Archive for July, 2009

A serious question for health care reform

Monday, July 6th, 2009

Paul O’Neill has a serious set of questions about health care reform.


1.Which of the reform proposals will eliminate the millions of infections acquired at hospitals every year?

2. Which of the proposals will eliminate the annual toll of 300 million medication errors?

3. Which of the proposals will eliminate pneumonia caused by ventilators?

4. Which of the proposals will eliminate falls that injure hospital patients?

5. Which of the proposals will capture even a fraction of the roughly $1 trillion of annual “waste” that is associated with the kinds of process failures that these questions imply?

So far, the answer to each question is “none.”

Quality improvement is the stepchild of health care today. I spent a year at Dartmouth in 1994-95 to learn the methodology of quality improvement and then learned that no one was interested. The impression, I believe, was that quality improvement would be more expensive and no one wanted to spend the money. O’Neill’s point is that, ultimately, poor quality is more expensive but no one seems willing, with a few honorable exceptions, to learn if that is true.

So far, the health care reform proposed by Congress and Obama ignores the subject.

No one concerned with excellence in health care can trust these people to address the problems.

Government by Democrats in 2009

Monday, July 6th, 2009

We are in the midst of the worst financial crisis since 1929, being made worse in my opinion by the government’s feckless attempts at stimulus. The states have been called “laboratories of democracy” for many years and our two largest states have been governed the past 20 years by the Democratic Party. Since the Democratic Party has been in power in Washington for only the past three years, perhaps we should turn to the states to see what the future holds for us under Democrat control.

New York is a good example.

During the long years of Republican control, the all-white GOP “conference” would regularly bemoan its lack of diversity, and make extra efforts to recruit minority Senate candidates and hire minority staff.

During the first five months of this year, with the Senate under the control of its first African-American majority leader, Smith, top Democrats bemoaned the lack of minority Senate staffers.

But instead of trying to recruit new hires, they fired nearly 200 almost exclusively white workers and replaced them with a large number of minority employees, many of whom were seen by their fellow workers to be unskilled at their new jobs.

The move produced severe racial tensions, made worse by the fact that, as a high-level Democratic staffer confided, “We’ve been told to only hire minorities.”

We’ll see how much of a precedent that is over the next year. The first Supreme Court nominee by Obama is not reassuring. How does he think the future will play out ?

The Empire State — once a beacon of progressive state government to the nation — is on the brink of ruin. And it doesn’t look like anything can be done to stop it.

In two words: We’re doomed.

Well, California is the other large state with “progressive government.” How is it doing?
Things could be better

California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a fiscal emergency and ordered state offices closed three days a month to save money as state officials began paying bills with IOUS on Thursday.

Deep budget cuts have already forced California school districts to cancel summer school programs, moves that have affected — among others — elementary and middle school students in Los Angeles, which has the country’s second largest district.

What is the solution ? Why, raise taxes, of course.

But labor and education groups, health care and social service advocates and (a bit more quietly) some Democratic lawmakers continue to insist that tax hikes should be part of California’s solution to its $24.3 billion budget deficit.
“The solution to this budget problem is not to slash and burn education but to re-evaluate our revenue policy,” Jeff Freitas, a lobbyist for the California Federation of Teachers, told a legislative budget committee last week.

“There are a plethora of options that are being ignored that must be brought to the table.”

Did anyone think the teachers union lobbyist would be in favor of cutting education spending ? What about voters ? You know, the people who pay those taxes ?

voters rejected five ballot measures on May 19 that included $16 billion more in temporary extensions of the February tax increase

Gee, I thought the ballot propositions didn’t include a tax increase ! The ballot argument didn’t mention a tax increase. Maybe voters are starting to doubt the veracity of politicians. Well, they seem to have believed Obama last fall. I wonder how long that will last ? I’m not the only one.

A nice summary of the problems of California.

Is there a state that is not in big trouble ? Yes, Texas. Here’s one reason:

Texas is home to more applications for new nuclear plants than any other state, with more than 9,000 MW of new capacity under development. These investments are a direct result of Texas’ world leading competitive electricity market, which has lead to more investment in electric generation capacity than any other state.

