Posts Tagged ‘Obama’

The Obama-Pelosi-Reid future

Tuesday, January 27th, 2009

UPDATE: Can common sense be breaking out in Washington? Maybe so. If the Democrats shoot their bolt on the pork fest, will they have the guts to come back and do what is needed ?

I wonder how many people think of where the government program of nationalizing failing industry will end up. It might be here, and here.

PARTS of the United Kingdom have become so heavily dependent on government spending that the private sector is generating less than a third of the regional economy, a new analysis has found.

The study of “Soviet Britain” has found the government’s share of output and expenditure has now surged to more than 60% in some areas of England and over 70% elsewhere.

Experts believe the recession will tighten the state’s grip still further as benefit handouts soar and Labour directs public sector organisations to create jobs to soak up unemployment.

In the northeast of England the state is expected to be responsible for 66.4% of the economy this year, up from 58.7% when a similar study was carried out four years ago. When Labour came to power, the figure was 53.8%.

The areas affected are in the north:

Across the whole of the UK, 49% of the economy will consist of state spending, while in Wales, the figure will be 71.6% – up from 59% in 2004-5. Nowhere in mainland Britain, however, comes close to Northern Ireland, where the state is responsible for 77.6% of spending, despite the supposed resurgence of the economy after the end of the Troubles.

Even in southern England, the government’s share of spending is growing relentlessly. In the southeast, it has gone up from 33% to 36% of the economy in four years.

Southeast England is the prosperous area of Greater London and the last refuge of the “Anglo-Saxon Way” according to the French. It is no accident that it is also the home of the “French Silicone Valley.” The rest of Britain (They discourage the term England) is a wasteland, for the most part, and is well described in Theodore Dalrymple’s books.

America has been a special place but that may be changing as we have a new Europhile president (who doesn’t speak any other languages in spite of his scolding of the rest of us) who seems enamoured of socialism.

There is an alternative, as explained here, but it is unlikely to be adopted by this Congress. Republicans should keep their distance from this plan for failure. That would leave them able to offer an alternative for 2010. Obama knows this and he knows that Clinton learned this lesson the hard way when he passed his tax increase in 1993 without Republican votes. The woman who cast the deciding vote lost her re-election campaign in 1994. She was a conservative Democrat and was warned of the consequences as she cast her vote. I hope our Republicans remember that story.

Here is more analysis that concludes the end result will be a European Social Welfare State. Especially note the lack of defense and law enforcement spending in the bill. We need to replace a lot of worn-out equipment in our military and that should count as “infrastructure.” It isn’t there.

The coming hyperinflation

Saturday, January 24th, 2009

UPDATE #2: Today, Robert Samuelson has a column that discusses the crisis and which makes a couple of the points I’ve been making.

Traumatized by plunging home values and stock prices — which have shaved at least $7 trillion from personal wealth — they’ve curbed spending and increased saving.

I’ve made the point that we have been criticized for our low savings rate but the world has, at the same time, been dependent on us to drive the economy, especially for the Asian export economies.

High-saving Asian countries have relied on export-led growth that, in turn, has required American consumers to spend ever-larger shares of their incomes. Huge trade imbalances have resulted: U.S. deficits, Asian surpluses. As Americans cut spending, this pattern is no longer sustainable. Asia is tumbling into recession.

There is even a theory that the entire bubble is a consequence of China’s manipulation of its currency, funneling huge surpluses into the US capital markets.

Geithner is correct that China manipulates its currency. What’s more, this manipulation is arguably the most important cause of the financial crisis. Starting around the middle of this decade, China’s cheap currency led it to run a massive trade surplus. The earnings from that surplus poured into the United States. The result was the mortgage bubble.

Did the US demand simply draw all that investment money ? Is it our fault ?

If Americans’ insatiable appetite for loans explained the flood of Chinese capital into the United States, we would have seen the evidence in a rising price for those loans — that is, higher interest rates in the bond market. But bond rates were strikingly low at mid-decade. This strongly suggests that it was the supply of lending that went up, not the demand for it. Chinese money flooded into the United States because of the push factor from China, not the pull factor from Americans.

Interesting theory and it seems to be the policy of the new Treasury Secretary.

Hmmmm.

UPDATE: Here is a Bruce Bartlett piece on the stimulus package and the economy that seems to me to be a good summary of the history of economic slumps since 1929.

The Weimar Republic ended in a hyperinflation that radicalized the German middle class and led the way for Hitler. Some of that was deliberate as the Germans decided to inflate their currency to wipe out war reparations. That couldn’t happen here, could it ? Look at this graph.

Look at that chart. It is the US money supply. Look at the curve, then look at 2008. Yes, that is a vertical straight line. It looks like Weimar Germany to me.

The coming ice age ???

