Afghanistan and Pakistan

UPDATE #3: The new issue of Rolling Stone (Not out yet) has an article about General McChrystal and his aides who contemptuous of President Obama and his people such as Richard Holbroke and the Ambassador Eikenberry. All hell has broken loose in the White House and McChrystal has been called back to Washington to explain.

UPDATE #2: This may be old news being pushed by the administration in a bit of cheer leading. The original studies were published in 2007. This sort of thing may be the reason.

UPDATE: It now appears there are large deposits of minerals, especially Lithium, in Afghanistan. Given the neighbors of the country, I doubt this will be a benefit for a very long time, if ever.

A month or two ago I suggested it is time to get out of Afghanistan. There are serious problems with any effort to build a modern nation in Afghanistan. It has no assets in terms of natural resources or a history of a middle class. It is also a part of the sphere of influence of Pakistan which is frustrating our efforts by supporting the Taliban at the same time it is giving lip service to our war on the same entity. The fact is that the Taliban is a creature of Pakistan’s ISI, the intelligence service of the country which is more Islamist than the supposed democratic government.

India, which is our natural ally in the region, is reporting that the ISI is supporting them almost openly.

ISI provides funding, training and sanctuary to Taliban in Afghanistan on a scale much larger than previously thought, a report claims and suggests that the spy agency may be backing the insurgents to undermine Indian influence in the war-torn country. The report by the London School of Economics (LSE), based on interviews with nine Taliban commanders in Afghanistan between February and May this year, says the support for the Afghan Taliban was “official ISI policy”.

The IED explosives that resist detection by mine detectors are supplied to the Taliban by Pakistan. These IEDs are now the principle tactic of the Taliban.

“They have conducted less direct fire attacks from the winter into this spring, and they’re using more IEDs, suicide vests and potentially a car bomb,” he said.

As an example he cited last month’s suicide attack against the US-operated Bagram air base outside Kabul, and a suicide car bombing by the Taliban the previous day which killed at least 18 people, including six NATO troops – five U.S. and one Canadian.

The Bagram attack “was really not one that I think could have achieved success in terms of penetrating the base itself,” Scaparrotti said.

Yet it sparked hours of battles, left an American contractor and 10 militants dead, and highlighted the increasing sophistication and relentless pace of the conflict in which the Taliban are waging an insurgency to overthrow the U.S.-backed government of President Hamid Karzai.

It is now known that Pakistan, through the ISI, is now paying families of suicide bombers 200,000 Pakistani Rupees, about $1,000. This was a tactic of Saddam Hussein when he provided $25,000 stipends to the families of Palestinian suicide bombers. In a society where young men have few options for successful careers in real work, the sums are a real incentive.

“Although the Taliban has a strong endogenous impetus, according to Taliban commanders the ISI orchestrates, sustains and strongly influences the movement,” wrote author Matt Waldman, a fellow at Harvard University.
“They say it gives sanctuary to both Taliban and Haqqani groups, and provides huge support in terms of training, funding, munitions, and supplies. In their words, this is ‘as clear as the sun in the sky’.”
Waldman said the ISI appears to exert “significant influence” on strategic decision-making and field operations of the Taliban and controls the most violent insurgent units, some of which appear to be based in Pakistan.
Insurgent commanders claimed the ISI — an acronym for Inter-Services Intelligence directorate — was even officially represented, as participants or observers, on the Taliban supreme leadership council, he said.
The report alleges that Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari himself had assured captive senior Taliban leaders that they were “our people” and had his backing. He had apparently authorised some to be released from prison.
The study drew an angry reaction from the Pakistani military.
“It is a part of a malicious campaign against the Pakistan army and the ISI,” Pakistan army spokesman Major General Athar Abbas told AFP.

The enemy we are fighting in Afghanistan is actually Pakistan and our aid to Pakistan is being used to fund our enemy in the field. This is worse than Vietnam where the enemy had sanctuary in supposedly neutral territory. Here, the enemy has sanctuary in our putative ally. We need to recognize this and get out. The enemy is Pakistan and our ally is India.

The recent expulsion of Michael Yon from Afghanistan is part of the delusion we are under in what is happening.

The intention was to write a detailed dispatch on the 3-17th Field Artillerly. Unfortunately, General Stanley McChrystals’ crew broke an agreement I had with the Army to stay until 5/2 Stryker Brigade Combat Team leaves Afghanistan, and so the research on this dispatch was not completed. However, there are some nice nighttime photos and so this dispatch is more about Canons than cannons.

He has incurred the displeasure of General McChrystal. The battle for Kandahar has been delayed and will probably not be successful. The expulsion of the best battlefield reporter we have is suspicious and suggests an effort to conceal the truth.

This is a political war on nearly every level. Though this will almost certainly be our most deadly year so far, violence is often a minor aspect of the struggle, while in some places combat is—by far—the most prevalent feature. Insofar as combat, our plans do not include serious fighting within Kandahar City, though soon after publication of this dispatch fighting will erupt in nearby areas. BfK is more of a process for both sides than a set battle. The Taliban are succeeding in their process to take Kandahar, and we wish to reverse that process.

The war is going to bring heavy casualties and I do not see the value of the struggle as we have committed to leaving next year, which makes the effort even less worth the cost.

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