Archive for August, 2009

A dose of cold water

Friday, August 14th, 2009

Charles Krauthammer today delivers a useful dose of cold water on the fantasy that preventive care saves money. There are a few measures that probably do save money; mammography is one. Mammography does not, obviously, prevent breast cancer but it does detect the disease at an early stage and probably saves money by avoiding the treatment of late incurable breast cancer in more women. Kaiser, an HMO with a loyal membership, was a pioneer in routine mammography and this is the most likely incentive. More on the issue of preventive care and cost here.

This brings up the difference between prevention and screening for early diagnosis. It also raises the issue of cost-benefit analysis in medicine. I have spent some time studying this subject. The analysis of such issues is called decision theory. It is very commonly used in business to decide on which investments are more likely to make money. The decision tree typically uses software that calculates the costs associated with all possible decisions that could be made. An example is here. The decision tree begins with an initial set of facts, the simpler the better. In medicine, it might be a symptom like rectal bleeding.

A patient comes in with rectal bleeding. How do we proceed ? I used to teach this sort of thing to medical students. Cost-benefit analysis can be part of this process. For example, it sometimes seems to me that junior doctors choose a spiral CT scan as the initial diagnostic event far too often. I know that one third or more of cardiology fellows, graduate physicians in training, cannot hear a systolic heart murmur. This is the most basic examination in cardiology. The stethoscope was the first instrument that allowed doctors to examine the interior of the body. Yet one-third of budding cardiology specialist are incompetent with it. Why ? They have spent years ordering echocardiograms on every patient with the least suspicion of heart disease. Here is a useful role for cost-benefit analysis.

I don’t want to conduct a seminar on this subject. If you want one, there are journal articles going back 30 years on the topic. This is where we get into Bayesian Algebra. Anyone who gets into this subject must understand the basic principles of diagnostic tests, true positive, false positive, true negative and false negative. A true positive test is positive in a patient who has the disease. False positive is, of course, positive in a patient who does not have the disease. Two groups of patients have the disease, true positives and false negatives. From this sort of thing, one calculates the sensitivity and specificity of tests. A test is the most sensitive that has the most true positives. A test that is the most specific, has the most true negatives.

That, of course, has nothing to do with prevention but prevention, aside from immunization, is not medicine anyway. It is public health plus cultural norms. A century after Columbus’ first voyage brought syphilis back to Europe, one third of the residents of Paris had the disease. The importance of virginity in a bride may have arisen from such data.

I have serious doubts that 98% of the advocates of health reform would have any idea what I’m talking about here.

Health insurance and health reform

Wednesday, August 12th, 2009

UPDATE: The eight questions I addressed below were obviously from John Mackey’s op-ed in the WSJ. Now his leftist customers at Whole Foods Markets are going nuts and threatening to boycott the store. OK by me. I thought the criticism was rather mild and I don’t shop there anyway. It does show the madness of these groups, though.

The Obama campaign seems to be morphing into “insurance reform.” There are lots of mis-statements about insurance out there so I thought I would consider some. One, of course, is the gigantic profits of the insurance companies. First of all, almost all employer based health plans are NOT insurance but are prepaid care managed by an ASO (Administrative Service Organization), almost always an insurance company. Why ? because they have the skills to do this sort of thing. There are two ways that these companies make money. One is to invest premiums and pay benefits out of investment income. That is how life insurance and fire insurance works. Long ago, that sort of thing came to an end with health insurance. Why ? Because health insurance stopped being insurance.

How does a conventional insurance company make money ? Let’s take fire insurance which was founded in this country by Benjamin Franklin. The concept was a mutual company. A group of homeowners paid into a fund that was to be used to pay for fire damage. It also paid for the fire fighters and their equipment.

The first policies had a term of seven years. After the policies expired, the premium money was returned to the policyholders. In the first year of operation, 143 policies were written. Ironically, there wasn’t a single insured property that caught fire in the Philadelphia Contributionship’s first year of operation.

What did they do with the money ? Well, if I know Franklin, the money was invested in the colony and the income from the investments was added to the fund, also called “the corpus.” Since they had no fire, the money was all returned to the investors with interest. This is how mutual insurance works. Blue Cross and Blue Shield are non-profits that were founded by the hospitals and the medical associations to pay medical claims. Mutual companies like this have no profits to distribute as they are owned by the policy holders.

