Posts Tagged ‘science’

Global Warming and Cooling.

Sunday, October 20th, 2013

I have been frustrated by the antics of the AGW alarmists. Scientific American, for example, has lost whatever reputation it once had for objective science. In an another example, the actions of Michael Mann should make for an interesting discovery in his suit against Mark Steyn.

Today, I find a nice discussion of global warming and cooling over the past epoch. The Greenland ice cores are, or should be, the gold standard of temperature measurement. For example.

Summary:
Records of past temperature, precipitation, atmospheric trace gases, and other aspects of climate and environment derived from ice cores drilled on glaciers and ice caps around the world. Parameter keywords describe what was measured in this data set. Additional summary information can be found in the abstracts of papers listed in the data set citations.

Now, to the data.

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The War on Drugs

Thursday, August 15th, 2013

My sentiments on the whole drug question have been influenced by some experience with the medical aspect of the problem. Drugs are slipping out of any control due to developments in synthetic variations of older substances that stimulate brain chemistry, sometimes in unknown ways. The traditional drugs, if we can use that term, are also slipping out of control with Mexican drug wars replacing the Columbian cartels even more violent than their predecessors.

What about marijuana ? It is widely used by the younger generation and, while I do think there are some harmful consequences, especially in potential schizophrenics, the fact is that the laws are widely ignored and do little good and much harm. First, what about the link to psychosis ?

Epidemiological studies suggest that Cannabis use during adolescence confers an increased risk for developing psychotic symptoms later in life. However, despite their interest, the epidemiological data are not conclusive, due to their heterogeneity; thus modeling the adolescent phase in animals is useful for investigating the impact of Cannabis use on deviations of adolescent brain development that might confer a vulnerability to later psychotic disorders. Although scant, preclinical data seem to support the presence of impaired social behaviors, cognitive and sensorimotor gating deficits as well as psychotic-like signs in adult rodents after adolescent cannabinoid exposure, clearly suggesting that this exposure may trigger a complex behavioral phenotype closely resembling a schizophrenia-like disorder. Similar treatments performed at adulthood were not able to produce such phenotype, thus pointing to a vulnerability of the adolescent brain towards cannabinoid exposure.

This suggests that adult use may be less harmful.

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Why Obamacare is collapsing.

Tuesday, July 9th, 2013

Government is not very good at constructing software or IT systems. The FBI spent a decade with a troubled software project, then abandoned it.

Some FBI officials began raising doubts about the bureau’s attempts to create a computerized case management system as early as 2003, two years before the $170 million project was abandoned altogether, according to a confidential report to the House Appropriations Committee.

By 2004, the report found, the FBI had identified 400 problems with early versions of the troubled software — but never told the contractor. The bureau also went ahead with a $17 million testing program last December, even though it was clear by then that the software would have to be scrapped, according to the review.

The 32-page report — prepared by the House committee’s Surveys and Investigations staff and obtained by The Washington Post — indicates that the FBI passed up numerous chances to cut its losses with the doomed Virtual Case File (VCF), instead forging ahead with a system that ultimately cost taxpayers more than $100 million in wasted expenditures.

This is the history of complex government projects like this. They will not hire private companies and let them design these projects. Banks use ATM software that is far more complex and which works reliably.

Now Obamacare is the latest failure. I have been predicting this for a year. The electronic medical record software is another boondoggle. It increases workload and is not secure. Now the exchange IT systems are not ready and will not be for a decade, if ever.

“It’s the joyous, simultaneous, nonlinear equation from hell,” said Kip Piper, a former top official at HHS and OMB who is now a consultant in close contact with IT vendors. Piper said it’s no surprise that the administration has given up on certain functions given the technological complexity needed and the short time-frame.

But the long-term nature of the bad news could be good news for those who hope that the new marketplaces will launch in some form on time.

The struggles with technology and administrative complexity have not come as a recent surprise to administration officials; they’ve been negotiating them for months already. By eliminating non-essential tasks, they may be violating the letter of the health reform law, with its rigorous timetables and multiple requirements, but they may be more likely to get the core functions right.

Or wrong as the case may be.

The FBI experience is revealing:

The system was part of Trilogy, a $581 million FBI program that includes a new computer network and thousands of new high-speed personal computers for agents and analysts. VCF would have been the final major step in the upgrade, providing a modern database for storing case information and allowing agents to share and search files electronically.

