Archive for March, 2019

From Russia to healthcare in one day.

Saturday, March 30th, 2019

Last Friday, the Mueller report was submitted to the DOJ. Monday, left wing media saw ratings collapse.

What next ? Why Healthcare, of course.

Obamacare, which is a form of expanded Medicaid, costs too much and provides too little care (high deductibles) unless you are a Medicaid recipient. It was designed to shift costs to the insured from the poor. It also was a gift to certain sectors of the healthcare industry. Ted Kennedy criticized healthcare as a “cottage industry” with lots of independent doctors doing their own thing as small businesspeople. That is why doctors have traditionally been conservative. Obamacare changed that. Healthcare is now an industry with doctors mostly on salary and controlled by administrators.

I talked to a young ophthalmologist last week, who had treated a mild eye disorder. He told me he moved to Tucson to work at U of Arizona medical center, which used to be called “UMC” by everybody in Arizona. He explained that the UMC administrators had gotten deeply into debt installing a new “Electronic Health Record” system and sold the UMC to Banner Health. This is a chain that runs the former UMC and has seen an exodus of university faculty physicians. Even my barber noticed. He told me several weeks ago that his surgeon, who had operated on him, got tired of constantly being told he only had 15 minutes to see each patient and left for the VA. The ophthalmologist was disappointed as he had looked forward to working at the academic center.

Traditionally, administrators hated doctors. We made their lives more difficult by advocating for patients. I once told an administrator that if the hospital did not reduce the markup on pacemakers, I would testify for the patient if they sued him for the balance of the bill. They didn’t like it but knew I could go elsewhere,and take my patients there. If I had been an employee, I would not have that choice. Several years ago, I explained how we started a trauma center in our hospital. Since then, the hospital has been sold to a non-profit run by nuns. The surgical group that ran the trauma center for 35 years was fired two years ago. They had declined to sell the group to the hospital. They were replaced by six female surgeons no one had ever heard of and who had never applied for privileges at the hospital or been evaluated by the Surgery Department. No one knew anything about them except one member of this new group had applied for a job at the trauma group and been turned down.

There were a few comments about some less satisfactory results on trauma cases but that has quickly gotten quiet.

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My mother

Sunday, March 24th, 2019

My mother had a pretty interesting life. Her father was born in 1849.

Joe Mileham2

Here he is with his sister, Anna, at about the age of five or so. This is from a Daguerreotype, which was printed on a copper plate that looked like glass.

Invented by Louis-Jacques-Mandé Daguerre and introduced worldwide in 1839,[4][5][6] daguerreotype was almost completely superseded by 1860 with new, less expensive processes yielding more readily viewable images. In the late 20th century, there was a revival of daguerreotypy by a small number of photographers interested in making artistic use of early photographic processes.

To make the image, a daguerrotypist would polish a sheet of silver-plated copper to a mirror finish, treat it with fumes that made its surface light sensitive, expose it in a camera for as long as was judged to be necessary, which could be as little as a few seconds for brightly sunlit subjects or much longer with less intense lighting; make the resulting latent image on it visible by fuming it with mercury vapor; remove its sensitivity to light by liquid chemical treatment, rinse and dry it, then seal the easily marred result behind glass in a protective enclosure.

The image is on a mirror-like silver surface, normally kept under glass, and will appear either positive or negative, depending on the angle at which it is viewed, how it is lit and whether a light or dark background is being reflected in the metal. The darkest areas of the image are simply bare silver; lighter areas have a microscopically fine light-scattering texture. The surface is very delicate, and even the lightest wiping can permanently scuff it. Some tarnish around the edges is normal.

So the method was only ten years old when that image was made.

Joseph Mileham sr (1)

Here he is as an adult, acting in a play. There is an amazing likeness to his grandson, Arthur G Kerrison, who served in World War II.

Bud, Marion and Mike

There is Arthur G, also known as “Bud,” a common nickname for a junior in those days. He is holding me up between him and his sister Marian. Another sister, Ruth, often known in the family as “Little Ruth” since mother lived with them until 1926 and was often considered an older sister.Ruth was born in 1916 when mother was 18 years old. Marian was born in 1917 so they were not that far apart in age. Ruth and Marian would later function as babysitters for me as they were 22 and 23 when I was born.

My mother’s mother was born in Canada and her birth name was “Bridget,” which she did not like and changed to “Della” while in school.

Della Mileham

This is her photo as an adult and probably not long before she died in 1926.

She and Joseph Mileham met in Aurora Illinois where she was working and living in a rooming house owned by Joseph’s sister Anna.

They married and mother was born as the fourth child, and third surviving child, 18 months before her father died of pneumonia.

Mother 18 mo-color

Here she is as an infant, probably around the time her father died.

