Archive for the ‘religion’ Category

The attack in Mumbai

Friday, November 28th, 2008

UPDATE: There is a better discussion of what happened here and some analysis that is right on.

Many put the blame for the attack on years of Indian-Pakistani hostility and tension. In fact, relations between the two countries have never been warmer. This past month, Pakistan’s new president stunned and delighted Indians by publicly renouncing any first use of nuclear weapons. Violence in Kashmir, the principal bone of contention between India and Pakistan since 1947, is on the decline. Before the Mumbai attacks, politicians were scheduled to start talks on permitting trade across the region’s Line of Control, so that Hindu farmers in Indian Kashmir can sell their wheat or a used tractor to Muslim farmers in Pakistani Kashmir.

Thus, the purported motivation for terrorist attacks is bogus.

India’s record on counterterrorism is abysmal, almost deliberately so. The government in New Delhi steadfastly maintains a wall of separation between law-enforcement agencies like the one that used to separate the FBI and CIA before the Patriot Act, and keeps counterterrorist units underfunded and undermanned. It has repeatedly given way to the demands of Islamic radical groups and fundamentalist lobbyists in the name of “cultural sensitivity.” India was the first non-Islamic country to ban Salman Rushdie’s Satanic Verses back in 1988.

India has no preventive detention laws; no laws to protect the identity of anti-terrorist witnesses; and no laws to allow domestic wiretapping without court order. In 2004, the new Congress Party government revoked India’s version of the Patriot Act, even as the Indian media was loudly condemning the U.S. for “torture” at Gitmo and Abu Ghraib.

In short, the Indian government has waged the war on terror in much the same way that liberals and many Democrats have been urging the U.S. to carry it out. The result is that more than 4,000 Indians have died in attacks since 2004 — more than any other nation in the war on terror besides Iraq.

I wonder of Obama is digesting this information. His ability to learn, since he begins at such a low information level about anything except running for office, is critical for our safety.

The Washington Post has a mildly interesting account of the terrorist attack in Mumbai. Far more interesting and informative (as usual) are Indian blog accounts with details missing from mainstream media stories. Even cricket blogs have covered the events, and in more detail than US media. Indian newspapers seem to be more willing to criticize politicians, although Indian politicians might even be worse then ours, if that is possible considering the Vice-President-elect.

The police told the Cabinet that the terrorists had arrived in the city in a boat from Karachi. The boat had stopped four nautical miles short of the Mumbai coast. Two hovercraft hired by someone for the terrorists ferried them to the jetty near Colaba.

The government machinery, taken completely by surprise by the terror attack, decided to call in the Army at 11 pm on Wednesday. After frantic calls to Delhi, senior Mantralaya officials requested National Security Guards (NSG) Commandos for the operation. Calls also went to Chief Minister Vilasrao Deshmukh, who was in Kerala.

Deputy CM R R Patil, who was supervising the operation from his official residence at Malabar Hill, was requested by PWD Minister Chhagan Bhujbal to visit the DGP office at Colaba.

Sources said though the plane carrying NSG Commandos was ready by midnight, it could not take off due to the delayed arrival of a VIP, who wanted to accompany them to Mumbai, at the Delhi airport. Worse, the Commandos had to wait for a vehicle at the Mumbai airport until morning.

As I wrote, even worse politicians than ours. The Indians have captured one of the vessels that ferried the terrorists ashore so that may be a lead to local cooperation.

Indian television seems to be no more responsible than our own.

Commandos are landing on the Nariman Building. They seem to be tip-toeing down. They are communicating to each other through hand signals. Secrecy & surprise are paramount. And NDTV is showing this live!!! With informative commentary on how many commandos have landed and so on. Perhaps NDTV’s research has shown that terrorists only watch cartoon network during missions.

As long as we are threatened by terrorists, we will remain in a state of suspended war, and we need to invest in bringing our cops up to date with urban warfare, in terms of both training and equipment.

It even brings up an interesting question.

One of my friends mentioned in an email that perhaps our security forces should ask themselves one question when they are faced with such situations: “WWID:
What Would Israelis Do?”
The Jerusalem Post had some criticism, but of course Israelis were a target of the terrorists.