Numerous outside experts and panels have criticized the FBI’s paper-based records system as outmoded and inefficient, and the commission that investigated the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks concluded that the shortcomings may have contributed to the failure to detect the al Qaeda plot. The Justice Department’s inspector general warned in February that the FBI’s continuing technology problems had “national security implications” and that agents were “significantly hampered” in their efforts to prevent terrorism and combat other serious crimes.

The new report, which is not scheduled for public release, reveals that “some officials involved in VCF’s development began to see problems” in early 2003, about a year after the FBI and its contractor, Science Applications International Corp., began focusing on creating the case management software.

That report is from 2005. My daughter is an FBI agent. They finally abandoned the whole thing last year and have begun from scratch.

Obamacare will not be functional by 2020. They will lie about it and fake it but the thing will be a complete mess.

Magan McArdle has more on the changes. All that is happening is that all cost control is stripped out. All that is left is the spending.

Schizophrenia and civil rights.

Wednesday, December 19th, 2012

In June 1962, I had just finished a year of active duty in the Air Force (actually 9 months) and was looking for a job until I went back to medical school in September. I had been pulled out when the reserves were called up by Kennedy in the wake of the Berlin Wall, built by the Russians in August.

I found an ad in the LA Times for medical students to work at the VA hospital in west Los Angeles. I was a medical student although I had had only one month of medical school. I had, however, been a corpsman in the Air Force so had a little more clinical experience than many first year medical students.

I applied and was accepted. I learned the job was to do annual physical exams on 200 chronic schizophrenics since the psychiatry residents, in the grip of the psychoanalytic phase of psychiatry, did not want to do so. I started about the 15th of June and soon met my boss, a professor of psychiatry at UCLA named George L Harrington.

He was a striking individual, a big man who walked with a pronounced limp from a previous femur fracture. The effect of this combination was powerful on the chronic schizophrenics of Building 206 at the Sawtelle VA Hospital.

Harrington was one of the two or three most impressive men I ever met in medicine. He had trained as an analyst and his father was one of the first lay analysts, a former Baptist minister. Harrington had met Sigmund Freud and actually sat on his knee as a child. He grew up near the Menninger Clinic in Kansas and went to Kansas Medical School. He told me that one of his first summers in medical school, he got a job at the state mental hospital and tried his psychoanalytic theories out on chronic psychotic patients. They didn’t work. When summer was over and the state psychiatrists returned from vacation, they treated one depressed female patient with shock therapy. Harrington had spent the summer trying analysis on her with no success. With one ECT session she was much improved. That was enough to convince him that analysis did not work, no matter that the psychoanalytic school of psychiatry had taken over the specialty and the departments of all the medical schools.

Harrington was sure this was all wrong and was convinced that schizophrenia was an organic disease. He told me that it might even be a deficiency of an unknown vitamin. It wasn’t so many years since beri-beri and pellagra had been discovered to be vitamin deficiencies. I have previously referred to this experience, and I am convinced that he was on the right track when most psychiatrists were wrong.

Unfortunately, the psychiatry profession held on to psychoanalytic thinking far too long. A friend of mine from medical school is an analyst and has made a good living from it in Malibu. That is a good choice of location since analysis works best on rich mildly neurotic patients. Psychotics tend to be poor and difficult to work with. Now, with huge advances in neurobiology there is more hope but the public is still reluctant to trust psychiatrists with any authority. I am afraid that the profession is still suspect from the years of the Freudian blind alley.

A fellow named Clayton Cramer, who has a schizophrenic brother named Ron, has written an excellent book about the legal history of the deinstitutionalization movement that emptied the mental hospitals since 1960. On his blog, he posts that the shooter in Connecticut may have been taking Fanapt, an antipsychotic drug that is prescribed for schizophrenia. A rather hysterical post on what looks like an anti-treatment site alleges that SSRIs, a class of drug that is unrelated to anti-psychotics, are responsible for mass shooting incidents. It is this sort of misinformation that muddies the waters around the issue of violence and mental illness. The drug, iloperidone is an “atypical anti-psychotic” which means it is a serotonin receptor antagonist. It was nothing to do with SSRIs, which are selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors. The effects are very different as are the mechanism.