Her sister is here.

peg and art (1)

She is quite young and her husband Art is with her.

Her brother, Joseph Jr is here with his wife Marie.

Joe and Maria Mileham

Mother at 18.

mom (1)

Mother272

Here she is in 1925 at age 27 with two boy friends on vacation at Lake Delevan.

In 1926, her mother and brother both died. She traveled to California to stay with relatives and remained until 1929.

Ruth and Merle

Here she is dressed as a typical flapper with her cousin, Merle McHenry. She returned to Chicago after 1929 as the McHenrys were hit hard by the Depression.

She married my father in 1937 and I was born in 1938.

Here she is with her sister and brother-in-law and with her niece Marian.

Kerrisons (1)

That would be around the 1960s. And here she is at her 100th birthday.

100th birthday

She lived a full life in three centuries. Born in 1898 and died in 2001.

Sunspots and the Ice Age.

Monday, March 11th, 2019

We have been hearing about global warming, allegedly due to CO2 acting as a “greenhouse gas” since the 1980s. There is argument about this as water vapor is a stronger greenhouse gas.

“Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas. This is part of the difficulty with the public and the media in understanding that 95% of greenhouse gases are water vapour. The public understand it, in that if you get a fall evening or spring evening and the sky is clear the heat will escape and the temperature will drop and you get frost. If there is a cloud cover, the heat is trapped by water vapour as a greenhouse gas and the temperature stays quite warm.

Does this mean the “97% of scientists are correct ? Nope.

My concern is that we are at the end of a Sunspot Cycle which is an 11 year cycle.

cyclew24

The solar cycle was discovered in 1843 by Samuel Heinrich Schwabe, who after 17 years of observations noticed a periodic variation in the average number of sunspots.[2] Rudolf Wolf compiled and studied these and other observations, reconstructing the cycle back to 1745, eventually pushing these reconstructions to the earliest observations of sunspots by Galileo and contemporaries in the early seventeenth century.

Following Wolf’s numbering scheme, the 1755–1766 cycle is traditionally numbered “1”. Wolf created a standard sunspot number index, the Wolf index, which continues to be used today.

The period between 1645 and 1715, a time of few sunspots,[3] is known as the Maunder minimum, after Edward Walter Maunder, who extensively researched this peculiar event, first noted by Gustav Spörer.

What happened with the “Maunder Minimum?” Maybe an Ice Age.

Valentina Zharkova, a professor of mathematics at Northumbria University in the United Kingdom, used a new model of the sun’s solar cycle, which is the periodic change in solar radiation, sunspots and other solar activity over a span of 11 years, to predict that “solar activity will fall by 60 percent during the 2030s to conditions last seen during the ‘mini ice age’ that began in 1645,” according to a statement.

Look at the chart of the solar cycles above. Doesn’t the one beginning 11 years ago look smaller at its peak ?

More evidence something is going on.

Aurora borealis or northern lights are among the most spectacular atmospheric displays. Called Aurora australis in the southern hemisphere they are visible evidence of the relationship between the sun and climate. In early days they called them Petty Dancers from the French petite danseurs. In England, they were also called Lord Derwentwater’s lights because they were unusually bright on February 24th, 1716, the day he was beheaded. A bad omen for him, but they were also an indicator of the bad weather and harvest failures of the period.

The Aurora is getting lower in latitude.

Northern-Lights-in-the-UK-Can-you-watch-Aurora-Borealis-from-the-UK-Where-can-you-see-it-1095446

People have been known to catch a glimpse in Kent and Cornwall, but this is very rare.

Northern areas of England and Scotland are more likely to see the Aurora Borealis.

This is because these areas have a view of the northern horizon, the perfect place to spot the stunning lights.

They are getting more common in UK.

The current debate attracting more and more people is that we are cooling with the only question left as to the extent and intensity. Will it be weather similar to the cooler period coincident with the Dalton Minimum from 1790 – 1830? Alternatively, will it be colder with similar conditions to those by the early fur traders in Hudson Bay or those that spanned the life of Sir Edmund Halley? The appearance of Aurora in northern England suggests the latter, although I can predict who will protest this suggestion.

Next year will be the end of the current Solar Cycle. Then we will find out if the next will be a minimum.

The role of the Polish Guarantee in WWII.

Saturday, March 9th, 2019

The second of the issues about Churchill arises from my reading of Pat Buchanan’s book, “Churchill, Hitler and the unnecessary War.” I like Buchanan’s books but disagree with most of what he writes here. He blames Churchill and Edward Grey for WWI. This prompted me to get a biography of Edward Grey, who was Foreign Secretary from 1905 to 1916 and I think it is fair to say, he had much to do with the beginning of the war. I disagree about Churchill who did not hold a post in the Liberal administration until he became First Lord of the Admiralty in 1911. In this role he is given credit for getting the fleet ready for war. He did not have a role in the crisis of July 1914 which led to it.

