Posts Tagged ‘Obama’

Promises, promises

Monday, November 16th, 2009

I don’t know that I need to add anything. Others have explained this very well.

Trying KSM in civilian court will be an intelligence bonanza for al Qaeda and the hostile nations that will view the U.S. intelligence methods and sources that such a trial will reveal. The proceedings will tie up judges for years on issues best left to the president and Congress.

Whether a jury ultimately convicts KSM and his fellows, or sentences them to death, is beside the point. The treatment of the 9/11 attacks as a criminal matter rather than as an act of war will cripple American efforts to fight terrorism. It is in effect a declaration that this nation is no longer at war.

Andy McCarthy, who tried the 1993 WTC bombers says, “During the 1993 World Trade Center bombing trial of Sheikh Omar Abdel Rahman (aka the “blind Sheikh”), standard criminal trial rules required the government to turn over to the defendants a list of 200 possible co-conspirators.

In essence, this list was a sketch of American intelligence on al Qaeda.”

According to Mr. McCarthy, who tried the case, it was delivered to bin Laden in Sudan on a silver platter within days of its production as a court exhibit.

Bin Laden, who was on the list, could immediately see who was compromised. He also could start figuring out how American intelligence had learned its information and anticipate what our future moves were likely to be.

Oh well. I don’t understand Obama and am a bit afraid of what I would find if I did.

Manufacturing and the Democrats

Thursday, November 12th, 2009

We have been hearing about the loss of manufacturing jobs in this country for years. Ross Perot talked about a “great sucking sound” in Mexico. That may apply for unskilled jobs but the real manufacturing job is one requiring skill. Not everyone can be a packer or a assembler. A lot of that can be automated. Why is manufacturing leaving our shores ? There are some theories being talked about now. An interview of an executive a couple of weeks ago started another round.

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) — Emerson Electric Co. Chief Executive Officer David Farr said the U.S. government is hurting manufacturers with regulation and taxes and his company will continue to focus on growth overseas.

“Washington is doing everything in their manpower, capability, to destroy U.S. manufacturing,” Farr said today in Chicago at a Baird Industrial Outlook conference. “Cap and trade, medical reform, labor rules.”

Emerson is a big company and has been expanding in other countries for a while. Still, he struck a chord as the administration produced a response from a spokesman for Gary Locke, who is the Secretary of Commerce but has no business experience.

“This attack isn’t supported by the facts,” Kevin Griffis, a spokesman for U.S. Commerce Secretary Gary Locke, said today in an e-mail from Singapore, where they are attending the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meetings.

“This administration has made a significant commitment to U.S. manufacturing, including reforming the country’s health insurance system to bring down costs and make American companies more competitive globally,” Griffis said.

If Locke thinks that health care bill will bring down costs, he hasn’t read it. Of course, no one else has either.

Here is a response, to the Obama Secretary of Commerce and his flunky.

Well, yes it is Kevin. There is a great article in today’s Wall Street Journal that you and Gary ought to read on global warming before they rush off and saddle American manufacturing with Cap and Trade. And rather than slam the manufacturing community represented by the US Chamber of Commerce because they have ideas on health care that are different from the government take-over scheme your boss urges, you ought to shut up and listen. And even the Democrats who control the Senate won’t support your ridiculous Card Check scheme to try to bring labor unions back from the dead. You set up a labor lawyer as the manufacturing czar and a certifiable nut case on the NLRB. You have attacked manufacturing at every turn since taking office.

The Wall Street Journal article on Global Warming closes with:

But from our first column on this subject, we have been convinced that the scientific questions are interesting and irrelevant, since it was never in the cards that Western societies (or Brazil or India or China) would sacrifice economic growth for the uncertain benefits of fighting climate change. Unable to do anything meaningful about climate change, policy would therefore default to satisfying the demand of organized interests for climate pork.

That is no way to run a railroad. Cap & Trade will kill off the rest of manufacturing. I remember when a lot of the fiberglass boat building industry was in Orange County, a half hour or less from my home. The Clean Air Act drove most of it out of business, along with the oil crisis of the 70s as petroleum products quadrupled in price. OIl came back down but the EPA was still there so most of southern California manufacturing moved to Mexico where the Mexican liked jobs more than clean air. In fact, the air was pretty clean in Newport Beach all along.

