I don’t think that a more important election has occurred in 75 years than the one later this year. I am not all that enthusiastic about any of the current candidate in the primary. Mitt Romney will probably win but he has been wounded seriously by attacks from other Republican candidates which alleged that his career as a venture capitalist and management consultant was an ethical issue. One expects this sort of thing from Democrats, about 53% of whom prefer Socialism.
53% of Democrats feel positively towards it.
Romney has defended himself with some vigor, which is a positive development. Others have defended him with a more effective argument.
We are now in an election campaign that may well be centered on our country’s economic system. Is capitalism (or free market economics as preferred by some) the best way for our economy to work? History has been written by people who are not positive about capitalism. Recently, revisionist history has appeared that tries to balance the story. Academic studies have been published that suggest that the Depression was a result of Roosevelt’s policies.
The writings of John Maynard Keynes have been quoted in support of leftist economic policies. The problem is that his policies have never been tried. He advocated countercyclical programs which ran deficits in times of economic slowdowns and recessions but surpluses in good economic time. The net result was zero deficits, a marked contrast with policies followed since 1960.
In fact, politicians of both parties have never been willing to run the surpluses that Keynes advocated. In good times, spending rose whether taxes were raised or not. Jimmy Carter said he would balance the budget with higher taxes. Instead, his compatriots (not allies) in Congress spent even more, leading to an inflation and stagnation crisis.
Ronald Reagan reinvigorated the economy with a large tax cut in 1980. The beneficial effect was delayed to 1982 when Bob Dole, the Senate Majority Leader, succeed in delaying the tax cut. The result was a predictable delay in economic activity as taxpayers waited for the lower rates, and the loss of the Senate majority in 1982.
Bill Clinton raised taxes in 1994 (His wife, Hillary, avoided the higher tax rates by taking her bonus prior to January 1, 1993, when the higher rates took effect. The result showed her prudence but also suggested hypocrisy in the Democrats’ enthusiasm for higher taxes.
George Bush I raised taxes in 1992 in spite of a promise not to do so. He lost the 1992 election, mainly because of Ross Perot’s candidacy splitting natural Republican voters. I was interested in Perot at the time but he started acting strangely before the election and I voted for Bush with reservations. Had he not raised taxes, I think he would have been re-elected. I have had some suspicion in spite of denials, ever since that the Democrats extracted a promise to raise taxes in return for voting for the first Gulf War. It is well known that All Gore required concessions in return for his vote for the war.
Tags: Bush, Congress, Democrats, economics, iraq, politics, taxes
All the candidates seem pretty liberal. Public service has become a liberal thing.
Surveys consistently show that 40% of the people identify as conservatives, 20% as liberal. I’ve been waiting for candidates and elections to start drifting conservative, but, alas…
Part of the problem is that people can’t kick the belief that more spending = more happiness. The emotional appeal to fix things is strong, and politicians come with the promise to fix things with more spending. I suppose we should also blame the public: I do a bit of lobbying at the state capital, and at one planning session someone noted that we “are up against people in wheelchairs”, noting that others vying for public funds are adept at bringing out sob stories that demand action and money no matter what. So we rocket into the future with ever more programs and attendant spending.
I spent years on the medical association’s commission on legislation which is basically the policy setting arm for lobbying. We had two major problems. One was internecine fights between specialties (plastic surgery vs ENT about face lifts), and with other practitioners (chiropractors, which was lost years ago and various “therapies” , which wanted to be able to treat without doctors being involved.). Almost all our work was defensive (just leave us alone) and we lost most battles because the other people had one issue and were willing to spend money on it.
We also had dogooders with smoking and ethical issues that were self-defeating mostly, Our success were incremental and often involved doing deals with would-be opponents on common interest issues.
It makes you pretty cynical about politicians.