Obama and the “no-nukes” movement

Sunday, July 5th, 2009

The New York Times has discovered, conveniently too late for the election, a college essay by Barack Obama which may explain some of his beliefs that are otherwise inexplicable.

Realist or dreamer, Mr. Obama has an interest in global denuclearization that arises from what can best be described as a lost chapter of his life. Though he has written two memoirs, he has volunteered few details about his two years at Columbia.

“People assume he’s a novice,” said Michael L. Baron, who taught Mr. Obama in a Columbia seminar on international politics and American policy around the time he wrote the Sundial article. “He’s been thinking about these issues for a long time. It’s not like one of his advisers said, ‘Why don’t you throw this out?’ ”

In a paper for Dr. Baron, Mr. Obama analyzed how a president might go about negotiating nuclear arms reductions with the Russians — exactly what he is seeking to do this week.

The Cold War is over but Obama seems to be stuck in his youthful enthusiasm for a nuclear freeze. I don’t believe for a moment that he has any intention of stopping Iran in their quest for the bomb but he is determined to reduce our own nuclear capability.

Maybe this is behind his otherwise mysterious unwillingness to consider nuclear power, a source of electricity free from the alleged greenhouses gas production.

Sarah Palin, libertarian

Saturday, July 4th, 2009

UPDATE: I’m not the only one thinking about this.

I’ve been thinking about the surprise announcement of Sarah Palin yesterday. It has stimulated a huge amount of speculation on both left and right. Both left and right wing blogs have long comment sections on posts about her announcement. Why did she do it ? There are a number of speculations. Certainly, she has been subject to an unbelievable amount of abuse, much of it obscene and/or delusional. Andrew Sullivan, for example, has ended whatever credibility he had remaining on the right by his fascination with the birth of Trig Palin. The David Letterman slur was obscene but that is not the worst of the harassment. She has been deluged with frivolous ethics complaints, none of which has been upheld but she and her husband have $500,000 in legal bills to pay. Even mainstream Democrats have been frothing at the mouth.

Some of the speculation is that the harassment has convinced her to quit politics. I would not blame her if that were true. There is another possibility, however. The other phenomenon of this spring has been the Tea Parties. They have also been an object of derision by the left. The left has called them “teabagging parties,” a reference to homosexual jokes about oral sex. At first, participants used the terms interchangeably being unaware of homosexual jokes. The political left is far more familiar with homosexual terminology, especially when it is scatological.

Though supported by Republican think tanks, it is a grass-roots movement comprised of independents, conservatives, and libertarians, many say. Few attending these events have protested before, says Donalsonville, Ga., organizer Becky Worsham, adding, “A common joke at our first one was, ‘Gosh, I’ve never protested anything in my life, and this feels pretty good.’ ”

The protesters’ concern, she says, is that Washington “will really bring our country down to where we’ll no longer be a superpower.”

The April 15 protests

As many as half a million people attended the April 15 protests, according to the conservative Pajamas TV network. Events ranged from amateurish to professional: One in Atlanta featured massive TV screens and professional bands, while another in Lake City, Wash., drew only two dozen protesters.

The significance of this movement is still not established but it could be important.

Many Republicans, including this one, are tired of the weakness of our candidates who, once elected, choose the same big spending, big government pathway to electoral success. This occurs even at the local level and the Bush Administration did little to rein in the big spending Republican Congress. The result was an inability to distinguish the two parties on the issue of big government and the loss of the majority in 2006. Now, there is a level of despair in Republican circles I haven’t seen before. The closest thing to it is the aftermath of the Nixon resignation.

There are many, many – many – Americans who are no longer impressed with the qualities even the smartest political pundits consider essential in our politicians. We’ve had all the politicians who do everything the way they are supposed to – and their record is inexpressibly unimpressive. Many people have reached the point of saying, Don’t tell me only a politician who follows your set of rules is good for me. The rule-followers are the ones who have given us a national deficit so colossal we almost certainly can’t recover from it without severe economic dislocation – and an anomic, irresponsible, ignorant, and yet irrationally arrogant electoral demographic that voted Barack Obama into office, and threatens to make sure that government of, by, and for the people shall, if they have anything to do with it, perish from the earth, by next Thursday – and covered in a “Townhall” by ABC.