Saturday, January 24th, 2009

This is interesting. The Obama people are talking about science being restored with his election but he has appointed one of the worst AGW hysterics as his science advisor. Canada will not be happy about it and maybe my property in Tucson will appreciate.

This pretty much states my opinion.

More recently, CNN meteorologist Chad Myers, an American Meteorological Society certified meteorologist, said, “You know, to think that we (humans) could affect weather all that much is pretty arrogant.”

I think we will know in another few years. That may be too late for Obama to avoid looking the fool.

The health care crisis (not)

Thursday, January 15th, 2009

You know that the health care crisis is getting critical. The University of Chicago Hospitals have eliminated Michelle Obama’s $300,000/year job. She wasn’t there much the past year anyway. The New Republic thinks this is a serious problem. Nobody else does.

The Illinois Way

Sunday, December 21st, 2008

Thus far, we have been treated to the “Chicago Way” of Obama and Daley and the other Daley machine cronies. Now, with the nomination of Republican Congressman, Ray LaHood as Secretary of Transportation, we will be introduced to the Illinois Way, the bipartisan corruption that has killed off the Republican Party in Illinois. Dennis Hastert was the Speaker of the House when the Republican majority frittered away its chances for a long run by passing pork-laden spending bills and convincing Bush not to veto them. Hastert retired before the 2006 election and his seat was taken by a Democrat in that election. What about LaHood and Obama’s “infrastructure projects?”

Via David Frum, John Kass of the Chicago Tribune has the explanation of LaHood’s appointment.

What Obama forgot to mention is that with LaHood in charge of the roads, they’ll lead to one place:

Bill Cellini.

Cellini, the Republican boss of Springfield who has been indicted in the Blagojevich scandal for allegedly shaking down the producer of the movie “Million Dollar Baby,” is a strong LaHood ally. Cellini runs Sangamon County, and LaHood has enjoyed Cellini’s political support.

They also joined to help oust the last true reformer in Illinois politics, former Sen. Peter Fitzgerald, the Republican who was denied an endorsement from his own state party after he brought federal prosecutors to Illinois with no connection to the bipartisan Combine that runs things here.

Republican money man Cellini is not only the Chicago political connection to machine Democrats and Mayor Richard Daley’s City Hall—and a Blagojevich fundraiser—he’s also the boss of the Illinois Asphalt Pavement Association.

I wonder if former Senator Fitzgerald might be convinced to come back and try to clean up Illinois. He’s probably too smart of try an Augean stables project like that.

Here it comes

Friday, December 19th, 2008

So far, conservatives have been pleasantly surprised by Obama’s foreign policy and national security nominations. He kept Gates at Defense and named General Jones as National Security Advisor. Hillary Clinton as Secretary of State is not exactly a conservative choice but it could have been worse. Some of his campaign advisors were pretty odd. Now we are starting to see his domestic policy nominations and his leftist roots are showing. His choice for science advisor is an old fashioned eco-nut.

The Anthropogenic Global Warming movement has elements of a New Age religion. Even though the bona fides of the advocates have been debunked, the main stream media is oblivious to skeptics. This is not a good sign.

Here is more on him. Ugh !

Dr. Holdren, now a physicist at Harvard, was one of the experts in natural resources whom Paul Ehrlich enlisted in his famous bet against the economist Julian Simon during the “energy crisis” of the 1980s. Dr. Simon, who disagreed with environmentalists’ predictions of a new “age of scarcity” of natural resources, offered to bet that any natural resource would be cheaper at any date in the future. Dr. Ehrlich accepted the challenge and asked Dr. Holdren, then the co-director of the graduate program in energy and
resources at the University of California, Berkeley, and another Berkeley professor, John Harte, for help in choosing which resources would become scarce.

In 1980 Dr. Holdren helped select five metals — chrome, copper, nickel, tin and tungsten — and joined Dr. Ehrlich and Dr. Harte in betting $1,000 that those metals would be more expensive ten years later. They turned out to be wrong on all five metals, and had to pay up when the bet came due in 1990.

I’ve worried about this before.

The Bailout

Sunday, December 14th, 2008

UPDATE: The UAW has been putting out talking points. Here is a rebuttal of them

This morning the talk shows focused on the failed bailout proposal and, of course, the UAW and the Democrats are blaming “Republican hatred of unions.” I have previously posted my opinion about who is at fault and Megan McArdle seems to agree with me.

I’m hearing the truly bizarre argument that the UAW didn’t scuttle the negotiations; it was the Republicans unreasonable insistence that they cut their wages to levels comparable to that of their competition. After all, the UAW was perfectly willing to negotiate their compensation package–in 2011, when their current contract expires.

And I think that’s perfectly reasonable. We’ll just wait until 2011 to give them the money, then.

I couldn’t have put it better myself. Of course, the Democrats and their allies are lying about the opponents of the bailout.