The battle for intelligent treatment of schizophrenics goes on.

A summary of treatment options does not mention the most serious problem. That is that schizophrenics commonly stop taking the drug, either because they feel fine and believe they no longer need it, or because they have no insight into their condition and refuse the drugs unless coerced. This is the reason why commitment, even outpatient commitment which involves supervision of the drug taking, is desirable.

The Connecticut Massacre

Saturday, December 15th, 2012

There is information still coming to light about this awful case. Early reports, such as the name of the shooter and the alleged murder of the father, were predictably wrong. It turns out that the shooter, named Adam Lanza, a 20 year old with a history of odd behavior and some evidence of mental illness, such as autism, was living with his mother who was his first victim. There are a number of suggestive reports, that she decided to “stay home to care for” her 20 year old son.

The treatment of severe mental illness in this country has been altered for the worse by a movement that began in the 1960s when mental illness began to be described as a “civil rights ” issue. Several books and movies described abuse of power in commitment of the mentally ill. The first such movie was “The Snake Pit” in which a young woman is committed for what sounds like schizophrenia. The treatment of the time (1948) can be seen as barbaric but there was nothing else available. She did recover, although we know that without adequate treatment, recovery from schizophrenia is unlikely.

The movie that really devastated the mental hospital system was called “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” and starred Jack Nicholson.

As I type this, a black professor of psychiatry is talking on the TV and discussing gun control !! His mention of mental illness is brief and noncommittal.

The movie was powerful in showing the Nicholson character as a guy who just is “different” and harmless.

The film was the second to win all five major Academy Awards (Best Picture, Actor in Lead Role, Actress in Lead Role, Director, and Screenplay) following It Happened One Night in 1934, an accomplishment not repeated until 1991 by The Silence of the Lambs.

In 1963 Oregon, Randle Patrick “Mac” McMurphy (Jack Nicholson), a recidivist anti-authoritarian criminal serving a short sentence on a prison farm for statutory rape of a 15-year-old girl, is transferred to a mental institution for evaluation. Although he does not show any overt signs of mental illness, he hopes to avoid hard labor and serve the rest of his sentence in a more relaxed hospital environment.
McMurphy’s ward is run by steely, unyielding Nurse Mildred Ratched (Louise Fletcher), who employs subtle humiliation, unpleasant medical treatments and a mind-numbing daily routine to suppress the patients. McMurphy finds that they are more fearful of Ratched than they are focused on becoming functional in the outside world. McMurphy establishes himself immediately as the leader; his fellow patients include Billy Bibbit (Brad Dourif), a nervous, stuttering young man; Charlie Cheswick (Sydney Lassick), a man disposed to childish fits of temper; Martini (Danny DeVito), who is delusional; Dale Harding (William Redfield), a high-strung, well-educated paranoid; Max Taber (Christopher Lloyd), who is belligerent and profane; Jim Sefelt (William Duell); and “Chief” Bromden (Will Sampson), a silent American Indian believed to be deaf and mute.

Here is the picture of mental illness as a matter of civil rights. It was shown in 1975 when the deinstitutionalizing was already well along and it convinced the public, few of whom know anything of psychology, that mental hospitals should be closed. State governors, like Ronald Reagan in California, were only too happy to oblige. This is why I was not a Reagan fan before he was elected in 1980.

The new drugs, like Thorazine made all this possible. Patients on Thorazine made almost miraculous recoveries. at least until the side effects appeared.

The introduction of chlorpromazine into clinical use has been described as the single greatest advance in psychiatric care, dramatically improving the prognosis of patients in psychiatric hospitals worldwide[citation needed]; the availability of antipsychotic drugs curtailed indiscriminate use of electroconvulsive therapy and psychosurgery, and was one of the driving forces behind the deinstitutionalization movement.

Actually ECT or “shock therapy” was, and remains, effective for severe depression. When used on psychotics like schizophrenics, it often provided a period of a “lucid interval” that lasted for hours when the psychosis seemed to relent. The symptoms recurred but the hope of longer intervals resulted in repeated sessions. It was often depicted with convulsions and other horrendous effects but, in reality, anesthesia and muscle relaxants were used to avoid such scenes. Even insulin coma, which has a risk of damage from low blood glucose, was effective for periods when nothing else worked.

