Archive for April, 2008

The last goalpost

Thursday, April 10th, 2008

UPDATE # 3 The London Times acknowledges that the Iraqi Army has cleared Bsra of militias and wonders why Maliki won when the British Army couldn’t.

UPDATE #2: The Iraqi Army has now rescued a kidnapped British journalist who had had been held two months by Shia gangs. It looks like they are still cleaning out Basra and Kevin got his hopes for defeat up too soon. This report also contradicts the defeat lobby.

UPDATE: Mickey Kaus Fisks that NYT report that got Kevin Drum so excited and it looks like the Times was wishing too much and reporting too little. Poor Kevin.

This could be the last goalpost in Iraq. If Sadr disbands the Mahdi Army, the civil war may be over. Maliki has stood up to the militias and the Sunnis are ready to join the government in earnest. Kevin Drum will be terribly disappointed.

Economics

Wednesday, April 9th, 2008

Those who have studied economics know that data is the most important part of any consideration. Talk is cheap. Data is all that counts. In that spirit, I offer this small contribution, which explains in one word the basis for estimates of our economic condition.“Our economy is the healthiest it has been in three decades.” (President Bill Clinton, State of the Union Address, January 23, 1996)“The bottom line is that this administration is the owner of the worst jobs record since Herbert Hoover.” (Senator Charles Schumer, Press Release, March 7, 2008)The difference ?

President’s Party Affiliation              

 1996-Democrat             2008-Republican

McCain, Iraq and Iran

Wednesday, April 9th, 2008

The Democrats seem to be pursuing a strategy of implying that Senator McCain is getting senile. They tried it with Reagan and it backfired in one debate. The latest is a series of statements disputing a comment McCain allegedly made confusing Sunni and Shia. Everybody paying attention knows that al Qeada is Sunni and Iran is Shia. The subtleties of radical jihadism seems to have eluded the masterminds of the Democratic Party. We know that the new chair of the House Intelligence Committee, a Democrat from Texas, doesn’t know the difference between the two divisions of Islam. If you look at his website, it’s easy to learn what is important.

4/2/2008 – The federal government has awarded more than $1 million in federal funds to the El Paso community for programs at UTEP, the El Paso Collaborative, and the Opportunity Center for the Homeless.

The issue is whether Iran is assisting the al Qeada Sunni terrorists in their war against us. The NY Sun   agrees with McCain. Certainly, we know that Iran assisted al Qeada fugitives when they were fleeing from Afghanistan after we defeated them and the Taliban in 2002. The NY Times, true to its agenda of opposing the war, attacks McCain for “misspeaking.”

This report from 2005 on connections between Iraq and Afghanistan attacks does not mention how the jihadis travel between Iraq and Afghanistan. Do they fly ? What is between Iraq and Afghanistan ? Iran.

In 1996, after the Taliban seized power, Osama bin Laden relocated to Afghanistan where he established a number of terrorist training camps. Al-Qaeda training attracted a steady stream of young Islamists, many of whom transited Iran. While Iranian border officials normally stamp passports, they made an exception for many Al-Qaeda terrorists. The 9-11 Commission explained how this facilitated Al-Qaeda operations.

The 9/11 Commission seemed to think Iran and al Qeada cooperated.

Between 1991 and 1996, Osama bin Laden lived in Sudan where he was protected by Hassan Abdullah at-Turabi, the leader of Sudan’s National Islamic Front, an Islamist movement. According to the 9-11 Commission, Sudanese officials facilitated meetings between al-Qaeda operatives and Iranian officials, a relationship which blossomed into tactical training: Turabi sought to persuade Shiites and Sunnis to put aside their divisions and join against the common enemy. In late 1991 or 1992, discussions in Sudan between al Qaeda and Iranian operatives led to an informal agreement to cooperate in providing support—even if only training—for actions carried out primarily against Israel and the United States. Not long afterward, senior al Qaeda operatives and trainers traveled to Iran to receive training in explosives.

In the fall of 1993, another such delegation went to the Bekaa Valley in Lebanon for further training in explosives as well as in intelligence and security. Bin Ladin reportedly showed particular interest in learning how to use truck bombs such as the one that had killed 241 U.S. Marines in Lebanon in 1983. The relationship between al Qaeda and Iran demonstrated that Sunni-Shia divisions did not necessarily pose an insurmountable barrier to cooperation in terrorist operations.

So who is senile ? McCain or the people who get their intelligence from the NY Times?

The return of appeasement

Monday, April 7th, 2008

Candidate Obama says he is in favor of withdrawal from Iraq in spite of the consequences although he recently said he would want to keep a “strike force” ready, presumably to reinvade if necessary. The theoretical basis for this sort of thing seems to be coming from the leftist blogosphere and an entire generation of isolationists and appeasers. A common theme is hatred of “neocons.”
International Herald Tribune columnist Roger Cohen, for instance, notes that “neocon has morphed into an all-purpose insult for anyone who still believes that American power is inextricable from global stability and still thinks the muscular anti-totalitarian U.S. interventionism that brought down Slobodan Milosevic has a place, and still argues, like Christopher Hitchens, that ousting Saddam Hussein put the United States ‘on the right side of history.’

The theory seems to be proclaimed in a book by Matt Yglesias. The similarity to the 1930s is striking.

