UPDATE #4: What is the world record for breaking campaign promises ? Answer: one hour.
Amazing. Next year should be interesting in NY 23. Of course the district is destined to be broken up after the next census so that makes it OK to play the voters for rubes.
UPDATE #3: Newt, give it up.
UPDATE #2: It now seems that Newt Gingrich, who has opposed Hoffman has been passing along misinformation and may have been lied to.
UPDATE: More from NRO on the debate within the party.
I’ve been interested in the tea party movement since last March. We had a tea party demonstration in Mission Viejo on April 15 and I posted about it. My impression all along has been that this is a libertarian movement and the social conservatives who attend are mostly there about taxes and deficits.
I have also been very interested in Sarah Palin, although I was disappointed by her weaknesses in interviews last year. Some of that was poor preparation and some was the suddenness of her ascent to the national stage. I have read a good deal about Margaret Thatcher and learned that, once she became part of Ted Heath’s government, she embarked on a crash course of coaching on issues. She was not the Iron Lady immediately. I’ve also been interested in some tendencies on the part of Sarah Palin toward libertarian positions on issues. She was demonized by the media last year as a fundamentalist but some of her actions as governor were misrepresented.
Now, we have a stark challenge to the Republican establishment. The old guard party moguls chose a candidate in the New York 23rd Congressional district who embodies most of the concerns we have had about the deterioration of the Republican Party. Michelle Malkin can certainly be over the top but the issues she raises are real.
Scozzafava is an abortion rights advocate who favors gay marriage.
These are not the hot button issues for me that they are for Michelle. Still, most Republicans are on the other side.
It would be one thing if Scozzafava balanced that social liberalism with fiscal conservatism. But as a state assemblywoman, she voted for massive tax increases, Democratic budgets and a $180 million state bank bailout. She also supported the trillion-dollar federal stimulus package — which every House Republican voted against.
This is more serious. The House Republicans were unanimous. Would she have been the symbolic yes vote for Obama ?
More troubling, Scozzafava in past elections has embraced the ballot line of the Working Families Party — a socialist outfit whose political DNA is intertwined with scandal-ridden ACORN. ACORN and the WFP have shared office space in New York City, Arkansas and Illinois.
ACORN head Bertha Lewis, a close Scozzafava friend and political supporter, wears a second hat as vice chairman of the WFP. The WFP has been listed in ACORN documents dating back to 2000 as an “affiliate.”
This is a lot more serious. ACORN and WFP are socialist organizations riddled with fraud and foot soldiers of the Democratic party. Others have pointed out that the NY Republican Party is different, as in far to the left of the national party. Still, why should we have Republicans like this to confuse the message to the voters?
Scozzafava isn’t even a very good candidate.
Scozzafava’s problems as a candidate aren’t limited to ideology. She simply rubs people the wrong way. The Siena poll reported that–by a 16-point margin–voters who had seen her commercials found that the ads made “them less likely to support her.” “Let me tell you something,” Scozzafava says at the conclusion of her seven-minute speech at the Elks Lodge. “The best revenge in all of this–because it’s been ugly and nasty, my family has been personally attacked, I’ve been attacked, there’s been lies–that the best revenge in the end is to win.”
I experienced firsthand Scozza-fava’s politics of personal revenge at the Elks Lodge event. After I persisted in asking her questions about card-check, taxpayer-funding of abortion, and whether her pledge not to raise taxes meant she’d vote against any health care bill that raised taxes, her husband–a local union boss–called the police.
Then something startling happened. A guy named Doug Hoffman appeared and got the nomination of the NY Conservative Party. The Conservative Party has been the statewide reaction to the left of center GOP in New York for years. They even elected a Senator, James Buckley, brother of William F. Hoffman began to attract support. I sent an e-mail to Instapundit suggesting this was not a bad thing. He posted it. What I said was:
Glenn, the Republicans are upset at the tea partiers in NY 23 for backing Hoffman but that will be a nice test. The election is only for one year so little is lost if the Democrat wins a split race. But, if Hoffman wins, they will have to start to take the movement seriously instead of trying to co-opt them. First, I think the tea parties are libertarian, not “right wing.” That’s what I’ve seen in Mission Viejo, where we have turned out 500+ on each occasion.
This will be a very important race, more so than Virginia or New Jersey which are old line pols running on both sides.
I do wish Hoffman’s donation software was better. I tried to give him money and couldn’t.
I was able to donate later on a second try. Now, what is happening ?
Uh oh.
Minnesota governor and potential GOP presidential candidate Pawlenty seems to be dithering. That won’t help.