The alternative offered was outpatient centers, in California authorized by The Short-Doyle Act of 1957. There was never enough money and governors saw the closing of state hospitals as a budget issue, not a medical issue.

Throughout the 1970s and 1980s counties contended that the state was not providing adequate funds for community mental health programs. In addition, several counties were receiving less funds on a population basis than other counties. This disparity was addressed, with varying levels of success, in both the 1970s and the 1980s with the allocation of “equity funds” to certain counties. Realignment enacted in 1991 has made new revenues available to local governments for mental health programs, but, according to local mental health administrators, funding has lagged behind demand.

And As a result of declining hospital population, three hospitals (Modesto, DeWitt, and Mendocino) were closed. Legislative intent was to have the budget savings from the closures go to local programs. The “money was to follow the patient.” This did not happen in 1972 and 1973 as a result of the Governor’s veto.

The patients released from state hospitals ended up living in the streets as “the homeless problem” exploded. Others filled the jails. In 2000 I was told by directors of homeless shelters in Los Angeles that 60% of the homeless were psychotic, 60% were drug addicts and half of each group was both. About 10% of the homeless are neither and are quickly moved to shelters and “SRO” hotels, especially if there are children.

What percent of shizophrenics are violent or capable of it ? A national study suggests that the number may be higher than we are usually told.

The 6-month prevalence of any violence was 19.1%, with 3.6% of participants reporting serious violent behavior. Distinct, but overlapping, sets of risk factors were associated with minor and serious violence. “Positive” psychotic symptoms, such as persecutory ideation, increased the risk of minor and serious violence, while “negative” psychotic symptoms, such as social withdrawal, lowered the risk of serious violence. Minor violence was associated with co-occurring substance abuse and interpersonal and social factors. Serious violence was associated with psychotic and depressive symptoms, childhood conduct problems, and victimization.

Since schizophrenia is life-long, usually beginning in teenage years in males and a bit later in females, the total period of exposure to the risk of violent behavior is high. Treatment with modern drugs reduces this considerably but most schizophrenics who are not under good supervision do not take their drugs.

The mother of the shooter was the registered owner of three guns, two of them pistols and one a “bushmaster” rifle. These are military lookalikes that are mostly in 5.56 NATO round calibres. They are also very expensive rifles. The rifle found in the shooter’s care was described as .223 calibre and the Bushmaster site does not include any of this calibre. UPDATE: I did not recognize the .223 as the same calibre as the 5.56 NATO round. It is the same. The .223 is in inches and 5.56 is millimeters. A momentary lapse.

He did not use the rifle anyway but what was the mother doing buying this for her autistic son? Pistols might have been for her own protection but the rifle doesn’t make sense except as evidence of enabling behavior by the mother.

I will add to this post as more information comes out. This looks to me like an incident of mass violence by a schizophrenic 20 year-old male with possible assistance by his mother in allowing him access to guns.

The mother is now being described as a “survivalist” and used to target shooting. That does not explain why she had guns around her psychotic son. “Autism” does not develop during teenage years. It is a phenomenon that is recognized in infancy. The term may have been used by the older brother as it is a less “disreputable” term for schizophrenia. If this represents a form of denial by the family, it may be significant.

Bioengineering is coming fast.

Tuesday, October 30th, 2012

An interesting article from bbc explains how concrete treated with a species of bacillus can “heal concrete” cracks by making more limestone.

Experimental concrete that patches up cracks by itself is to undergo outdoor testing.

The concrete contains limestone-producing bacteria, which are activated by corrosive rainwater working its way into the structure.

The new material could potentially increase the service life of the concrete – with considerable cost savings as a result.

The work is taking place at Delft Technical University, the Netherlands.

It is the brainchild of microbiologist Henk Jonkers and concrete technologist Eric Schlangen.

If all goes well, Dr Jonkers says they could start the process of commercialising the system in 2-3 years.

From the article, it sounds like these are not engineered bacteria but engineering may increase yield.

“Micro-cracks” are an expected part of the hardening process and do not directly cause strength loss. Fractures with a width of about 0.2mm are allowed under norms used by the concrete industry.

But over time, water – along with aggressive chemicals in it – gets into these cracks and corrodes the concrete.