In The Second World War, his role was mostly early warning about Hitler and his ambitions. He spent the 1930s warning that Britain should rearm as Germany was doing. He was ignored. His warnings were so dismissed that his columns and radio broadcasts were stopped during the height of appeasement.

There is an interesting issue that Churchill had nothing to do with. The last moment Guarantee to Poland. His statement at the time and in his book, was:

‘Here was decision at last, taken at the worst possible moment and on the least satisfactory ground, which must surely lead to the slaughter of tens of millions of people. Here was the righteous cause deliberately and with a refinement of inverted artistry committed to mortal battle after its assets and advantages had been so improvidently squandered. Still, if you will not fight for the right when you can easily win without bloodshed; if you will not fight when your victory will be sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than live as slaves.’

Buchanan makes fair case that, had Chamberlain not done his last minute and hopeless Polish Guarantee, Hitler might have gone on to attack Poland and then the Soviets and avoided war with France and Britain. There was no chance of avoiding war altogether once the Germans had occupied the Rhineland and been left alone. Czechoslovakia was a more difficult case. The Czechs might have been able to defeat the Germans in 1938. Perhaps Hitler would not have risked it.

By 1939 and with Poland landlocked and far away from France and Britain, there was no chance the guarantee would do anything but create a larger war. Poland, in fact, had carved off part of Czechoslovakia in 1938 and had no moral case for help. IT was a disastrous error but it was made by Chamberlain, not Churchill.

Some random thoughts on Churchill.

Saturday, March 9th, 2019

I am currently reading Andrew Roberts’ excellent biography of Churchill.

It does a better job with his early life than the other biographies I have read. I am 2/3 through it and have not yet reached Pearl Harbor so the emphasis is clear. I have reflected on a couple of items, not necessarily about Churchill but about his times.

For example, had Cecil Rhodes and the British gold miners not invaded the Transvaal would the Boer War have occurred and, if it had not occurred, would Germany have built its High Seas Fleet?

Now the Transvaal Republic might, like the Orange Free State, have simply remained as a small shut-in self-governing state without creating any disturbance. But the Transvaalers were the sons of the stalwarts who fifty years before had sought to escape from all British control. They looked upon South Africa as a Dutch not a British inheritance; they resented the limitations imposed on them by the British, and their experience had not taught them any respect for the British Empire. Their president, Paul Kruger, had himself gone on the great trek in his boyhood. It is not possible to doubt that President Kruger dreamed his own dreams of a United South Africa, but a South Africa under a Dutch flag, not under the Union Jack; though how far those dreams were shared by others is not equally clear. But whatever his ambitions outside the Transvaal, within the borders of the republic he intended to go his own way.

But then gold was discovered in Transvaal.

In 1885, however, the discovery was made of valuable goldfields within the territories of the republic; aliens, Uitlanders as they were called, for the most part British subjects, whatever their actual nationality might be, poured into the Transvaal to exploit the mines. The Boer government had no objection to the exploitation of the mines on its own terms, which did not include the concession of citizenship to the Uitlanders till after a very prolonged residence. All the burdens of citizehship were laid on the Uitlanders without its privileges. The Uitlanders began to feel that they had no security for justice, and to demand approximately the opportunities for acquiring citizenship in the Transvaal which were readily accorded to the Transvaaler who migrated into British territory.

Then came The Jameson Raid.

The Jameson Raid is one of the great mysteries of British imperial history. Launched in the early hours of the penultimate day of 1895, it has provided historians with juicy morsels to toy with ever since. Naturally, it caused enormous interest and controversy at the time, and, arguably was one of the main causes of the Boer War of 1899-1902. The Raid, led by Cecil Rhodes’ lieutenant and confidant, Dr Jameson, was a crude attempt to settle the Transvaal problem of the 1890’s by overthrowing Kruger’s republic, with the help of the English-speaking Uitlanders of Johannesburg and the Rand, and establishing a pro-British government of some sort in its place. The plan was a disastrous flop: Jameson’s troopers of Rhodes’ British South Africa Police Force were easily rounded up by the Boer Commandos, and the Uitlander uprising went off at half-cock; British policy in South Africa lay in ruins.

Germany was sympathetic to the Boers but the British Navy banned any attempt to help them.

Who were the Boers ?