He says he will “probably” endorse Hoffman. Governor, we don’t need more presidential dithering. Personally, I think Hoffman will win. What does that mean ?
I think it means that the tea party movement is not a Republican phenomenon. Republicans can join but they have to adopt some principles, a rare event in the past decade. We probably don’t have a worse political class now than in past eras. The difference is that Congress has far more power over our economy than ever before, with the exception of war time.
When asked about this confrontation with the GOP, Dana remarked that Tea Partiers were not going to be co-opt by the Republican Party, but were rather in the process of taking it over. Bill Hennessy praised Ed Martin (R), who is running to unseat Russ Carnahan (D-MO) in MO-03, for taking a stand in support of Doug Hoffman. Bill called on other Missouri Republicans to do the same. Paul Curtman, who is running for state rep in Missouri’s 105th, was there to support conservatism and Doug Hoffman.
Which is the tail and which is the dog? I am convinced the tea party movement is a resurgence of the Perot phenomenon of 1992. I’m not the only one.
In 1992, the incumbent president, George H.W. Bush, was a disappointment to his party’s base and a pariah to the Democrats. Government seemed to have lost its grip. The deficit became a massive issue, a symbol of out-of-control government. The hangover of Cold War sacrifices, the S&L bailout, runaway crime, huge trade deficits, the long-term trend of manufacturing decline and, of course, the recession contributed to the sense that America desperately needed to get its house in order.
Ross Perot, a quirky Texas billionaire, tapped into that anxiety perfectly. Western, pro-business, no-nonsense, pro-choice and pro-gun, culturally conservative but with little interest in culture-war issues, he managed to thread the needle between both parties. He also benefited enormously from the fact that his independent bid for the presidency was seen by the press as an indictment of both the incumbent Republican and the “Reagan deficits” that Democrats and the media had been denouncing for years. At one point, Perot led in the polls, and if he hadn’t dropped out and then rejoined, he might have done even better than his historic 19 percent of the popular vote.
I was ready to vote for Perot until he imploded in a series of weird complaints about threats to his family.
The tea-party protesters are in large part the heirs of Perotism, and they are being subjected to the same insults. Liberal commentators are deaf to the tea partyers’ disdain for both political parties, preferring to cast the protesters as a deranged band of birthers and racists or hired guns of a Republican “AstroTurf” campaign.
Meanwhile, as National Review’s Ramesh Ponnuru has argued, the Democrats have convinced themselves that the moral of Clinton’s failed health care push is not that he was wrong to try, but that he was wrong not to cram it through against popular opposition.
President Obama promised a “new era of fiscal responsibility,” but he’s governing as if exploding the size of government is what Americans want, polls be damned. The Democrats’ budget games and giveaways amount to poking the angry Perotista beast with a stick.
If the GOP can convincingly align with and exploit the growing Perotista discontent, it very well might ride to victory on a tsunami the Democrats can’t even see.
Yes, but can the party that nominated Dede Scozzafava figure that out ? Minnesota seemed to figure it out with Michelle Bachman.
Tags: economy, politics, taxes, tea parties
I’m on the ground in the GOP here in Montana, and I can attest to much of this. The Tea Partiers organized their Apr 15 event here largely without GOP support. But I eagerly attended, as did other central committee members. The chairman came just to observe and was impressed but didn’t try to glom on to the movement in any way. It was a great day.
Among the crowd there were Constitution Party members and also just people who had picked up on the event from local media. Since I don’t have cable anymore I don’t honestly know how much of this was ginned up by Fox.
Some of the Tea Partiers here were Perot supporters back in the 90s, even left the party and later came back. Some of our more outspoken conservatives have drifted to join a separate conservative group here inspired by the Tea Party. In more conservative (non-university) counties they indeed have taken over the party itself, at least for now.
The thing is, they do need the organization that the GOP already has or they will wither on the vine the way the Reform Party did. You need officers, treasurers to file regular reports, esp with the new campaign finance laws.
I think they can get the financial & boots on the ground they need but they do have to get along and not automatically assume that ALL of us are RINO’s by virtue of being party members. Some of us wormed our way in back when for the same purpose, but have trouble working with the insurgents because they come off so stupid and inarticulate in meetings. They can’t seem to say what they want exactly, but maybe if we found some good candidates we’d figure it out together.