What else is Obama doing to help industry?

Well, the new hand-picked CEO of AIG, e insurance giant bailed out by the administration last spring wants to resign after 3 months on the job. Why ?

“The executive is chafing under constraints imposed by AIG’s government overseers, particularly a recent compensation review by the Obama administration’s pay czar, Kenneth Feinberg,” WSJ said citing people close to the development.

AIG, which is 80 per cent government owned since its rescue last year, is one of the companies under Feinberg’s purview.

That’s not manufacturing but one thing executives have in common is the desire to make money. Then, of course, there are the new taxes. These are enormous increases in marginal tax rates and they are not indexed for inflation.

In order to raise enough money to make their plan look like it won’t add to the deficit, House Democrats have deliberately not indexed two main tax features of their plan: the $500,000 threshold for the 5.4-percentage-point income tax surcharge; and the payroll level at which small businesses must pay a new 8% tax penalty for not offering health insurance.

This is a sneaky way for politicians to pry more money out of workers every year without having to legislate tax increases. The negative effects of failing to index compound over time, yielding a revenue windfall for government as the years go on. The House tax surcharge is estimated to raise $460.5 billion over 10 years, but only $30.9 billion in 2011, rising to $68.4 billion in 2019, according to the Joint Tax Committee.

Then there is the stimulus which takes the taxes and throws them away.

Taxing the rich hits small business very hard as many file personal returns and many of these new taxes are not subject deductible expenses, just like the AMT.

Americans of a certain age have seen this movie before. In 1960, only 3% of tax filers paid a 30% or higher marginal tax rate. By 1980, after the inflation of the 1970s, the share was closer to 33%, according to a Heritage Foundation analysis of tax returns.

These stealth tax increases—forcing ever more Americans to pay higher tax rates on phantom gains in income—were widely seen to be unjust. And in 1981 as part of the Reagan tax cuts, a bipartisan coalition voted to index the tax brackets for inflation.

We also know what has happened with the Alternative Minimum Tax. Passed to hit only 1% of all Americans in 1969, the AMT wasn’t indexed for inflation at the time and neither was Bill Clinton’s AMT rate increase in 1993. The number of families hit by this shadow tax more than tripled over the next decade. Today, families with incomes as low as $75,000 a year can be hit by the AMT unless Congress passes an annual “patch.”

The Pelosi-Obama health tax surcharge will have a similar effect. The tax would begin in 2011 on income above $500,000 for singles and $1 million for joint filers. Assuming a 4% annual inflation rate over the next decade, that $500,000 for an individual tax filer would hit families with the inflation-adjusted equivalent of an income of about $335,000 by 2020. After 20 years without indexing, the surcharge threshold would be roughly $250,000.

This is a job killer. So is card check.

And on we go toward the fate of Argentina.

A sad day for freedom

Friday, October 30th, 2009

UPDATE: It may not be as bad as it first seemed. Zelaya has to be approved by the Congress that booted him out so maybe little Honduras outsmarted the Obama people.

Well, it seems Obama and his cronies have forced Honduras to back down and allow the nutcase Zelaya back into a power sharing arrangement in Honduras. This is disgusting but one more example of the radical leftist inclinations of this president. I have previously posted on this topic and am still puzzled by Obama’s attraction to this crazy man.

Maybe the real friends of Honduras can figure out Obama’s angle. There has to be one. There is no sane person who thinks this is good for Honduras.

The pay czar

Thursday, October 22nd, 2009

UPDATE: I told you so.

‘‘I can see a situation, subject to funding constraints, of senior bankers moving en masse as a team or possibly setting up a boutique themselves,’’ Nick Hellen, a partner at Executive Access, an executive search firm based in Hong Kong, told Reuters.

The financial crisis wiped out many hedge funds around the world, and the industry is expected to shrink this year to 2005 levels, but those making money have plenty of pulling power.

Most hedge funds function on a 2-and-20 model, meaning employees earn 2 percent of assets they manage, regardless of the firm’s success or failure. They also get to keep 20 percent of profits if the fund is making money and is above a minimum level of investment returns known as the high-water mark.

