The Sunday political talk shows are all convinced that Obama will win the election. Who am I to argue with them ? Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that they are right. What will be the defining moment of the Obama presidency ?
The war ? The Iraq War is won. He might be able to sink the Iraqi government by withdrawing our troops precipitously, as the Democrats did in 1975 with South Vietnam, but Iraq is farther along than South Vietnam was.
The economy ? I think he will have a baneful effect on the economy as small business owners retrench in the face of sharply higher taxes and a hostile administration. However, the economy will already be in recession and that will be blamed on Bush. Hoover was still being blamed for the Depression in 1939 after years of misguided New Deal experiments.
I think the defining theme of the Obama presidency will be the energy crisis.
Coal provides nearly 50% of electrical generation. Obama plans to bankrupt the coal industry with carbon taxes. He will build no new nuclear power plants and his promise to “look at” offshore drilling will remain just that, a promise.
On nuclear power, Sen. Obama says he’s open to expanding nuclear energy, which now provides 20% of the nation’s electricity, as part of an effort to increase power sources that emit little or no carbon dioxide. But he also has said there is no future for expanded nuclear energy until the U.S. comes up with a safe, long-term solution for disposing of nuclear waste. He opposes the Bush administration’s plan for storing waste at Yucca Mountain in Nevada.
I predict that, by 2012, we will see nationwide rolling blackouts. A Third World level of energy production will be Obama’s legacy from his one term presidency.
Sen. Obama is also framing the climate-change debate in more explicit language than Sen. McCain. “We can’t drive our SUVs and eat as much as we want and keep our homes on, you know, 72 degrees [Fahrenheit] at all times and then just expect that every other country’s going to say OK. That’s not — that’s not leadership,” he told a crowd in Portland, Oregon, last month.
That is his energy policy. I am not the only one who thinks this.
Jeffersonian Says:
November 2nd, 2008 at 3:27 pm
I’ve long held that the success of the United States has been based largely on the fact that politicians have either lacked the hubris to attempt to micromanage things they do not comprehend or have just been plain unsuccessful at grasping the levers that would give them the power. This is the first time I’ve ever felt like we’re about to put into office a President who hasn’t successfully run anything but his own mouth, yet feels compelled to command everyone to act in a certain way based on some ill-conceived ideas of “social justice.”
We’re likely to be squatting in the dark a few years from now as a result.
Ralph Peters has a look-back at an Obama Presdency from 2012. Of course, that is only a prediction.
Keep in mind that in he, Barack Obama, will not suffer from any of those decisions. No matter how the man is described as “transformational” or “from humble beginnings,” he is a rich elitist.
So the Obama supporters who deride McCain for being well to do and out of touch with “regular” people are…well…not thinking rationally.
I may have to give some rational thought to living in Arizona during an era of rolling blackouts. That is the sort of thinking I suspect many people will be engaging in in months to come. France produces 85% of its electricity from nuclear. Something to think about.
At least you can afford some solar panels, Dr. K.
I think I’ll install a water wheel in the back yard and one of those tread wheels too. That way I can get my exercise while I’m supplying power.
I wouldn’t get too carried away just yet. Both of the candidates are appeasers of the squeaky wheel. When the energy problems start squeezing the squeakers, the resultant cacophony will somehow give rise to the New American Energy Plan. Which will look surprisingly inclusive of those hated coal and oil industries. The mantra will be ‘strategic use of existing resources that will get us through this rough patch’ while we pour some major printed up dollars into those nicer alternative products. Same old. Some of the new age corporate types might readily recognize the appeasement process as their own baby, the just-in-time-anything, but this time it’s constituent appeasement. For better or worse? I wouldn’t venture a guess. My crystal ball is being re-charged at the moment. Solar powered, just in case.
I do know that no one seems to paying much attention to the lag time between ordering a new fangled power plant and the actual delivery. So much for just-in-time.
allen I read at another blog that getting parts for nuclear is a very long process, and that we’d be way at the back of the line behind current European customers for cooling rods and whatever else is needed to build a nuke plant. Like, 10-20 years back.
Not that we shouldn’t try anyway.
Allan, I’m counting on Sarah to drag McCain into the 21st century on energy.
Well, the country that elected Obama will have the opportunity to see how their choice will work out. For me, I’m getting as liquid as I can. It will be a grim next two years. God help us all.
Lots of great products out there for your liquidity strategy. Today’s markets are so much better than the Carter era for flexibility and strategizing. You might take a gander at Prechtor’s book for some cogent thoughts on ‘safety’….Surviving the Crash. I’m too small to take advantage of many of his suggestions, but I imagine you have sufficient funds to consider a few of his recommendations. I’m fairly proficient at trading my way through the volatility, and there’s a plethora of opportunities looming ahead. Short and long. Yes, good luck to us all…
The game’s ‘afoot. It will be interesting to see how far left this untethered wagon lurches before responsibility sets in.
I think allan’s on to something. Moneymaking is the ticket, and this market is so volatile there are a lot of little peaks and valleys to play in.
I had fun going long on my phone/dsl carrier’s penny stock on the dip last week (when it had a P/E of 2) and sold it today before it started down again. Yay, I think I can do this!
If only I had 100x money to play with.
Leadership Conferences…
One of my favorite quotes on Leadership is by Peter Drucker: Management is doing things right; leadership is doing the right things….
Leadership Development…
An interesting quote by Ken Balnchard about the \’soft touch\’ of true leadership: The key to successful leadership today is influence, not authority….