There is plenty of criticism although it is early but India seems willing to learn and to act when others are often indecisive. Their weak spot, as is ours, seems to be politicians. The Indian news media was fascinated with the exploits of US Armor officer Neil Prakesh, who joined the US Army after graduation from Johns Hopkins and ROTC training, and led a tank platoon into Fallujah in 2004. The Indian Army is professional and the populations seems supportive of them.

India’s leaders — who invariably swan around with armed guards paid for by the taxpayer — can’t even agree on a legal framework to keep the country safe. On taking office in 2004, one of the first acts of the ruling Congress Party was to scrap a federal antiterrorism law that strengthened witness protection and enhanced police powers.

The Congress Party has stalled similar state-level legislation in Gujarat, which is ruled by the opposition Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party. And it was a Congress government that kowtowed to fundamentalist pressure and made India the first country to ban Mumbai-born Salman Rushdie’s “Satanic Verses” in 1988.

The BJP hasn’t exactly distinguished itself either. In 1999, the hijacking of an Indian aircraft to then Taliban-ruled Afghanistan led a BJP government to release three hardened militants, including Omar Sheikh Saeed, the former London School of Economics student who would go on to murder Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl.

They may have had enough damage inflicted this time to convince the government that it is time to get professional about terrorism. Finally, definite lessons have been shown to be essential to learn.

First, it is utterly and completely bizarre that while we whine about the Home Ministry, the intelligence establishment gets off scot-free even as Indians are murdered on the streets.

It is impossible for the police to guard every building or check every passenger. All over the world, terrorism is fought through intelligence. A good security service penetrates terrorist cells, monitors radio traffic and picks up intelligence about terrorist activity.

Of course, George W Bush is still getting criticism for his efforts to accomplish this essential goal.

Second, we should recognise that there is a new dimension to these attacks that was missing from earlier terrorist strikes. The aim of the Bombay terrorists was to continue the global jihad on Indian soil. That’s why they sought out American and British passport holders and that’s why Israelis and Jews were among the principal targets of the violence.

India is now a first world country and it is therefore a target of the 7th century militants.

Third, L.K. Advani was right when he said that these attacks were not like the usual bombings, but he was wrong when he drew a parallel with the 1993 Bombay blasts.

When we saw the television pictures of the Taj Mahal hotel in flames, it was not the 1993 blasts we thought of. It was 9/11.

It sounds flip and glib to say that these attacks constitute India’s 9/11. But that, in fact, is the truth.

The significance of 9/11 was that it made Americans conscious of the danger they were in and aware that nothing was safe; that terrorists could destroy such powerful symbols of American prestige as the World Trade Center.

I should correct this to assert that some Americans still deny the danger but, since their candidate is now in power and responsible for failure, some of them may change.

It is now reported that British subjects were among the terrorists targeting British passport holders.

al Qeada and a loss of morale

Tuesday, May 27th, 2008

UPDATE: Hugh Hewitt has an interview with Lawrence Wright from Friday with more on this subject.

The Democrats are convinced the war in Iraq is either lost or not worth winning. Obama says we are “not safer.” The leaders of al Qeada may not agree with him and there are signs of dissension and even a loss of morale. This essay by Lawrence Wright, author of The Looming Tower and an expert on radical Islam, is well worth the time to read it.

The two principle characters in the essay are Zawahiri, Osama bin Laden’s second in command, and another radical physician and spiritual guide of radical Islamists who calls himself “Dr Fadl.” His premise was developed in the Afghan war against the Soviets.

In Peshawar, Fadl devoted himself to formalizing the rules of holy war. The jihadis needed a text that would school them in the proper way to fight battles whose real objective was not victory over the Soviets but martyrdom and eternal salvation. “The Essential Guide for Preparation” appeared in 1988, as the Afghan jihad was winding down. It quickly became one of the most important texts in the jihadis’ training.