For example, Artradis’s two main funds have combined assets under management of about $3.5 billion and returned 27 percent and 35 percent, respectively, last year, according to the company. That means a potential return of more than $200 million for the two funds in a firm of fewer than a dozen fund managers.

So while President Obama wants to set up a $500,000 cap on top executive pay at companies receiving taxpayer money, executives working for successful hedge funds can still earn several million dollars a year.

Obama has announced that the income of executives from bailed-out companies will be cut as much as 90%.

Responding to the furor over executive pay at companies bailed out with taxpayer money, the Obama administration will order the firms that received the most aid to slash compensation to their highest-paid employees, an official involved in the decision said on Wednesday.

The plan, for the 25 top earners at seven companies that received exceptional help, will on average cut total compensation this year by about 50 percent. The companies are Citigroup, Bank of America, American International Group, General Motors, Chrysler and the financing arms of the two automakers.

Some executives, like the top traders at A.I.G., will face tight limits on their pay. In addition, the top-paid employees at all the affected companies will face new limits on their perks.

The plan will also change the form of the pay to align the personal interests of the executives with the longer-term financial health of the companies. For instance, the cash portion of the executives’ salaries will be slashed on average by 90 percent, and the rest will be replaced by stock that cannot be sold for years.

I expect that this action will lead to an exodus of talented executives from these companies.

it would have no direct impact on firms that did not receive government bailouts or that have already repaid loans they received from Washington. Therefore, it is unclear how much effect, if any, the plan will have on the broader issues relating to executive compensation, income inequality and the populist animosity toward Wall Street and corporate America.

One thing it may do is to teach businessmen that getting in bed with government leaves a hangover. The threat of such an action goes back to last year and led to an early exit for many young traders who left for greener pastures. This part is hilarious:

the White House, which has come under attack from conservatives for giving the government what they consider too large and intrusive a role in the economy, has also made clear that it has no intention of seeking to impose any broad-based caps on executive pay.

Oh, OK. So they aren’t going to micromanage these firms, eh ?

The White House has proposed, for instance, giving shareholders a nonbinding vote on the pay of top executives.

It has also proposed that compensation committees of boards, as well as compensation consultants, be more independent.

And it will propose that the companies under review divide the function of chairman and chief executive between two executives. Many of these proposals have been introduced in legislation by Senator Charles E. Schumer, Democrat of New York.

Well, that certainly clears it up. Well, what could go wrong ? How about an exodus of the best talent?

Boutique investment firms and top hedge funds are slowly lapping up the cream of global banking talent as the financial crisis forces banks to cut staff and limit the pay of their top risk-takers, Reuters says.

From Singapore to New York, leading traders and sales chiefs are making the switch as government pressure piles on Wall Street and European banks to cut multimillion-dollar bonuses.

‘‘The firms that still have a lot of assets under management, the hedge funds that have not been hit by redemptions, they are still picking up some of the money-makers from the big banks,’’ Pernille Storm at Hudson, an executive search firm in Singapore, told Reuters.

Singapore’s largest hedge fund, Artradis, said this month that it had hired a high-profile risk trader from Royal Bank of Scotland Group and a Credit Suisse executive based in New York, while Fox-Pitt, Kelton, an investment advisory firm, recently picked up five people from banks including Merrill Lynch and HSBC to focus on Asia.

In London, UBS lost two senior European investment bankers last month to the boutique Close Brothers, another to Lazard and at least three energy bankers to Lexicon Partners.

In the United States, where the credit crisis led to the failure of Lehman Brothers, the fire sale of Bear Stearns and the takeover of Merrill Lynch, the trend is even more visible.

Earlier this month, Moelis, an investment banking boutique, said it had hired Chris Ryan, former global head of credit fixed-income at UBS, as a managing director in New York, its second high-profile hire in a month.

UBS, the world’s biggest wealth manager, has cut thousands of jobs globally but ‘‘continues to hire selectively,’’ a spokesman in Hong Kong told Reuters.

