There is an essay, actually a pamphlet, that explains a strategy to win in Afghanistan. The author is a Special Forces major who has been there, and in Iraq, for years and who seems to know what he is writing about. I doubt it will happen but it is worth reading. It’s interesting that it is on Steven Pressfield’s blog. For those unfamiliar with his novels, you should read some of them. I suspect his novel about Alexander’s campaign in Afghanistan is based on real life experience the past nine years. The pamphlet also agrees with my idea that the campaign against the poppy is doomed.
It is a pdf document and is worth reading.
Tags: Afghanistan, Pakistan
OK, Mike… I’m reading.
First the photo: All Men.
Yes, yes… I understand that we’re talking traditional society, yadda, yadda, yadda… but I’m pointing out the MASSIVE social disconnect here between our way of life vs. what either supporting their contrary way of life with regard to women’s rights or trying to change them from within means in the real world. In the real world, Mike, it means either constantly butting heads there or constantly butting heads here- butting heads in a way that’s hard to justify domestically.
Next – and in line with my previous comment: TRIBAL. That’s the word Maj. Gant uses time and again. And he’s correct to do so! We’re NOT talking about a nation, Mike. We’re just not.
Listen. Mike. You might as well propose an actual American “defensive” Empire with “A Teams” operating across every Third World nation on earth. After all, each and every failed state or largely tribal society on earth is potentially “the next Afghanistan” in terms of providing a safe haven for terrorists. fixating and obsessing on Afghanistan seems to me a bit of closing the barn door after the horses have already escaped.
As to “Problems, Challenges, Questions,” Mike… Gant admits it himself… Washington ain’t gonna remove the roadblocks to success; if anything, the Obama administration with a Pelosi/Reid led Congress and Holder as AG will further micromanage and limit options for “winning” the war.
* To be continued…
BILL
OK, Mike, I’ve now read the pamphlet through page 9.
So far at least Gant seems to be saying small teams are the way to go. Therefore – logically, it seems to me – this means that LARGE forces, tens of thousands let alone hundreds of thousands of boots on the ground, is NOT the way to go.
(Hmm… who has been saying this ALL ALONG…???) (Hint: WRB are that man’s initials.) (*WINK*)
“A strategy in which the central government
is the centerpiece of our counterinsurgency plan is
destined to fail. It disenfranchises the very fabric of
Afghan society.”
Exactly. Therefore nation building as our politicians understand and support the term is the EXACT OPPOSITE strategy that will work in Afghanistan. Yet… this is the strategy that the Obama administration seems determined to follow and from what I can tell McCain and his ilk are right on board with this type of counterproductive strategy!
(Mike… I’m getting a headache…)
“We need to integrate ourselves into the process
as trusted “advisors” to the tribal leadership. They
need to know that we have their best interests in
mind.”
Mike. Not gonna happen. The politicians won’t let it happen. It’s not a question of what you or I would like to see happen. No. I’m talking the reality that the politicians who are ultimately the masters of the “game” will insist on playing by artificial “liberal” Western rules that run smack into the reality on the ground.
(BTW, even under an ideal scenario where the politicians in Washington kept their noses out of the actual action on the ground… why is it that I keep on having “Apocalypse Now” flashbacks of Marlon Brando as Col. Kurtz…???)
* To be continued…
BILL
We do have hundreds of special forces around the world doing this now. Read Imperial Grunts for details. Frankly, I don’t see Obama doing anything this sophisticated because he isn’t really interested in foreign matters.
Mike. What’s your bottom line? I mean… what’s your bottom line on what you’d have the U.S. do with regard to Afghanistan and the world and after you give us your “plan” give us your best guess on how likely it is to be adopted by the Obama administration or even a Republican administration in 2013.
Do you see what I’m getting at, Mike…??? As with Maj. Gant’s proposals, any proposals you or I come up with have zero chance of being put into practice.
Mike. Being my usual cynical (but correct!) self, let me just say that the U.S. is in terminal decline and while I doubt the nation will actually split or become engaged in a major war which we lose in the next ten years, I’d say the effective “end” is going to come within 35 years at most and I fear sooner than that.
Afghanistan will become (or rather continue to be) a bleeding sore, a quagmire to throw out the post-Vietnam cliche.
We’ll continue to starve our military… said military will decline in power projection ability compared to China… we’ll be out of Europe within ten years – fifteen on the outside…
Here at home socialism will continue to spread, living standards will decline, class envy will actually strengthen and solidify…
Anyway… yeah, I’ve gone a bit off topic, but everything is interconnected, Mike.
BILL
I don’t think they will be allowed to win. It will be a stalemate and I prefer they are pulled out so that lives are not lost in futile struggle. I do think that the SF scenario could be helpful but Obama is not going to approve that. He is anti-military.