The “Guide” begins with the premise that jihad is the natural state of Islam. Muslims must always be in conflict with nonbelievers, Fadl asserts, resorting to peace only in moments of abject weakness. Because jihad is, above all, a religious exercise, there are divine rewards to be gained. He who gives money for jihad will be compensated in Heaven, but not as much as the person who acts. The greatest prize goes to the martyr.

Things may have changed.

Last May, a fax arrived at the London office of the Arabic newspaper Asharq Al Awsat from a shadowy figure in the radical Islamist movement who went by many names. Born Sayyid Imam al-Sharif, he was the former leader of the Egyptian terrorist group Al Jihad, and known to those in the underground mainly as Dr. Fadl. Twenty years ago, he wrote two of the most important books in modern Islamist discourse; Al Qaeda used them to indoctrinate recruits and justify killing. Now Fadl was announcing a new book, rejecting Al Qaeda’s violence. “We are prohibited from committing aggression, even if the enemies of Islam do that,” Fadl wrote in his fax, which was sent from Tora Prison, in Egypt. Fadl’s fax confirmed rumors that imprisoned leaders of Al Jihad were part of a trend in which former terrorists renounced violence.

His defection posed a terrible threat to the radical Islamists, because he directly challenged their authority. “There is a form of obedience that is greater than the obedience accorded to any leader, namely, obedience to God and His Messenger,” Fadl wrote, claiming that hundreds of Egyptian jihadists from various factions had endorsed his position.

What is going on ? Maybe the Iraq War, and the Afghanistan campaign are winning the war on Islamism. They did not expect the response they got from us. Also, the rejection al Qeada has suffered from the ordinary people in Iraq, who want peace and who are horrified at the tactics of the vicious boys recruited by Islamist leaders in Iraq, may have shaken their confidence. At least the confidence of those who are not complete sociopaths, like Zawahiri.

This may be a trend. His conclusions ?

It is, of course, unlikely that Al Qaeda will voluntarily follow the example of the Islamist Group and Zawahiri’s own organization, Al Jihad, and revise its violent strategy. But it is clear that radical Islam is confronting a rebellion within its ranks, one that Zawahiri and the leaders of Al Qaeda are poorly equipped to respond to. Radical Islam began as a spiritual call to the Muslim world to unify and strengthen itself through holy warfare. For the dreamers who long to institute God’s justice on earth, Fadl’s revisions represent a substantial moral challenge. But for the young nihilists who are joining the Al Qaeda movement for their own reasons—revenge, boredom, or a desire for adventure—the quarrels of the philosophers will have little meaning.

Those of his interlocutors ?

“Dr. Fadl’s revisions and Zawahiri’s response show that the movement is disintegrating,” Karam Zuhdy, the Islamic Group leader, told me one afternoon, in his modest apartment in Alexandria. He is a striking figure, fifty-six years old, with blond hair and black eyebrows. His daughter, who is four, wrapped herself around his leg as an old black-and-white Egyptian movie played silently on a television. Such movies provide a glimpse of a more tolerant and hopeful time, before Egypt took its dark turn into revolution and Islamist violence. I asked Zuhdy how his country might have been different if he and his colleagues had never chosen the bloody path. “It would have been a lot better now,” he admitted. “Our opting for violence encouraged Al Jihad to emerge.” He even suggested that, had the Islamists not murdered Sadat thirty years ago, there would be peace today between the Palestinians and the Israelis. He quoted the Prophet Muhammad: “Only what benefits people stays on the earth.”“It’s very easy to start violence,” Zuhdy said. “Peace is much more difficult.”

The economics of global warming

Sunday, May 25th, 2008

Here is an excellent essay on the economics of various global warming scenarios. It does not propose that the current hysteria is incorrect. It simply considers the costs of various proposed remedies, a little bit like Bjorn Lomborg does.

Whether someone is serious about tackling the global-warming problem can be readily gauged by listening to what he or she says about the carbon price. Suppose you hear a public figure who speaks eloquently of the perils of global warming and proposes that the nation should move urgently to slow climate change. Suppose that person proposes regulating the fuel efficiency of cars, or requiring high-efficiency lightbulbs, or subsidizing ethanol, or providing research support for solar power—but nowhere does the proposal raise the price of carbon. You should conclude that the proposal is not really serious and does not recognize the central economic message about how to slow climate change. To a first approximation, raising the price of carbon is a necessary and sufficient step for tackling global warming. The rest is at best rhetoric and may actually be harmful in inducing economic inefficiencies.