Boutiques have also been expanding their clout globally, highlighted this week in Asia when Evercore Partners, an American mergers-and-acquisitions boutique, announced a strategic partnership with Citic Securities of China.

‘‘It’s possible for boutiques to actually hire top talent, which was almost impossible for them while the market was going ballistic from 2005 to the middle of last year,’’ Thomas Hester, head of equity at Fox-Pitt, Kelton, told Reuters.

Yes, Obama sure knows how to be a capitalist, doesn’t he ? Well, maybe that isn’t his talent. I’ll grant you that top GM executives may have a problem finding new jobs but that is another problem altogether. That was years in the making and the unions killed those companies. The financial services industry will just kill off New York City and Schumer will never understand what he helped do.

Maybe emigration to Canada should be considered

Saturday, October 17th, 2009

I confess I don’t understand Obama, or the political views of several of my children who voted for him. I was always convinced that he was a radical leftist and nothing he has done has shaken that view. When Jimmy Carter was elected, I can remember thinking, “Well, he has been a businessman. He can’t be that bad.” He was. I never had a doubt that Obama would be bad although, not even my worst fears were equal to his actions. He has insulted friends like Britain and India. He appears to be bent on appeasing every enemy, like Russia and Iran, while attacking small countries like Honduras with no apparent reason.

His economic policies are inexplicable. The financial meltdown came after years of complaints, from the Wall Street Journal for example, about the policies of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Other financial newspapers explained the hazards of the loan incentives. There was blame to go around because the Bush Administration should have reined in the Fed and the SEC should have intervened and no one did. Still, there is evidence that warnings were ignored. The response in the fall last year was controversial and the Republican House refused to support the bailout bill the Bush Administration presented, to their credit. They held firm on the worse bill the Democrats presented after Obama’s inauguration. The auto companies should have been allowed to file bankruptcy and Bush’s failure to allow this will haunt us for years, even if he did have some fair reasons. Ron Paul, crazy as he is on some subjects, keeps looking better every year.

I really do wonder what all this will look like in two or three years.

Canada has a good leader who seems to be doing the right things, while we try to cope with a media darling who might just be unraveling American history forever. Maybe we are Argentina, after all.

Be that as it may, when I contrast a know-nothing do-harmer like Obama with the prime minister of my own country, a principled and reliable politician who has defended the democratic tradition to the best of his ability and steered the country through the recent economic meltdown with reasonable firmness, who is naturally averse to bedding the media and wary of ingratiating himself with the public, and who possesses verifiable talents, I have no doubt that were Canada’s Stephen Harper president of the United States, it would find itself in a far more resilient position than it does now.

There is a powerful irony at work here. President Obama is well on his way to ruining the American economy and reducing the nation’s defensive posture before an increasingly threatening world. The evidence for so unflattering an assessment is bluntly undeniable, at least for those who have managed to resist hypnosis. Yet he is staunchly defended by the MSM, receives accolades from a vast and robust constituency of devoted supporters, including the Oslo bunch, and is crowned by a nimbus of invincibility. Prime Minister Harper, on the other hand, finds himself constantly struggling to maintain a minority government, faces the prospect of no-confidence motions against his administration and ad hoc coalitions of the disgruntled, and is regarded by the teeming number of leftist nannies in this country as “scary” and of nurturing a “secret agenda” — an agenda, be it said, which is transparently conservative and responsible. If there is a scary and secret agenda to be feared, it is not here.

Read the rest. It is sobering.

Afghanistan may be lost

Thursday, October 8th, 2009

UPDATE: We can all relax. John Kerry is going to Afghanistan to see what needs to be done. I guess he must know a lot about these things from his friends, the North Vietnamese.

Watching the last two weeks or so in the White House, gives me the sense that the decision is going to be the wrong one. There are three possible choices that Obama has; one is to take his hand-picked general’s advice and send 40,000 more troops. It will stress our military and the logistical challenges are serious. Afghanistan is land-locked and the neighbors are not friendly. Russia will try to create problems, as they already have in Kyrgyzstan. They do not want us to succeed yet they may fear total failure. In the meantime, they are making serious trouble.