“For durability reasons – in order to improve the service life of the construction – it is important to get these micro-cracks healed,” Dr Jonkers told BBC News.

Bacterial spores and the nutrients they will need to feed on are added as granules into the concrete mix. But water is the missing ingredient required for the microbes to grow. Concrete is the world’s most popular building material, but cracking is a problem

So the spores remain dormant until rainwater works its way into the cracks and activates them. The harmless bacteria – belonging to the Bacillus genus – then feed on the nutrients to produce limestone.

The bacterial food incorporated into the healing agent is calcium lactate – a component of milk. The microbes used in the granules are able to tolerate the highly alkaline environment of the concrete.

The cost will be high per unit but in the overall scheme of things, reduction in maintenance and longer functional life will dwarf cost issues.

Far out there.

Saturday, October 20th, 2012

Once again, Craig Venter is looking for new challenges. The latest may be Martian DNA.

I have thought for some time that life on Mars is going to consist of microorganisms and be buried several feet below the surface of the planet soil. I have even blogged about it before.

Now, there is a possibility of a nucleotide sequencer that could go to Mars on the next probe in 2018.

In what could become a race for the first extraterrestrial genome, researcher J. Craig Venter said Tuesday that his Maryland academic institute and his company, Synthetic Genomics, would develop a machine capable of sequencing and beaming back DNA data from the planet.

Separately, Jonathan Rothberg, founder of Ion Torrent, a DNA sequencing company, is collaborating on an effort to equip his company’s “Personal Genome Machine” for a similar task.

“We want to make sure an Ion Torrent goes to Mars,” Rothberg told Technology Review.

Although neither team yet has a berth on a Mars rocket, their plans reflect the belief that the simplest way to prove there is life on Mars is to send a DNA sequencing machine.

“There will be DNA life forms there,” Venter predicted Tuesday in New York, where he was speaking at the Wired Health Conference.

Venter said researchers working with him have already begun tests at a Mars-like site in the Mojave Desert. Their goal, he said, is to demonstrate a machine capable of autonomously isolating microbes from soil, sequencing their DNA, and then transmitting the information to a remote computer, as would be required on an unmanned Mars mission. Heather Kowalski, a spokeswoman for Venter, confirmed the existence of the project but said the prototype system was “not yet 100 percent robotic.”

Doing this on Mars would avoid the problem of contamination by earth organisms. New life forms that don’t use DNA might be a problem but most people who have thought about this believe that DNA is the genetic material of all life forms. Of course, protein, which may have been the original genetic material on earth could also be the Martian equivalent.

We are starting to see commercial spacecraft develop and one was used to reach the international space station recently. A Mars mission is another order of complexity but by 2018, it may be an option.

UPDATE: A new report describes obtaining natural gas (methane) from coal using bacteria or archea.

Many coal beds contain large amounts of methane that can be harvested by drilling wells. In recent decades, researchers have demonstrated that a large fraction of the natural gas found in the coal beds is produced by naturally occurring microörganisms that feed on coal, and they have found ways to stimulate the microbes to produce more methane. Luca Technologies, based in Golden, Colorado, is using this approach to increase production from coal beds with existing methane wells. Another company, Next Fuel, based in Sheridan, Wyoming, recently showed that it could use similar technology to produce methane from coal beds that didn’t already have methane in them, raising the possibility that vast amounts of coal that’s currently too expensive to mine could be converted into natural gas.

What will we find on Mars that might be an analogous system ?

Craig Venter and biofuels

Monday, October 15th, 2012

Biofuels have gotten somewhat of a bad rep with conservatives because they are linked to Obama’s green energy boondoggles. Steve Hayward, at Powerline, thinks that success will be enough to turn the greenies against them. First they will be genetically engineered and will be developed by “Big Oil” partnering with entrepreneurs like Craig Venter who deciphered the human genome with private resources. He was in competition with the government funded “Human Genome Project.” My book review of Venter’s autobiography is here.

Venter does well in explaining his research and the article follows it well.

Venter said in an interview, “It’s pretty obvious that there’s nothing in the natural world to make the levels that are needed,” and he pointed to algae oil yield volumes needing approximately 20,000 gallons per acre equivalent of algae.