The long tradition of liberal anti-totalitarianism thus appears to have come to an end, at least in mainstream political rhetoric. What about human rights groups like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch? Largely staffed by leftists, these days they escape the neoconservative charge because they generally presume moral equivalence between democracies and anti-American thuggocracies. Amnesty, for instance, has referred to Guantánamo as a “gulag” and Human Rights Watch has issued more press releases about the lack of gay rights in the United States than any other country on earth.

Iran, of course “has no gays” so it is not a problem there. Only here.

We’ll see how it plays out over the next six months. If the American people are ready to retreat from the world, Obama will be the next president.

How to make a recession into a depression

Monday, April 7th, 2008

UPDATE: Nancy Pelosi has taken another Smoot Hawley step by blocking a vote on the Columbia trade agreement. The FARC Caucus in the Democratic party is still strong.

The White House has a comment about Pelosi and her rule changing.

MORE EVIDENCE: The Columbia FTA is important to Caterpillar which has 50,000 union jobs, but you’d never know it.

There is an unending debate about just why the Great Depression occurred. We have had financial panics ever since the colonies declared independence. Severe ones occurred in 1893 and 1907. There was a severe recession after World War I.

One school of thought believes that the Glass-Steagall Act, that set up the Federal Reserve Bank, was responsible because the Fed panicked and contracted the money supply just when the need for capital was greatest. Amity Schlaes, in her book The Forgotten Man, believes it was the ill-advised actions of Hoover and Roosevelt that tipped us over the edge. Everyone, however, agrees that the Smoot-Hawley Tariff, which Hoover signed in 1930, was a big part of the problem.

One thousand twenty-eight economists in the United States, organized by Paul Douglas, Irving Fisher, James TFG Wood, Frank Graham, Ernest Patterson, Henry Seager, Frank Taussig, and Clair Wilcox, and representing the “Who’s Who” of the profession, signed a petition asking President Hoover to veto the legislation (New York Times, 5 May 1930)

Now, we have the other political party demanding a similar economic measure that will have similar effects on world trade. Fortunately, John McCain is speaking out against protectionism but a President Obama, in spite of his advisers, may do a Hoover and worsen the coming recession precipitously.

Santayana famously said, “Those who do not remember history, are condemned to repeat it.”

The Chinese Olympics

Sunday, April 6th, 2008

This is not a good way to start the Olympic year with China. There already are heads of state boycotting. The Chinese are particularly concerned about face. This could get ugly.

McCain genes breed true

Saturday, April 5th, 2008

John McCain was not my candidate this year although I worked for his primary campaign in 2000. Immigration and campaign finance reform were two reasons. One reason to support him is the family genes he carries. His father and grandfather were Navy admirals. Now, his son, in his inimitable way, is carrying on the family tradition in more ways than one. Even through their anti-war sniffpeckery, you can hear the NY Times reporters trying to understand this kid and respecting him tremendously. He sounds like presidential material in about 2027 to me.

More Hillary lies

Saturday, April 5th, 2008

Hillary Clinton is now telling a story on the campaign trail that appears to be a lie. The story is about a pregnant woman turned away by a hospital in Ohio because she was uninsured and did not have $100. The trouble is that the story, if true, would result in severe federal criminal prosecution of the hospital and any doctors involved. That is because the law, called EMTALA or Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act, does not allow any hospital emergency room to turn away a pregnant woman because of inability to pay.

Emergency medical condition means—

(i) Placing the health of the individual (or, with respect to a pregnant woman, the health of the woman or her unborn child) in serious jeopardy;

This is the language of the Act.

More important in this particular case is the fact that the woman was not turned away and she did have insurance. Apparently, both the woman and the child eventually died but there is doubt that the hospital was in any way at fault. Just as in the case of Al Gore in 2000 with his dog’s arthritis medicine and a few other tall tales, fact checking is something Hillary feels is unnecessary

Boat for sale.

Friday, April 4th, 2008

Today, I saw in Latitude 38 that Maltese Falcon is for sale.

Maltese Falcon

 

We saw her in Venice last summer. Here is a view from our hotel window as she was pulling out.

 

Maltese Falcon in Venice

 

The price is steep but the yacht is irreplaceable.

April 4, 2008 – South Pacific

You could be the proud owner of Maltese Falcon.

Photo Courtesy Maltese Falcon© 2008 Latitude 38 Publishing Co., Inc.

 

Tom Perkins, the Belvedere-based owner of the 289-ft Dyna-Rig Maltese Falcon, has confirmed reports that his big boat is up for sale. He’s been quoted by other sources as saying that much of the joy for him was the project itself, and that he’s now interested in submarines. Perkins has always enjoyed innovation and riding the cutting edge. Some folks find it shocking that he would be willing to sell Falcon. Not us. After all, consider the asking price of 120 million euros. If other reports are to believed, he paid 120 million dollars for the boat, so if she sold for close to the asking price, he would have realized close to a 50% profit. That’s nothing for even a venture capitalist to sneeze at. In addition, it can sometimes be more difficult to find buyers for $170,000 boats than $170 million boats. But it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. 

 

See you on the water. If you wonder who can afford this thing, he’s a partner in Kleiner, Perkins, Caulfield who gave us companies like Google and Apple.

Obama’s Iraq policy

Friday, April 4th, 2008

Another Obama foreign policy advisor has now advocated keeping troops there for years. Which is better; a president who doesn’t know how to conduct a military policy, or one who lies about it ?