The people who gave us the Iraq WMD controversy have now weighed in on the Iran bomb program. The source of this document, being heralded by the usual suspects, is the old guard at the CIA that forced out Porter Goss. Timmerman’s book has them pegged as “Shadow Warriors,” determined to frustrate the Bush foreign policy at all costs. Stephen Kappes, the purported Iran expert, is no doubt behind this report. Kappes was appointed to the number two spot by Tenet as he was leaving the CIA, probably as a poison pill for the incoming Goss. Goss manged to edge him out but he quickly returned when Goss was forced out by the CIA bureaucracy. This NIE comes at a convenient time for the Democrats, the allies of Kappes and the other Shadow Warriors. What does it say ?
1. “We assess with high confidence that until fall 2003, Iranian military entities were
working under government direction to develop nuclear weapons.”
2. “We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons
program”
I wonder what could have happened in 2003 that might make the Iranians do a thing like that ? A visit from al Baradei ? I can’t think of anything else in 2003 that might have influenced their decisions.
3. “we also assess with moderate-to-high confidence that Tehran at a minimum is
keeping open the option to develop nuclear weapons.”
4. “We assess with moderate confidence Tehran had not restarted its nuclear weapons
program as of mid-2007, but we do not know whether it currently intends to develop
nuclear weapons.”
This is the outfit that thought Saddam was far from making a nuclear weapon in 1991, only to be proven wrong after the Gulf War I. It’s the same outfit that assured Bush it was a “slam dunk” that he had WMD before the invasion. Does anyone see a reason to doubt their “moderate confidence”?
5. “Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined
to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005.”
That must be why they have defied the world and threatened to obliterate Israel. This is all about politics and the Shadow Warriors war on Bush. I would no more trust them than I would have trusted the Conservatives continued renewal of the policy that Germany would not be capable of rearming for 10 years in the 1930s. That policy was not cancelled until 1938; very nearly too late. There are people in the US government who are determined that we adopt a passive foreign policy. They would have allowed Saddam Hussein to control the Midde East in 1991. They are willing to see Iran acquire a nuclear weapon with all the potential for world catastrophe that involves. They cannot be allowed to control the executive branch. Let’s hope the voters realize it.
The Iranians, however, prefer the Democrats and don’t mind saying so.
Joining the CIA must be like joining a cult: a paranoid, dysfunctional cult. Your fealty becomes not to the nation, or to truth, but to whatever institutional superstition is filling the pipes.
Any bureaucracy that deals with a whiff of contentiousness quickly develops an us-versus-them mentality, starts building little fortresses, and mixing various strains of kool-aid.
I like what the old hands used to say about the CIA. It stood for “Catholics, Irishmen, and Alcoholics.” It was a closed shop then, I guess.
But I don’t think it is working better now.