Another option for Obama is to abandon Afghanistan to the Taliban and withdraw the troops. That goes against all of his, and the Democrats’ rhetoric during the campaign about how Iraq was a “war of choice” but Afghanistan was the “necessary war.”

The third option, and the one I fear is coming, is to muddle through much in the fashion of Lyndon Johnson after his advisors lost confidence in Vietnam and the mission there. That will sacrifice our all volunteer military for political purposes and it is already becoming apparent to the troops that they are not being supported. Morale is plummeting.

American soldiers serving in Afghanistan are depressed and deeply disillusioned, according to the chaplains of two US battalions that have spent nine months on the front line in the war against the Taleban.

Many feel that they are risking their lives — and that colleagues have died — for a futile mission and an Afghan population that does nothing to help them, the chaplains told The Times in their makeshift chapel on this fortress-like base in a dusty, brown valley southwest of Kabul.

“The many soldiers who come to see us have a sense of futility and anger about being here. They are really in a state of depression and despair and just want to get back to their families,” said Captain Jeff Masengale, of the 10th Mountain Division’s 2-87 Infantry Battalion.

Remember, these are not draftees and most have families. I should add to rebut a comment, that the soldiers have very high morale among themselves. This is typical in combat where they rely on others in the unit. Even in the Second World War, where the US Army was no match for the German Army man-for-man, soldiers would do almost anything to avoid letting down their friends and “team.” They are losing faith in the leadership, just as the Army did in Vietnam. Those are two different things. Forty years later, a penis is still referred to as a “Johnson” in the military.

More important than whether or not Obama will send in the 40,000 troops the generals are asking for is what constraints the troops on the ground will be asked to follow. Dropping leaflets on a population is futile when the population is illiterate. Explaining democracy to a people that have no conceptual understanding of liberty is equally difficult. Many Americans today view counterinsurgency operations chiefly as “hearts and minds” operations involving the handing out of teddy bears and candy bars. But the first step in isolating the enemy from the people is protecting the population from those who wish to destroy it. If you keep people safe, you gain their trust. McChrystal is not a man who will shy away from a fight. The surge in Iraq killed hundreds of insurgents using special operatives and regular infantry.

But the current rules of engagement (ROE) in Afghanistan are simply far too constrictive to eliminate large pockets of threat. The people of Afghanistan don’t trust their government and their police forces. We are years away from relying on them as we have with their Iraqi counterparts. The ROE are a direct reflection of that: We are forced to be gentle because of the barbaric manner in which the Afghanis treat their own people. This may make us feel good, but we choose this tactic at the risk of our young men and women.

The chief problem with our Afghanistan strategy is the craven politicians who want to micromanage the war. Moveon.org opposed the escalation of force in Afghanistan eight years ago. Since 2004, however, the Left has turned about-face, bellowing that we “took our eye off the ball” in Afghanistan by fighting the war in Iraq.

I think we are about to see a craven and mistaken decision to let the troops hang out there rather than accept the responsibility for losing the war. This seems to be the patterns of Democrats at war since the New Left took over in 1972. Bill Clinton avoided this in Serbia and Kosovo by bombing from 20,000 feet. It didn’t accomplish much but it did avoid the fate of Johnson and, I fear, Obama.

If the decision is to abandon the commitment to Afghanistan, do it openly and bring the troops home. No one will be fooled by anything else. The rest of the Army officers certainly aren’t fooled.

The hallways at the Walter E. Washington Convention Center buzzed with sympathy for McChrystal, who has said the U.S.-led effort in Afghanistan risks failure without a rapid infusion of additional forces. Obama and his advisers are now debating strategy in Afghanistan, with some officials arguing against additional deployments.

“It was definitely a hand slap,” one Army officer said of the statement last weekend by national security adviser James L. Jones, a retired Marine general, that military officials should pass advice to President Obama through their chain of command. The Army officer, like others attending the annual meeting of the Association of the United States Army, spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak on the politically sensitive issue.

A number of senior Army officers compared McChrystal to Gen. Eric K. Shinseki, the Army chief of staff who warned before the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 that it would take several hundred thousand troops to secure the country — advice that was dismissed as “wildly off the mark” by then Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz.