I think candidates next year are crucial. I just hope the central committees are smarter than the New York group. I’ve never been part of the local party organization in Orange County. It is dominated by rich businessmen who are pretty moderate but the elections are pretty much routine. Once in a while they screw up and I helped elect a Democrat in 1978 to the local state Senate seat. The party had nominated a rich idiot and froze out the best candidate. She ran as an independent and, because I was mostly concerned with medical association issues in those days, I helped the Democrat. He only served one term but it got some people’s attention. the GOP has been very poor on medical issues for decades. In California, we always preferred to work with Democrats. Jerry Brown got us the malpractice reform that has stood up for 34 years.
The Tea Bag movement and their influence depends on one thing. Can they get along with others including themselves
I interacted with you post here because my thoughts were too big I guess for a comment box
http://opinionatedcatholic.blogspot.com/2009/10/factions-of-tea-party-movement-can-they.html
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I read your post and my response is that a lot of people, including me, are tired of big spending Republicans. I had some reservations about Reagan because he didn’t try hard enough to cut spending. However, Reagan had a Democratic House his whole presidency. He could have tried harder to elect more Republicans in 1984 and that was a huge mistake but Bush had both houses controlled by his party and he allowed them to run riot with spending. I have read that Hastert convinced him to sign those bills, and Cheney’s book may help with that story, but Bush let spending get out of control and that, plus immigration, lost him his base. The issue of immigration does affect some Tea Party folks but is not as big an issue as the deficit. That trumps all issues as far as I can see.
In NVA,
Around here it was conservative. We have had many people from the Northeast move in. MAny with democrat-socialist ideas. Also, since DC is basically liberal, sice MD is completely liberal with high taxs, we get a lot of liberals living here who support the DC liberal establishment.
There’s been a sea-change with the Tea party movement.
It’s more elites vs. the non-elites. It’s definitely small government. It’s also not just take back the Republican Party – that’s step 1. It’s take the Repubs first, congress 2nd, some dems 3rd, the presidency and senate 4th, teh dems 5th, and finally the courts.
In the background the old liberal media will wither and die off by lack of use, and the universities will likewise die off when they cannot use the government as a feeding trough. Maybe the use of RICO statutes against university tenure practices and the unions would clean those cess pools up.
Make no mistake – this movement is not just bigger than the Republicans. It’s bigger than the entire elite political class. I also think the movement has transcended mere ‘anger’ and will evicerate anything that attempts to steal our liberty further.
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“but Bush had both houses controlled by his party and he allowed them to run riot with spending”
Yet the Senate was abrely under control and he also had to deal with a lot of moderates in the Seante with the GOP
Further being at war in two theatres he has to spend a enormous amoutn to polticial capitial
I watched the whole Social Security deabte where Bush was screaming to do something. From the conservative side they never got into it. Just a big yawn. Guess not sexy enough. They could not moblize their base to so something about it
That was a moment when the “conservative base ” failed big time. SO easy to blame Bush
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I don;’t recall the conservative base laying down on the SS debate. This will be another example of the recriminations we saw in the housing bubble. I saw lots of warnings about the Fannie/Freddie problems. The WSJ had lots of editorials warning about the Fannie Mae problems.
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Mike,
See… this is why I always like Palin (while recognizing her weaknesses) while viewing Pawlenty with distrust and suspicion – much the way I viewed Romney back in ’07/’08.
What scares me is… at this point I don’t even trust Newt Gingrich all that much.
Trust really is the key.
The People lost trust in the Republicans during the RINO era.
The People are losing trust in Obama and the Democrats – thought the cover they get via the MSM cushions their missteps.
Hey… I’m certainly rooting for Hoffman and if I lived in the 23rd district I’d be working for him as a volunteer… but as you and others point out, the establishment GOP – the GOP elected officials themselves – are by and large a sad bunch who simply can’t be trusted. In other words, in large part the “opposition” to the Democratic Party is still the “Democratic Lite” Party – i.e. the RINO Party.
When Sanford blew himself up that was a HUGE blow to the grass roots of the GOP and those who lean GOP within our two Party system.
Who is the potential savior? Palin? It would take a lot of work to undo the damage McCain and the MSM did to her. Rick Perry…??? He’s said many of the right things, but… (*SIGH*) (Plus – I don’t see the American People electing another Texan so soon after Dubya.)
Forbes? DePont? Hey… I like ’em both, but they’re perennial losers.
Tom Coburn? I don’t see him throwing his hat in the right.
A military hero – say “Storm’n Norman” or General Patraus? (Possibly… but I know nothing about either man’s social/economic/political views.)
Sorry to be a bummer drag… but it *is* a depressing situation.