On ABC’s “This Week” this morning, Paul Krugman repeats the left talking point that Senator Bob Corker led the opposition to the auto bailout because he’s the “Senator from Nissan.”

I saw Senator Levin say on Face the Nation that Senator Corker was OK but “The Republican Leadership” refused to compromise. The compromise was to allow the UAW to continue business-as-usual until 2011. There would either be no GM by 2011 or there would be another 200 billion in federal subsidies already paid out by then. GM has 52 billion in current debt obligations and is losing money every week. The UAW wants the British Leyland solution.

British Leyland, a car company that went through £11 billion of inflation-adjusted British taxpayer money, or $16.5 billion, in the ’70s and ’80s before going out of business. All that is left of the company now are memories of cars like the Triumph, and a painful lesson in the limited effectiveness of bailouts.

One word of warning for Obama and the Democrats: The British Leyland fiasco was nearly the last straw for the British people with the Labour Party. Two years later, they elected Margaret Thatcher’s Conservatives.

Is Blagojevich crazy ?

Thursday, December 11th, 2008

There is some speculation that Governor Blagojevich must be crazy to have been so brazen in his telephone conversations when the possibility of wiretaps had to be considered. He even seemed to dare the authorities to wiretap his conversations.

Here is a good discussion of his mental state. I have had some experience with psychotic and sociopathic patients. A few years ago, one of my medical students was assigned to interview a patient in the County Hospital who was diagnosed with manic depressive psychosis. In the chart of this patient was a letter from his brother warning doctors that the patient was so convincing in his story, and so well organized in his psychotic delusion, that someone who did not know him could easily be deceived. The story he told was that he was a businessman who was on his way to Korea to close a ten million dollar deal. He had reservations on KAL for five days from now and was in the hospital because of a misunderstanding with his family. He was absolutely convincing. Fortunately, there was also confirmed evidence that he had attacked his mother and other relatives and was psychotic.

I don’t know if Blagojevich is a well organized manic psychotic but the arguments in that article I linked are also compelling. He comes from a culture where corruption is a way of life. Obama comes from the same culture and has had close associations with Blagojevich, an association which will now be denied.

I tend to the sane conclusion.

Former Assistant United States Attorney Bill Otis also invokes his professional experience to answer the question:

No, he’s not nuts. Having been an AUSA for a long time, one thing I noticed is that normal, honest people have difficulty understanding how criminals think. (This shows up, for example, in the death penalty debates I do, where abolitionists simply don’t grasp the heartlessness and cruelty that some killers display. It’s simply beyond their experience).

Blago’s world is merely corrupt; it’s not insane. To him, a Senate seat is not a public trust, it’s a commodity. It has a price, and the most efficient mechanism for determining that price is to put it on auction, which is what he did. Far from being insane, it’s perfectly clear-headed — just venal. Mortgage markets should operate as well.

I tend to agree. There will be lots of disinformation and he might even choose an insanity defense in an attempt to get off without jail. It will be interesting to see what happens. Here is another analysis by an informed observer.

Illinois politics

Wednesday, December 10th, 2008

UPDATE: The stories about Obama and Blago are are disappearing from even the cached sites. It’s another memory hole.

I grew up in Chicago and, even as a teenager, was aware that nothing happens in Chicago that isn’t politics. I remember a friend of my father who was ill and needed to be hospitalized. The next step was not to take him to the emergency room; it was to call the alderman’s office to have him admitted to Cook County Hospital. That way, he wouldn’t be bothered with a doctor demanding to examine him, for example.

In David Freddosso’s book, The Case Against Barack Obama, he tells one story of a job applicant appearing at a city office looking for a job. He is asked, “Who sent you?” When he replies that he just showed up hoping to apply for a job, he is told, “We don’t want nobody that nobody sent !” It is all about who sent you.

After the Second World War, my cousins returned from overseas and my parents had parties for them as they returned. Many of their friends came to those parties and marriages resulted in some cases. One of those marriages was between Frank Flanigan, whose father had been chief of detectives in PHiladelphia, and Pat Neary, whose father was an Inspector in the Chicago Police Department. Pat and Frank were very close to my parents as I grew up. Frank was well known as almost the only honest policeman in Chicago. Since policemen’s salaries were kept low to weaken their resistance to bribery, Pat and Frank had some lean years. Frank’s superiors respected his integrity and, to get him away from areas where his honesty would get him into trouble, he was assigned to the “hit and run” section of traffic enforcement. There, he founded one of the first modern crime labs and the conviction rate for hit and run felonies was high enough to result in a feature story in Life Magazine in the early 1950s.

Frank finally was rewarded after a scandal hit the Chicago PD. In 1959, a burglary ring was found within a Chicago police precinct. The scandal finally led to reform of the police department. Orlando W Wilson, a professor of criminology and former police chief, was brought in to take over the force and clean it up. He discovered Frank and made him chief of homicide. Frank served honorably in the position until retirement and then continued a second career as chief investigator for the Coroner’s Office of Cook County.