What about Aetna and the other for-profit insurance companies ? Many large assets in the country are owned by these companies as they have, in the case of life insurance especially, a long period in which to earn the money to pay claims. Actuaries are economists who estimate the probability of loss for a particular insured. If I am a 40 year old male who doesn’t smoke, they can estimate my annual risk of death with considerable precision. They set the annual premium and the benefit paid can be even more than it would be if I saved the premium for 20 years. That is because of the investment income.

They can also estimate, with considerable precision, my risk of a heart attack or a stroke or even cancer. In the days before 1970, when insurance only covered events like heart attacks and strokes, it was possible to estimate these risks and to set up a table of premiums that were predictable. Even if medical prices rose, there was a way to deal with that. In 1970, many health policies were of the indemnity type. That means they paid a fixed dollar amount for a medical event, such as an operation or a hospital stay. In those days, hospitals usually billed by the day rather than the enormous, and unintelligible, itemized bills we see today.

Furthermore, for the past 25 years, those bills have meant almost nothing. The insurance companies, and after DRGs came in, Medicare, pay a fixed amount per hospital stay based on the discharge diagnosis. Outpatient surgery has become popular as a way to avoid those limits and the inefficiencies of hospitals, but that also involves contracts that include huge discounts on the “retail” price seen on the bill.

Soon, the indemnity insurance policy went into decline because they often did not keep up with doctor’s rising fees. This was a serious mistake on the part of doctors as they were agents of their own (or at least their successors’) destruction. Had the insurance companies held the line, the doctors would have had to negotiate with patients for the balance over what the policy paid. That might have required explaining why the operation was worth so much. It would be uncomfortable and it was much easier to get them to pay “UCR” rates. That stands for “Usual, Customary and Reasonable.” It’s amazing how fast “customary” can increase once the limits are off.

The insurance companies foolishly insisted on itemized bills from the hospitals and the explosion of health care inflation took off. Medicare paid the going rates for a while. I began practice in 1972 and my partner and I set our fees according to the book of rates called the Relative Value Scale established by the California Medical Association, and called “RVS.” It was begun in 1952 by a group that wanted to set up a fee schedule that could be used by any doctor in any community. The schedule simply ranked items relative to each other. It began with a “hernia unit,” the value of a hernia repair compared to other services like office visits or open heart surgery. Maybe a hernia repair is worth one tenth of a heart surgery. The young physician then took into account the cost of practice, rent and so forth, and decided on a “conversion factor.” The conversion factor for us was $100. If the RVS book said a hernia repair was 4.5 RVS units, our fee was $450. We were on the low end of the scale but did well because we were busy.

Anyway, that system worked pretty well and even Medicare adopted it in spite of the fact that the FTC sued the CMA and forced them to stop printing the RVS Schedule and then even required that they recall all the copies in existence. If you would like to consider how illogical government can get, think about doctors using Xeroxed copies of the illegal RVS schedule to submit bills to Medicare, which required the correct numbers to pay the bills.

Anyway, the real problems began in the 70s when the Nixon administration decided that the way to control costs was the HMO. Paul Ellwood provided the theoretical foundation for the concept. He based his concept on the Kaiser Foundation and the original program devised by surgeon Sidney Garfield for the California Aqueduct and the Grand Coulee Dam, the latter built by Henry J Kaiser. The HMO provided prepaid care for a monthly fee and the doctors were on salary.

Private practice pediatricians and obstetricians were worried because health insurance did not pay for their services. After all, these were not insurable events but routine care. Here, the fatal decision was made and I remember debates in the House of Delegates of the CMA. The CMA must act to protect its members and demand that insurance cover well baby care and routine delivery. I objected but, of course, I was a surgeon and we lost the debate. This was the beginning of the end because, once prepaid care was substituted for insurance, there was no way to stop the inflation. My younger son was born at Huntington Memorial Hospital in Pasadena in April 1969. This was the nicest hospital in the area and the maternity ward was new and beautiful. The hospital bill for mother and child was $375. Five years later, with insurance coverage now universal, that bill would be ten times as much.

I’m sure those who are still reading this are tired of the history so I will consider one proposal being discussed as an alternative to the Obama program.

Here are eight reforms that would greatly lower the cost of health care for everyone:

•Remove the legal obstacles that slow the creation of high-deductible health insurance plans and health savings accounts (HSAs).