Venter and his research team, of course, in spring 2010, successfully created the first synthetic bacterial cell, which was controlled completely by a synthetic genome. Or as Venter explained it in his recent interview, as the first cell “to have a computer for a parent,” or “designed DNA on a living system.” Venter now says he has increasingly realized that a fully synthetic cell is the way to go to create competitive algae fuel. When it comes to tweaking naturally occurring algae cells, he says, “you’ll never get there with that. We need a fundamental change to how we approach all this.”

This will be enough to antagonize the Luddite Greenies who are ideologically hostile to genetic engineering. Some writers are already predicting problems.

Venter, the first mapper of the human genome and creator of the first synthetic cell (pictured above), said his scientific team and ExxonMobil have failed to find naturally occurring algae strains that can be converted into a commercial-scale biofuel. ExxonMobil and Venter’s La Jolla, Ca.-based Synthetic Genomics Inc., or SGI, continue to attempt to manipulate natural algae, but he said he already sees the answer elsewhere — in the creation of a man-made strain. “I believe that a fully synthetic cell approach will be the best way to get to a truly disruptive change,” Venter told me in an email exchange.

Venter made his remarks before a conference this week on the future of energy at the New America Foundation in Washington, D.C., and in subsequent emailed replies to questions.

When announced in July 2009, the Venter-ExxonMobil alliance of colossals attracted wide publicity. It called for ExxonMobil to spend up to $600 million if publicly undisclosed milestones were reached in the lab. The Wall Street Journal said the partnership might signal “a coming of age” for algae biofuel. Greenbang fretted that the alliance might actually prove “unholy,” but not Gigaom, which said it could be “algae’s big break.”

The terms of the alliance omit the fully synthetic approach that Venter is now advocating, so he is conducting “an ongoing dialog” with Exxon about a new agreement, he said. He appeared to suggest that such a new compact would require more Exxon investment.

If I were in charge of investing in alternate energy research, I would take what Venter says very seriously.

I assume that our skill set in this area has been one of the attractions for Exxon to work with us. Our success at building the first synthetic cell is only from last year and had not been achieved when we formed the agreement between SGI and Exxon. So I would say it is an ongoing dialog.

The future lies with algae and modifications of coal. Ethanol is a dead end. Venter is not the only one interested.

One of the dangers of using the synthetic algae cells is the fear that the cells could somehow be let loose on the outside world, which Venter admits could wreak havoc like turning the oceans into a sea of lipids. But Venter says that designing an organism that has self-destructive properties (it can’t live outside a lab, or it dies with a certain time period) could contain such an organism.

Algae oil company Solazyme, went public this year, and plans to commercialize its algae fuel in the coming years. Solazyme tweaks existing efficient algal strains and grows its designer algae in fermentation tanks without sunlight by feeding it sugar and then using existing industrial equipment extracts the oil. Solazyme’s stock is trading a bit under $10, way down from its IPO price of $18.

I would bet on Venter, first of all because he thinks in terms of private, profit making business. His record is pretty impressive and he has hired a lot of the world’s experienced scientists. I have previously written a number of blog posts on related topics, here, and here, and here, and here.

It’s interesting that the Titanic is being eaten by “Rusticles” that that are eating the iron in the hull. Bacteria that eat iron in an oxygen-free environment are only one of the marvels that are being discovered in the depths of the ocean and in hot vents in volcanic pools.

Decision theory

Sunday, July 8th, 2012

About 17 years ago, I spent a year at Dartmouth Medical School getting another degree in medical outcomes research. I had retired from the practice of surgery after a 14 hour spine fusion. In college, I had a fall in gymnastics class that sent me to the student health center. They x-rayed my neck but not my back below the neck. When I began medical school, we all had to have chest x-rays and mine showed that the fall had caused a three level compression fracture in my thoracic spine. After 18 years in practice and 25 years of standing at an operating table, I had begun to have trouble with my back. It began with pain but continued to signs of spinal cord compression. In 1994, I went to UC San Francisco to consult David Bradford, who had written a number of papers on newer techniques in the surgery I needed. He agreed that I needed it and we arranged for me to have the surgery after Christmas 1994. It involved a lengthy recovery so I retired from my practice and turned it over to a younger associate. I had planned to return part time and see office patients only but he had other ideas, which were not well thought out but there was little I could do about it.