The point of that little story is to point out how difficult it was to be an honest man in any position in the City of Chicago.

In the years when I was growing up in Chicago, the rest of the state was relatively honest compared to the city but that wasn’t saying much. Generally, “downstate” was run by Republicans and Chicago was run by Democrats. The last Republican Mayor of Chicago was in 1931. The balance of power shifted from time to time between Cook County, the Chicago area, and the rest of the state. The present Mayor is the son of another long-term Mayor. Both men stayed out of legal trouble by avoiding personal greed that would subject them to unwelcome legal attention. They were interested in power and happy to stay in the city. They had no higher ambitions.

This is the atmosphere in which Barack Obama rose in politics. I have previously written about this. More here. A cast of characters. His education background, and his science inclinations.

Now we have the Blagojevich story with all its uncomfortable ramifications for the President-elect. He has already been caught in a lie.

The Blagojevich Timeline: Everything Fits Easily Except Obama’s Monday Denial. Most people have misunderstood the timeline of the Blagojevich Senate scandal. Pretty much everything fits except Barack Obama’s statement yesterday that he knew nothing about it.
If we didn’t have Obama’s denial to contend with, the actions of all the parties, including those purporting to speak for Obama, are consistent with Obama and his staff learning about Blagojevich’s corrupt plans on Monday, Nov. 10.

Obama’s guru has been quoted acknowledging that the transition team had talked to the governor about who would be appointed to take Obama’s Senate seat.

While insisting that the President-elect had not expressed a favorite to replace him, and his inclination was to avoid being a “kingmaker,” Axelrod said, “I know he’s talked to the governor and there are a whole range of names many of which have surfaced, and I think he has a fondness for a lot of them.”

Then, Obama comes out and says something that is not true. Note how he catches himself to avoid another lie.

On Tuesday, Dec. 8, Obama denies personal knowledge of the corrupt proposal.

“I had no contact with the governor or his office and so we were not, I was not aware of what was happening.”

This seems to be a man who will lie when the truth would serve as well. Maybe he is worried about this.

Blagojevich’s buddies—the ones he still has left—surely aren’t amused. They must be wondering how long it will take for Blagojevich to crack under the federal weight and start singing about all his friends.

Get ready for four years of “The Chicago Way.” Unless, of course, there is a smoking gun under that rock.

Obama’s foreign policy

Tuesday, November 18th, 2008

There has been a lot of talk about Obama’s instincts in foreign affairs. He has surrounded himself with apologists for the Palestinians, for example. Plus of course his previous statements in debates. What counts is who he appoints in his administration. There are signs already of where he is going.

We have some appointments as indicators.

First, his National Security Advisor, General Jones, whose views on Israel are in the public record.

According to both Israeli and American sources, the envoy’s conclusions about Israel are scathing. Israelis who met with Jones on his most recent visit here a few weeks ago, including Israel Defense Forces officers, said their impression was that the report would be “very harsh, and make Israel look very bad.”

Jones is apparently critical of Israel on two key issues. One is its fairly broad definition of its security interests in the West Bank under any final-status agreement. The other is its attitude toward the PA security services.

However, the sources said, Jones also had some criticism for Washington: He said its efforts to reform the PA security services fell short and complained that U.S. government agencies are not coordinating their assistance for these forces. In addition, he reportedly concluded that the PA forces are not yet capable of effectively enforcing the law in the West Bank.

Well, that was not much of a surprise. There’s always the new CIA chief.

John Brennan, who heads the Obama team managing the transition process for the intelligence community, is rumored to be Obama’s pick to head the CIA. Brennan published a long article on Iran in July 2008, expressing a benign view of the Islamic Republic and harsh criticism of U.S. policies that he believes have driven Iran in the wrong direction. Excerpts follow:

“Notwithstanding the fiery rhetoric coming from Iranian officials such as President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian theocracy has made much more limited use of terrorism over the past decade than it did in the first twenty years of its reign….Although it would represent a significant act of domestic political courage, U.S. national security would be best served if Washington publicly acknowledged and explored the roots of this shift in Iranian state support for terrorist activities….While it may serve some narrow political agendas to lump together a wide variety of Iranian policies and actions that are antithetical to U.S. policy aims under the rubric of state-sponsored terrorism, U.S. strategic interests require a more nuanced analysis of and less absolutist approach to this problem….Instead of pursuing a nuanced strategy that could have allowed flexibility in U.S. policy, the Bush administration regrettably opted to conduct its activities under the overarching banner of “The Global War on Terrorism” and declared it would make no distinction between terrorist operatives and their state sponsors.

Sounds like a devoted “root causes” guy, doesn’t he. Well, I guess the Jews knew who they were voting 77% for, didn’t they ?