What we are enduring today is the America that the politics-as-usual rule-followers have delivered for us. It is far from unreasonable to recognize that having a comfortably conventional political profile, one that pleases Charles Krauthammer and Rick Brookhiser, is no indicator that a politician will guard constitutionalism, limitations on government, and individual liberty.

I wonder if the next trend is one of libertarian revision, either within the party or as a third party. I also wonder if Sarah Palin sees this, as well. She really governed Alaska as a libertarian, given the level of federal control of the state’s economy. For example, she vetoed a bill that would have banned benefits for gay partners. Although that source grumbles that she was reluctant, that is just left wing politics.

In 1856, the Whig Party, which had been formed to support business interests and the development of new territory (by building roads and canals), collapsed because the members could not resolve the issue of slavery. There were southern slave owning members, as well as northern abolitionist members. The Compromise of 1850 had postponed the issue but by 1856 the party was over. From the shell of the Whigs came the abolitionist Republican Party than won the presidency in 1860. Might we be seeing something like this happening to the Republicans now ?

Dennis Hastert is largely responsible for the failure of George W Bush to veto spending bills as deficits piled up. Hastert convinced him that the key to continued Republican control of Congress was spending and improved relations with lobbyists, the so-called “K Street Project.” Unfortunately for this theory, Democrats are the natural allies of lobbyists and will always outbid Republicans in spending. Hastert’s own seat in Congress was lost to a Democrat in 2008, partly because of local scandals about Hastert’s family connections.

Might there be a libertarian future for the Republican Party ? They have to do better than the British Conservative Party which seems unable to represent traditional values voters in their concerns about the decline in patriotism and family values. Even feminists who might be considered opposed to Sarah’s positions, may rebell at the abuse she has received. We’ll see how that works out.

At the end of the Thatcher years Britain was transformed. Europe’s sickest economy had become its strongest. The recipe had been low taxes. Simple taxes. Effective regulation. Privatisation. Free trade. Reform of the trade union movement. Intolerance of inflation.
They were necessary things to have done and I don’t say that lightly. They saved Britain from terminal economic decline.?? But somehow they didn’t create a nation that was quite at ease with itself. Margaret Thatcher knew that herself and used her memoirs to regret that she hadn’t been able to initiate ‘Social Thatcherism’.

We know how that feels. We still have a greater pool of traditional values in the population than Britain, which has suffered from years of Labour progressive education. Here, education is still local although George Bush and Ted Kennedy tried to make it national. What we have now is the financial quagmire that has engulfed Britain and is engulfing us. What we need is libertarian reform, either within the Republican party or without it. Maybe Sarah Palin sees this, too.

Health care reform

Thursday, July 2nd, 2009

UPDATE: A bulletin from the NHS on how well single payer medicine works. IN France, the hospitals are described as spotless but patients there have free choice and competition.

A year ago, I wrote several posts on what I considered a useful model for reform of the US system. The present debate seems to be focused on everything but a viable model for reform. The Obama/Baucus plan that is slowly emerging from the Senate finance committee seems to be vague and there are aspects that seem to represent politics and nothing else. The “white paper” seems to be mostly propaganda and lacking in concrete proposals. It does point out that France spends about half of what we do on health care (page 15 chart)/ per capita with excellent results. Baucus’s “vision” continues the usual blather about providing everyone care at less cost.

It contains six “elements” that typically lack focus.

1. Individual Responsibility. Covering all Americans means the enrollment of every individual in some form of health care plan, private or public.

OK, I agree with that.

2 Strengthening the Employer-Based System. We must ensure the continued viability of the employer-based system — the principal source of health coverage
for most Americans — to allow workers to keep the insurance that they currently
have and value.

This is bogus. One of our problems is the employer-based system but, for Democrats, this means exempting union plans from any controls on utilization.

3. Guaranteed Access to Affordable Coverage for Individuals and Small
Business
.

This is the entire problem misrepresented as a factor. It is THE PROBLEM !

Here Baucus comes up with one concrete proposal.

the Health Insurance Exchange — will connect individuals and employers to insurance offered at local, state, regional, or national levels. Insurers offering coverage through the Exchange would need to meet certain requirements established by a new Independent Health Coverage Council.

This is basically what the Clinton Plan was about. It is too vague to even know what they are talking about. Presumably this is the “co-op” concept we have heard about.