BILL
For the life of me, I cannot see how anyone with an IQ greater the 72 finds Palin interesting in any way at all. The idea that the MSM or McCain destroyed her is ludicrous. Every time I saw her in an unstructured situation my toes curled in embarrassment. She is the albatross around the neck of the Republican party – forcing it into a position where it views intellect with suspicion. You cannot win political control in this country by appealing to stupidity. There just aren’t that many dumbbells who vote.
And comparing her to Thatcher, who had a masters in chemistry from Oxford, is… well… Words fail.
Chris
Yes, I expect that words fail you frequently. I also can understand how you cannot understand some things, especially if they violate left wing shibboleths. I do wonder what you are a professor of. Sociology ?
Thanks, Mike! No – not sociology. Legal history, in fact, with some religious history thrown in. Not that I have to defend my politics to you or anyone else, do you really believe that I’m some lefty who’s jumped in here to this blog (which I frequent and enjoy) just to clandestinely sow discord among the evil conservatives? That I’d make that much difference? Are you really that paranoid and loony? Maybe I’m just a republican who wishes he could still vote for Reagan, who reveres the memory of Buckley, who remembers when most smart folks voted republican, and who worries that the party is being wrecked by a cabal of bumpkins.
Chris
Professor Chill, not to be rude but to put it simply, the masses like Palin because she isn’t like you.
She doesn’t exclude bumpkins and she doesn’t attempt to convince others that she is anything but what she is: ordinary. And the ordinary can be extraordinarily refreshing. I think it rather amuses her to see people like you get in a twist over her ordinariness.
And please, it isn’t Palin who is the albatross around the neck of the Republican party –”forcing it into a position where it views intellect with suspicion” (that’s funny). It’s the party itself that has imploded and lost it’s own identity because it has consistently strayed from Conservatism until it no long resembles anything familiar. But it’s rather interesting that you assign Palin so much power that she can force the party into any position whatsoever. What a woman.
Maybe I’m just a republican
I somehow doubt it. Actually, I am a fan of Ford who was vetoing spending bills at a great clip and, with Simon as his Sec Treas, might have stopped the Carter inflation before it began.
The reason I like Palin is because I think she is a libertarian and not a “social conservative” as she has been slammed. Your “IQ above 72” remark was just the sort of left wing reflex comment that marks you as a member of the academic left. A standard tactic of commenters, as you should know, is to pretend a former Republican affiliation that has “regrettably” faded with the appearance of the right wing nuthouse.
If you know any history, and you claim to, you know that Reagan was attacked in very similar terms to those used against Palin. I’m not saying she is Reagan who had a lot more experience, but she could be Reagan at her age.
Dana – not to be rude back at you, but the masses don’t like Palin. They didn’t vote for her. They voted for Obama. Palin appeals to a comparatively thin slice of the electorate.
And it’s not that I have anything against bumpkins. I was a carpenter before I went back to grad school. I just don’t want bumpkins running the party, because they just can’t get elected. It’s not her ordinariness that bothers me – it’s the fact that she can’t seem to string sentences together in any sort of coherent fashion. Believe me, I was interested the night they rolled her out at the convention. I thought – Christ, she’s a hottie and a conservative. Just what McCain needs. He might actually be able to pull it off. And then I listened to her talk in interviews during the following weeks. She just doesn’t seem to have that much on the ball. I’ve never heard her say anything substantive about finance or foreign policy that gave me the impression that there was anything there. She became a joke. Not because other people damaged her, but because she damaged herself.
And Michael, again – I really am a republican. Libertarian domestically, financially terrified over the looming debt, and interested in blowing to Mars anyone who looks crosswise at our people. I do remember the crap they laid on Reagan. I know what you mean. But Reagan ran California and the SAG and was a force in American politics for decades before his presidential run. He had a brain that people belittled because of his age and because the lefties hated his guts. I’m not a lefty. I don’t hate Sarah Palin. I just don’t think she’s got any brains. If you can point me to a place, *any* place, where she was speaking unscripted and said something intelligent, I’ll be glad to rethink my stance toward her capabilities.
And my concern over people’s intellect should not mark me automatically as a member of the academic left. If it does, then maybe you’re exactly the problem I see in the party, and my concern over republicans’ growing suspicion of intellectuals is better founded than Dana seems to think it is.
Chris
I’m afraid intellectuals have given little cause to defer to them. Global warming is an excellent example. Sarah Palin needs a crash course on issues but people like Kerry are considered heavyweights with no reason I can see except a Yale degree that is increasingly shown to be a poor indicator. You should, if you are capable of any self criticism, see how your IQ comment made you automatically part of the DailyKos crowd who think that a degree in social studies make them an intellectual. I have a daughter in college now and it is deeply depressing to see what passes for education at the university level these days.
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