The Dutch East India Company had been formed in the Dutch Republic in 1602, and the Dutch had entered keenly into the competition for the colonial and imperial trade of commerce in Southeast Asia. In 1648 one of their ships was stranded in Table Bay, and the shipwrecked crew had to forage for themselves on shore for several months. They were so impressed with the natural resources of the country that on their return to the Republic, they represented to the directors of the company the great advantages to the Dutch Eastern trade to be had from a properly provided and fortified station of call at the Cape. The result was that in 1652, a Dutch expedition led by surgeon Jan van Riebeek constructed a fort and laid out vegetable gardens at Table Bay.

Landing at Table Bay, Van Riebeek took control over Cape Town, the settlement developed during the previous 10 years. In 1671 the Dutch first purchased land from the native Khoikhoi beyond the limits of the fort built by Van Riebeek; this marked the development of the Colony proper. The earliest colonists were for the most part people of low station; but, as the result of the investigations of a 1685 commissioner, the government worked to recruit a greater variety of immigrants to develop a stable community. They formed a class of “vrijlieden”, also known as “vrijburgers” (free citizens), former Company employees who remained at the Cape after serving their contracts.[8] A large number of vrijburgers became independent farmers and applied for grants of land, as well as loans of seed and tools, from the Company administration.[8]

How did the British get involved ?

In 1795, Holland having fallen under the revolutionary government of France, a British force under General Sir James Henry Craig was sent to Cape Town to secure the colony for the Prince of Orange, a refugee in England?, from the French. The governor of Cape Town at first refused to obey the instructions from the prince; but, when the British proceeded to take forcible possession, he capitulated. His action was hastened by the fact that the Khoikhoi, deserting their former masters, flocked to the British standard. The burghers of Graaff Reinet did not surrender until a force had been sent against them; in 1799 and again in 1801 they rose in revolt. In February 1803, as a result of the peace of Amiens (February 1803), the colony was handed over to the Batavian Republic, which introduced many needed reforms, as had the British during their eight years’ rule. One of the first acts of General Craig had been to abolish torture in the administration of justice. Still the country remained essentially Dutch, and few British settlers were attracted to it. Its cost to the British exchequer during this period was £16,000,000. The Batavian Republic entertained very liberal views as to the administration of the country, but they had little opportunity for giving them effect.

When the War of the Third Coalition broke out in 1803, a British force was once more sent to the Cape. After an engagement (January 1806) on the shores of Table Bay, the Dutch garrison of Castle of Good Hope surrendered to the British under Sir David Baird, and in the 1814 Anglo-Dutch treaty the colony was ceded outright by Holland to the British crown. At that time the colony extended to the line of mountains guarding the vast central plateau, then called Bushmansland, and had an area of about 120,000 sq. m. and a population of some 60,000, of whom 27,000 were whites, 17,000 free Khoikhoi and the rest slaves, mostly imported blacks and Malays.

What about Germany and the Boer War ?

german volunteers

Germany Was sympathetic and many volunteers from Germany joined the Boers.

The relationship between the Boers and the German nation was an unusual one. During the Boer war there was great support for the Boer struggle within Germany and the Kaiser sent a telex to the Boers voicing his support for their war efforts.

The Boers were armed with weapons made by Mauser and Krupp. Although the Boer Commandoes fought in a manner foreign to European battlefields the Artillery was well trained in European methods. Major Albrecht, the officer commanding the Orange Free State artillery was a German Veteran.

A German Freikorps of Volunteers was formed who fought on the Boer side. This included German Officers and Graf Zeppelin who was killed at the battle of Elandslaagte. Another prominent European volunteer killed in action was the French colonel Villebois de Mareuil, a Foreign Legion officer serving on the Boer side.

Any attempt to provide more aid to the Boers was blocked by the Royal Navy, which threatened ships that carried contraband.

In Dec 1899 the British cabinet allowed the Royal Navy to search and impound foreign ships suspected of carrying war material to the Boers. Three German ships, the Bundesrath, Herzog and General were forced into port and searched, with negative results. These incidents certainly fanned the flames of Anglophobia in Germany, and actually allowed the German government to pass their Navy Bill of that year with minimum fuss. This bill set out plans to double the size of the German Navy, starting a European arms race that of course came to a head in 1914.

Intervention by other Great Powers in 1899 wasn’t a practical possibility though because of the Royal Navy’s overwhelming superiority.

But although foreign governments didn’t actively support the Boers, foreign anti-British volunteers most certainly did, including Germans Irish, Dutch, French, Scandinavians, Russians and Americans. Often they distinguished themselves: the Germans under Colonel Schiel at Elandslaagte, the Hollanders in Natal, the Scandinavians at Magersfontein (where a platoon was nearly wiped out when overrun by Highlanders).

The Kaiser’s frustration at this rather high handed behavior by the British was one major reason he began to build the High Seas Fleet. The rest can be read in Massie’s great history of the coming of World War I.