4. Strengthening Public Programs. Existing public programs represent an effective and efficient way to increase access to coverage and decrease the number of
uninsured.

The existing public programs are certainly not efficient and Medicare is losing doctors at a rapid pace as they try to cut the budget by stiffing providers. Medicare will be out of funds in less than 10 years.


Offering individuals approaching age 65 the chance to buy into Medicare early and eliminating the requirement that disabled individuals wait two years to enroll in Medicare would ensure coverage to populations that the private market is under-serving.

These statements represent a big reason why Medicare is bankrupt. Adding beneficiaries without new funding is a terrible way to do business.

5. Focusing on Prevention and Wellness. Increased access to preventive care and wellness is another step that could be accomplished in the short term.

This is an old canard that has been proven to be ineffective in controlling costs. Early diagnosis in breast cancer will improve survival but whether it saves money is another matter.


Increasing the availability and effectiveness of primary care coverage could create a national
focus on maintaining wellness, rather than treating illness — which would improve
quality and reduce costs across the health care system.

This is utter bullshit but sounds good. The fatal flaw in the Canadian system is the emphasis on primary care with severe rationing of specialist care. Politics goes for the visible benefit and the long term benefit often is ignored.

6. Addressing Health Disparities. In our current health care system, racial and ethnic minorities disproportionately lack ready access to high-quality medical care.

This is standard political speech but means little. The urban underclass is the source of our poor life expectancy and child mortality figures but to expect that these people will take advantage of better access to care is naive and is the usual political pablum offered to rube voters.

None of this suggests that a useful plan will emerge from this committee.

My suggestions, which will go nowhere but which are based on 40 years of practice plus a graduate degree in health economics, are as follows.

1. The employment connection with health insurance must be broken. This can be done by forming large funds, like pension funds, to which employees can transfer their insurance plans. The Employer should be happy to do this as the plans will then be funded by payroll deduction, as they are now. The employer will no longer be expected to manage the plan. The same insurance company ASO (Administrative Service Organizations) that manages the employer plan can submit bids to manage the new funds. If the employee loses his job or changes jobs, the health plan remains the same.

2. Like in France and in Medicare, the fund will pay 80% of the approved charges for approved procedures and services. This will not be the total payment as co-pays and balance billing will be added. It does provide catastrophic insurance, which is what insurance should be.

3. Private insurance plans, chosen by the individuals, will contract with funds and the individuals to cover the remaining 20%. The same companies that provide “MediGap” insurance for Medicare beneficiaries could enter this market. For the poor, government subsidies can fill this gap.

4. The insurance funds will pay on a national fee schedule, which will be negotiated with provider organizations like hospital associations and medical associations. This fee schedule will resemble the indemnity-style health plans that were still around when I began practice. This pays a flat fee for each service. “Usual, customary and reasonable” fee payments have led to fee inflation and moral hazard. The flat fee will be on the low side but no lower than Medicare fees and without the hassle. The doctor can negotiate a higher fee with the patient and fees should be posted in the office. This is the only way we will ever get a market in medicine. The greatest benefit of such a system will be the open disclosure of charges. Only when prices are known can we have a market.

5. Balance billing, the charging of an agreed upon fee over and above the insurance payment will be permitted. If someone wants to see the best surgeon or internist in town, they will be expected to pay accordingly.

6. Patients will be expected to pay doctors for services at the time of service and they may seek reimbursement from the plan for covered services. This is why posted charges are important. France has a program where very large bills need not be paid first. The out-of-pocket payment can be capped.

7. Community clinics and HMOs will be permitted to do business as they do now with the insurance fund negotiating a rate of payment for coverage. The subscriber may be expected to pay extra for services not covered by the plan.

8. Drugs will be covered but co-payments will be expected for non-generic drugs. This will be far less expensive for younger patients but Medicare Part D has cost much less than expected.

9. Payments from the plan will be limited to services accepted as scientifically valid by evidence-based medical guidelines or other scientifically based guidelines.

10. A program to forgive medical student loans in return for adhering to the national fee schedule will be developed and extended to future medical students. Eventually, this should result in very low medical school tuition.

11. Ideally, Medicare, Medicaid and workers compensation should be brought under the fee schedule and the program of management of the health plans.