Yes, but that was Bush and his administration. It now looks as though the Obama pullout will be called Pakistan first.

One of the ideas the Obama administration is considering in response to the deteriorating situation in Afghanistan reportedly is called “Pakistan First.” Championed by Vice President Biden, the idea is to focus U.S. efforts on attacking al-Qaeda targets in Pakistan’s tribal areas with drones or Special Forces, while backing the government’s efforts to pacify and develop the lawless areas where al-Qaeda and the Taliban are based. The battle against the Taliban in Afghanistan, meanwhile, would be put on the back burner.

“Pakistan First” would excuse President Obama from having to anger his political base by dispatching the additional U.S. troops that his military commanders say are needed to stop the Taliban’s resurgence in Afghanistan. It would nominally focus U.S. efforts on a nuclear-armed country that is of far greater strategic importance.

Yes, it would be a lie, of course, but a useful lie. One that keeps him from “angering his base.” Pakistan, however, isn’t fooled.

If the likes of Mullah Omar take over in Afghanistan, it will have serious implications for Pakistan,” Mr. Qureshi said. “They have a larger agenda, and the first to be impacted by that agenda is Pakistan. . . . Whether they do it in Pakistan or whether they do it in Afghanistan, it will have implications on Pakistan and it will have implications on the region.”

Well, you can’t please everyone.

When does McChrystal retire ?

Monday, October 5th, 2009

Things are getting tense between Obama and his hand-picked general in Afghanistan. He and his White House staff are angry that McChrystal spoke his mind in London last week when asked a question. His speech had been approved by the White House but his answer to a question may not have been. There is no problem with morale in Afghanistan as wounded troops refused evacuation to stay and fight with their buddies.

Biden has advocated a whack-a-mole strategy of holing up in bases and striking al Qeada targets from the air. This is what we were doing in Iraq when we were losing. Biden has not been known as a great strategist, or a great anything else, but his ideas are gaining adherents among the faint hearted.

They reached no consensus, so three or four more such meetings are being scheduled. “There are a lot of competing views,” said one official who, like others in this article, requested anonymity to discuss internal administration deliberations.

Among the alternatives being presented to Mr. Obama is Mr. Biden’s suggestion to revamp the strategy altogether. Instead of increasing troops, officials said, Mr. Biden proposed scaling back the overall American military presence. Rather than trying to protect the Afghan population from the Taliban, American forces would concentrate on strikes against Qaeda cells, primarily in Pakistan, using special forces, Predator missile attacks and other surgical tactics.”

Note, there is no mention of how we get the intelligence to plan these strikes and avoid civilian casualties. I don’t think McChrystal will go along with this change and see his troops penned up as targets for suicide attacks. That is the LBJ strategy in Vietnam. Those generals should have resigned and there have been rumors he might just do that. The military, especially McChrystal, may not be willing to play Westmoreland to Obama’s LBJ. If that happens, all hell will break loose. The military will not allow another disaster with a feckless, indecisive administration.

The entire civilian-military relationship could be at stake. Thomas Ricks, 10 years ago, worried in his book, Making the Corps about the contempt many in the military have for civilians who know nothing but think they know it all about war and strategy.

Are you being stimulated ?

Saturday, October 3rd, 2009

The left is convinced that the stimulus is all that is between us and disaster.

In February, when the debate over the economic stimulus package was at its height, a handful of “centrist” Senate Republicans said they’d block a vote on recovery efforts unless the majority agreed to slash over $100 billion from the bill.

The group, which didn’t have any specific policy goals in mind and simply liked the idea of a small bill, specifically targeted $40 billion in proposed aid to states. Helping rescue states, Sen. Collins & Co. said, does not stimulate the economy, and as such doesn’t belong in the legislation. Democratic leaders reluctantly went along — they weren’t given a choice since Republicans refused to give the bill an up-or-down vote — and the $40 billion in state aid was eliminated.

At the time, it seemed like a very bad idea. That’s because it was a very bad idea.

In the past, government hiring had managed to somewhat offset losses in the private sector, but government jobs declined by 53,000, with the biggest number of cuts on the local and state levels. Even the Postal Service, which is included in the public-sector job statistics, dropped 5,300 jobs.

