holders.

Why Afghanistan will much harder to hold than Iraq

Wednesday, August 6th, 2008

This report summarizes the situation in Afghanistan where Pakistan is the key. If we lose Pakistan, and we probably will, Afghanistan cannot be held. Of course, if we lose nuclear-armed pakistan, Afghanistan will be the least of our problems.

Obama has never supported our troops in Afghanistan. On the contrary, he said on August 14, 2007–less than a year ago–that our forces there are mostly committing war crimes:

“We’ve got to get the job done there and that requires us to have enough troops so that we’re not just air-raiding villages and killing civilians, which is causing enormous pressure over there.”

Obama has been so uninterested in Afghanistan that when he went to Iraq and other countries in the Middle East with a Congressional delegation in January 2006, he skipped the opportunity to continue on to Afghanistan, which was taken by others who made the trip with him, including Kit Bond and Harold Ford.

And Obama does not know what language they speak in Afghanistan.

[I]n an embarrassing gaffe, Obama claimed on May 13, 2008, that we don’t have enough “Arabic interpreters, Arab language speakers” in Afghanistan because they are all being used in Iraq. Obama thereby demonstrated the intellectual laziness and incuriosity that characterizes his campaign: they don’t speak Arabic in Afghanistan, and, anyway, interpreters are drawn from local populations, not shipped around the world.

A problem that Obama cannot solve

Sunday, July 20th, 2008

The unforced error by Prime Minister Maliki this weekend, described below, makes the possibility of a President Obama more likely. This is a frightening prospect but it is worse even than we had been told. The real threat to the western world is not Iraq or Iran. It is Pakistan. The government is unstable and has the Bomb. What could be worse ? Read the story and see.

Then think about a new president who does not know that Afghanistan does not speak Arabic ! I thought the infamous interview with Bush in 2000 showed appalling ignorance but that was before 9/11. We are now at war in Afghanistan. The young man who scolds his fellow countrymen for failing to learn languages that he, himself, does not speak, is frighteningly ignorant, not only about the world outside Chicago, but about about how ignorant he is.

News from Afghanistan

Monday, June 2nd, 2008

The Taliban is at the “tipping point” of losing the war to the allies and the Afghans. So much for the theory that Afghanistan was lost because of Iraq.

The key to the success may be the increasing use of Predator drones over Pakistan, which do not require permission and are deniable as they fly very high and have enormous range. The BRitish are using another vehicle:

They have also been subjected to strikes by the RAF’s American-made Reaper unmanned aerial vehicle and the guided Royal Artillery missile system, which have both proved a major battlefield success.

The future of this sort of asymmetrical war lies with technology as well as the COIN tactics of General Petraeus. In the 1980s, the Mujahaddeen told the CIA “We are not afraid of the Russians but we are very afraid of their helicopters.” The next generation consists of UAVs that can loiter at high altitude for 24 hours looking for targets.

An MQ-1B Predator unmanned aerial vehicle based at Balad AB Iraq engaged three anti-Iraqi forces in the process of placing an improvised explosive device along a road near Balad Air Base Monday night, 29 March 2004. The Predator launched an AGM-114 Hellfire missile against the group. The Predator monitored the three individuals for about half an hour while they used a pick ax to dig a hole in the road, placed an explosive round in the hole and strung wires from the hole to a ditch on the side of the road. When it was clear the individuals were placing an IED, the Predator launched the 105-pound Hellfire missile, resulting in the deaths of all three insurgents.

They didn’t hear it or know it was watching them !

What happened in Pakistan

Sunday, January 6th, 2008

I am a fan of David Pryce-Jones‘ writing and, since reading his book on the Arab mind, I consider him an expert on the Middle East. His recent piece on the Bhutto assassination seems to me to be another excellent bit of informed analysis. Our options are very limited in Pakistan and we have ourselves to blame for much of the current predicament. Victor Davis Hanson, however, provides a needed dose of reality about how limited our power and responsibility really is. I do think, however, that it was foolish to push Bhutto and Mushareff into this fatal embrace. We simply cannot expect good intentions to be enough in such circumstances.