I had been interested in medical quality measurement for years. Now, with no activity planned once I recovered, I got interested in the Dartmouth program. It was called “Center for Evaluative Clinical Sciences,” a rather clumsy name. It is now called something else, but the idea is the same. Jim Weinstein, who is now CEO of the Dartmouth-Hitchcock medical center, was in my class that began in 1994.

The program included some remedial math for us oldsters. Although I had been an engineer it had been in the 1950s. We got a lot of statistics education and some health policy. The Dartmouth folks had been involved in the design of Hillary Clinton’s health plan and I had some fundamental disagreements about policy with them. Like so many academics, they were convinced that they knew how to run a top-down system and I was not so sure. However, the methodology training was, I thought, to be invaluable to me.

Two new areas, in my own experience, were very enlightening. One was survey design, in which I learned a lot about surveys, and incidentally, about polling. The other was decision theory. I had had no idea how important this was to be in health care.

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Why socialized medicine is a bad idea.

Tuesday, November 1st, 2011

For many years the term “Socialized Medicine” has been a watchword for reactionary and out of date doctors who think we still live in an era of self-reliance. Everybody knows that health care should be a communitarian responsibility because no one can afford their own healthcare. I can’t afford a car crash, either, but I have car insurance for that.

Now, we have evidence that we can’t afford, as individuals, community health care either. The federal government now has a powerful agency named “United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF), which by its name one would think is in charge of making sure we get our preventive medicine testing as advocated by Nancy Pelosi. Except Nancy has changed her mind.

The Obamacare legislation has transformed the USPSTF from its former status as a mere (one might say milquetoasty) advisory board, which made recommendations on preventive health that doctors and patients could take or leave alone, into an extraordinarily powerful GOD panel (Government Operatives Deliberating) that determines, definitively, which preventive services are to be covered and not covered by private insurers, Medicare, and Medicaid.

If USPFTF determines that something will not be paid for, God help you in getting it done. I first noticed this when I was at Dartmouth. It was found that many men with positive PSA tests, which suggested the presence of prostate cancer, did not die of prostate cancer, at least for many years. These tended to be older men and men with lower levels of PSA. The result was a drive to educate men to NOT have PSA tests. Too many men were having the test and undergoing radical prostatectomy.

I was in some sympathy with this view. I had seen examples of overtreatment. Still, it seemed more fair to allow the patient to choose. I see no similar movement to deny mammography to women although the recent dustup about youngest age at which Medicare will pay from mammography does seem similar

just yesterday, the New York Times published a “news analysis” which aggressively begins selling the public on that very notion – that medical screening tests are, by and large, a bad thing to do.

Even DrRich thought the Progressives would be somewhat circumspect about breaking such remarkable and counter-intuitive news to us in the great unwashed – especially considering that they have just spent the last three decades teaching us just the opposite. But then he recalled their smooth, unapologetic and entirely unremarked transition, around twenty years ago, from sounding the alarm about global cooling to catarwauling about global warming.

And he reminded himself that when you are a Progressive, history always began 10 minutes ago. And this turns out to be a great convenience.

In this case it is particularly convenient, when you consider the passionate declarations by Ms. Pelosi and others in 2009 that the watchword of Obamacare – indeed, the very key to the dramatically lower costs we would realize with this new legislation – would be “prevention, prevention, prevention.”

Expect to hear about this. Here’s another way of

The British medical journal Lancet reported last month that 32% of elderly American patients undergo surgery in the year before they die, a statistic culled from Medicare data. In an accompanying editorial, Dr. Amy Kelley of Mount Sinai School of Medicine labeled the 32% figure a “call to action”—to reduce costly surgeries, intensive-care stays and other high-intensity care for the elderly. Her call was parroted in hundreds of media outlets nationwide. But advocates for limiting health-care spending on the elderly are distorting science to make their argument.

Don’t be bamboozled: The Lancet investigators looked only at patients who died, making surgery appear unsuccessful. That’s like saying Babe Ruth struck out 1,333 times so he must have been a poor ball player—even though he had a .342 lifetime batting average and 714 home runs. Investigators should have considered how all surgery patients fared, including those who recovered, returned home from the hospital and resumed active lives.

The day is coming when divided loyalties will be the most serious problem in medicine. Who has YOUR best interest at heart ?