“The major surprise came from the public sector, where every level of government cut back,” Naroff said. “The budget crises at the state and local levels have caused an awful lot of belt-tightening.”

As Atrios reminded the Senate this morning, “Thanks for compromising.”

This, of course, is leftist dogma. Replace private jobs with public jobs. Well, the only trouble is that the money to pay for those public jobs has to be taken from what is left of the private sector. This begins a vicious cycle until the private sector economy collapses, leaving the public to be funded by printing money.

In fact, employment is worse than the statistics suggest.

nonfarm

Note that the last time non-farm payrolls dropped was in 1982. People are retiring or claiming disability and giving up on finding work. The left simply does not understand what makes an economy work. There is no college president to raise the money to pay their salaries.

Reich went on to say that the stimulus is saving or creating 200,000 to 250,000 jobs. He did not explain this. I am guessing that this is based on a formula where if the government spends X you get Y jobs.

That formula does not apply. What matters is investments from the private (or at least non-federal government) sector. That’s down. Way down. Demonizing insurance companies, which earn their money mainly through investments and not premiums, undermines confidence as well.

They just don’t understand, and don’t want to hear from anyone who disagrees.

do

This is what Obama has accomplished. And it is far from over. In February, here is what Obama said.

“In recent days, there have been misguided criticisms of this plan that echo the failed theories that helped lead us into this crisis — the notion that tax cuts alone will solve all our problems; that we can meet our enormous tests with half-steps and piecemeal measures; that we can ignore fundamental challenges such as energy independence and the high cost of health care and still expect our economy and our country to thrive.

“I reject these theories, and so did the American people when they went to the polls in November and voted resoundingly for change. They know that we have tried it those ways for too long. And because we have, our health-care costs still rise faster than inflation. Our dependence on foreign oil still threatens our economy and our security. Our children still study in schools that put them at a disadvantage. We’ve seen the tragic consequences when our bridges crumble and our levees fail.

“Every day, our economy gets sicker — and the time for a remedy that puts Americans back to work, jump-starts our economy and invests in lasting growth is now.”

The stimulus has failed and has probably made things worse.

Those of us who said do nothing were right. Instead of allowing this recession to play itself out, Obama has pushed to drag it out.

We are in real trouble and they are still pushing the remedies that make it worse. The sooner we get these people away from the levers of power, the better chance we have to recover. Fundamentally, the left still thinks, deep down, that Marxism works. They have never run a business, even a small one. They have never met a payroll. I’m still reading Steven Hayward’s Age of Reagan and it is interesting to see that the attitude toward Goldwater in 1964 was the same as the attitude toward Reagan in 1984 (amiable dunce) and is still the attitude. They think they are smarter. Remember Buckley’s comment that he would rather be ruled by the first 100 names in the Cambridge telephone book than by the Harvard faculty. Well, that is who is in charge now.

My new favorite song

Friday, October 2nd, 2009

Peggy Noonan doesn’t like this sort of thing but she is living in her New York City bubble. The people who live outside the east coast alternative universe know better. If someone doesn’t stop this runaway train, our children and grandchildren will blame us and rightly so.

Is this our future ?

Saturday, September 26th, 2009

Theodore Dalrymple, the non de plume of physician Anthony Daniels, has another piece today on the decline of Britain. I have previously commented on the British teenagers’ loss of history and the loss in the entire society, which has a much longer history to remember. He places much of the blame on the educational system.

Although we spend four times as much on education per head as in 1950, the illiteracy rate has not gone down. I used to try to plumb the depths (or shallows) of youthful British ignorance by asking my patients a few simple questions. Fifty percent responded to the question “What is arithmetic?” by answering “What is arithmetic?” It is not that they were good at doing something that they could not name: When I asked one young man, not mentally deficient, to multiply three by four, he replied “We didn’t get that far.”

That’s not very far. We are not much better.

The political system isn’t doing very well, either.