This is a quote from one of the books being reviewed. It is so sensible that I am surprised to find it in The New York Review of Books, a publication I once subscribed to but gave up on years ago.

He proposes five possible scenarios to deal with the problem and calculates the economic cost of each. One scenario is “business as usual.” Two are radical programs proposed by Al Gore and Sir Nicholas Stern. The results of those two programs, calculated purely on economic terms and based on projected conditions in 2100, are disastrously worse than business as usual.

Personally, I am a skeptic and believe that, while the planet is warming, this is a natural phenomenon and we can do little to alter it, nor should we. I am also watching the sun spot cycle over the next year to see if the climate might change yet again.

Londonstan and the Guardian

Saturday, May 3rd, 2008

The Guardian, formerly Manchester Guardian before it went national, is Britain’s largest left wing newspaper. It has adopted all the pathologies of the left including Jew bashing and Israel hating. It is no friend of ours either. It would never publish a piece like this, for example, because it might offend the mullahs in Iran. It has no problem offending Americans, though, but our future president’s pastor leads the way there.  This, by the way, is the nightmare of the Guardian. People might be changing their minds.

Turkey and Islamist revolution

Tuesday, April 15th, 2008

I was in Turkey in 2004. I was struck by how friendly everyone was and how they revere Attaturk, the founder of the modern state and the founder of secular Turkey’s culture. That may change. When we were entering the Blue Mosque, there were stern young men who did not look friendly and who were there to ensure that shoes were removed and that women wore veils.

Cindy Blue Mosque

My wife wears a head scarf in the Blue Mosque of Istanbul.

Annie and Army officer

On the other hand, here is Annie with a Turkish Army officer who thought she looked just fine without a veil.  I like Turkey and think of it as a model for what we are trying to do in Iraq.

Now, that may be changed by an obscure man living in the US.

The parallels with Khomeni and 1979 are too serious to ignore.

Here is the story.

Few U.S. policymakers have heard of Fethullah Gülen, perhaps Turkey’s most prominent theologian and political thinker. Self-exiled for more than a decade, Gülen lives a reclusive life outside Philadelphia, Pa. Within months, however, he may be as much a household a name in the United States as is Ayatollah Khomeini, a man who was as obscure to most Americans up until his triumphant return to Iran almost 30 years ago.

While Gülen supporters jealously guard his image in the West, he remains a controversial figure in Turkey. According to Cumhuriyet, a left-of-center establishment daily — Turkey’s New York Times — in 1973, the Izmir State Security Court convicted Gülen of “attempting to destroy the state system and to establish a state system based on religion;” he received a pardon, though, and so never served time in prison. In 1986, the Turkish military — the constitutional guardians of the state’s secularism — purged a Gülen cell from the military academy; the Turkish military has subsequently acted against a number of other alleged Gülen cells who they say infiltrated military ranks.

The Erdogan government took over Parliament in 2002 and placed many of their members in key positions in the judiciary.

On May 5, 2006, the Ankara Criminal Court overturned the verdict against Gülen. While a public prosecutor — a secularist hold-out — appealed the court’s action, the process is now nearing conclusion. Gülen’s supporters are ecstatic. His slate wiped clean, Gülen has indicated he may soon return to Turkey.

This would be very bad news. In another example of her clumsy manipulation of other people’s business, Condaleeza Rice is about to interfere on the side of the Erdogan government. This would be a bad mistake and brings back memories of Carter’s representative desribing Khomeni as a “Muslim saint” before his return to Tehran and the Islamist Revolution.

The conversion of Muslims to Christianity

Thursday, April 3rd, 2008

This is an interesting discussion of Muslims leaving Islam, following a prediction of Daniel Pipes that the Iranians may leave Islam if they reject the theocracy now ruling Iran. Al Qeada may be the catalyst for much of this as they show the dark side of the religion. Interesting times.