It is doubtful whether any major country has had a more incompetent leader than Gordon Brown for many years. The product of a pleasure-hating Scottish Presbyterian tradition, he behaves as if taxation were a moral good in itself, regardless of the uses to which it is put; he is widely believed to have taken lessons in how to smile, though he has not been an apt pupil, for he now makes disconcertingly odd grimaces at inappropriate moments. He is the only leader known to me who combines dourness with frivolity.

Early in his disastrous career in government he sold the country’s gold reserves at a derisory price, against all advice, driving the price lower by the manner in which he arranged the sale. A convenience-store owner couldn’t, and almost certainly wouldn’t, have done worse.

This sounds familiar. Barack Obama is weak in economics although he has a high opinion of himself in almost every sphere.

For example, he was famously asked by Charles Gibson in one of the debates his policy on capital gains taxes.

GIBSON: And in each instance, when the rate dropped, revenues from the tax increased; the government took in more money. And in the 1980s, when the tax was increased to 28 percent, the revenues went down.

So why raise it at all, especially given the fact that 100 million people in this country own stock and would be affected?

OBAMA: Well, Charlie, what I’ve said is that I would look at raising the capital gains tax for purposes of fairness.

And again:


GIBSON: But history shows that when you drop the capital gains tax, the revenues go up.

OBAMA: Well, that might happen, or it might not.

Yes, stuff happens and there is little reason to expect that Obama knows why.

Then we come to foreign policy. Today the Telegraph, in Britain, published this column on its web site.

Never in the history of the United States has a president worked so actively against the interests of his own people – not even Jimmy Carter.

Obama’s problem is that he does not know who the enemy is. To him, the enemy does not squat in caves in Waziristan, clutching automatic weapons and reciting the more militant verses from the Koran: instead, it sits around at tea parties in Kentucky quoting from the US Constitution. Obama is not at war with terrorists, but with his Republican fellow citizens. He has never abandoned the campaign trail.

I have to agree. His performance at the UN was depressing. I have previously expressed my concerns about this administration and its policy toward Israel.

I would suggest that Obama consider the consequences of convincing Israel that they are alone, or worse, that we sympathize with their enemies. For the consequences, you might read this report by Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

He expects, writes Martin Walker of United Press International,

some 16 million to 28 million Iranians dead within 21 days, and between 200,000 and 800,000 Israelis dead within the same time frame. The total of deaths beyond 21 days could rise very much higher, depending on civil defense and public health facilities, where Israel has a major advantage.

It is theoretically possible that the Israeli state, economy and organized society might just survive such an almost-mortal blow. Iran would not survive as an organized society. “Iranian recovery is not possible in the normal sense of the term,” Cordesman notes. The difference in the death tolls is largely because Israel is believed to have more nuclear weapons of very much higher yield (some of 1 megaton), and Israel is deploying the Arrow advanced anti-missile system in addition to its Patriot batteries. Fewer Iranian weapons would get through.

The report also points out that Israel, backed into a corner, would most likely strike at its other potential enemies, including hostile Arab states. The fallout would probably mean the end of the Age of Petroleum, since the oil fields in the Middle East would be unusable for decades.

I don’t think Obama is equipped to make these judgements. He is starting down a very dangerous road with no evidence that he understands the risks. Neither did Chamberlain.

In 1939, the appeasers had the excuse that World War I was widely believed to have arisen from hasty mobilization and misunderstanding that more time and patient negotiation might have avoided. We now have the experience of that failure of appeasement, especially when dealing with an opponent who lacks historical balance or who has been mislead to believe that he runs no risk of opposition. The president of Iran has shown lack of historical balance and he represents a regime that has as a spiritual tenet that martyrdom is to be desired. Militant Islam has an unreasoning hatred of Jews dating, I believe, back to a rejection of Mohammed as he was founding Islam as a derivation of Judaism. This has now reached a psychotic stage in which a nation state of 66 million is governed by a small clique who believe that a millennium will come about by civil disaster, such as nuclear war. We have never seen as dangerous a delusion in the minds of leaders so close to the possibility of such weapons.

We see western governments that are so inept that they cannot educate the populace and they cannot understand the basic facts of economics or foreign policy.

UPDATE: This discussion of the coming financial meltdown shows just how difficult this problem is. Do not expect to see any logical discussion of this from the left.