This would be helpful but far less important unless we get rid of the false “retail prices” that everyone sees on their doctor and hospital bill. To give one small example: I am a Medicare beneficiary now. I also have chronic pain as a result of a back injury and an extensive surgery in 1993. I go to a pain specialist. At hand, I have a May 25, 2009 EOB (Explanation of Benefits) from Medicare. He billed $140 for an office visit. The Medicare payment was $13.90; less than 10% of billed charges. They proudly list the amount I am NOT required to pay him as $126.10. He cannot bill me for the balance. Why not ? It’s illegal.

Let’s say that my pain doctor drops out of Medicare and goes to a cash practice as many internists are now doing. He could set a fee somewhere between what Medicare won’t pay him and what they do pay him, and then I could pay that amount myself and forget Medicare. Soon, that may be the only option as more and more doctors drop out of Medicare. Soem primary care internists are setting up “retainer practices.” Of course, some object to this as elitist.

UPDATE: President Obama has twice made inflammatory and ignorant comments about surgeons the past several weeks. Today the American College of Surgeons, which has been supporting his agenda, finally lashed back at him. It’s about bloody time. First, surgeons do not get the hospital bill as payment. Second, surgical fees and hospital bills have little to do with the “retail” prices that are printed in so many commentaries by non-medical people.

•Equalize the tax laws so that employer-provided health insurance and individually owned health insurance have the same tax benefits.

That may help although one reason why employer plans get better rates is the fact that a fully employed population is a better collective health risk than individuals who may be of varying states of health. I do agree that health care expenses should be tax deductible.

•Repeal all state laws which prevent insurance companies from competing across state lines.

This would make a huge difference but only a revolution could bring this to pass. Politicians serve no purpose in life except to do favors for contributers.

•Repeal government mandates regarding what insurance companies must cover.

This would accomplish even more for costs but it would be even more difficult to enact. I spent eight years on the CMAs commission on legislation. I saw how sausage is made.

•Enact tort reform to end the ruinous lawsuits that force doctors to pay insurance costs of hundreds of thousands of dollars per year.

I tend to think this is less important but that may be because I live in California which did a major tort reform in 1975 and has held the line well on malpractice rates. I have some other ideas on this but this post is already too long.

•Make costs transparent so that consumers understand what health-care treatments cost.

I think this is key and the reason for the lengthy post above.

•Enact Medicare reform. We need to face up to the actuarial fact that Medicare is heading towards bankruptcy and enact reforms that create greater patient empowerment, choice and responsibility.

Yes but this has to come from the same reforms we enact for the whole system.

•Finally, revise tax forms to make it easier for individuals to make a voluntary, tax-deductible donation to help the millions of people who have no insurance and aren’t covered by Medicare, Medicaid or the State Children’s Health Insurance Program.

Nice but fluff.

I think we are headed to a market-based health care system whether or not Obama gets his bill passed. In Canada, it is happening even though it is technically illegal.

UPDATE: This is an interesting analysis of the proposed reform program. The premise is that what is going to happen, if it passes, is a commingling of all the different health care accounts, Medicare, Medicaid and middle class, pitting the classes against each other. I think it shows considerable insight.

Democracy in action

Monday, August 10th, 2009

This piece from the Washington Post illustrates the situation in the healthcare debate right now. I have never seen anything like it. I attended a “tea party” rally in Mission Viejo last April and there were 500 people, mostly middle aged, demonstrating for hours. The political left tried to belittle this activity using a gay obscenity term, “tea baggers,” but the rallies continue. They seem to have unnerved many Democrats. In April they were about taxes and deficits. Now they are about healthcare. They are also getting larger. Maybe there is a message to be read here.

“What I don’t want to do is create an opportunity for the people who are political terrorists to blow up the meeting and not try to answer thoughtful questions.”

That decision irritates some of Hill’s constituents, who have been calling his office to demand time. They are furious that he voted July 31 in the House Energy and Commerce Committee for a hefty bill that would include a government-run insurance option.

“He needs to answer the people. He voted yes. Why? Tell us why, Baron. I’m not going to hang you in effigy,” said Salem pediatrician Christy Lane. She failed several times to reach Hill’s Washington staff, so she instead called the nearby Jeffersonville office.

He certainly wouldn’t want to talk to one of his constituents who is a physician about healthcare reform. Maybe she is a political terrorist.

This situation is unique in my experience. The Viet Nam demonstrators were kids, many of them trying to avoid the draft. The labor union members who populate many left wing demonstrations are used to turning out for picket lines and are often paid. I can’t recall seeing tthe sort of turnout by middle class, middle aged people we have seen the past four months. If I were Pelosi, I would be concerned.

What the rallies are about

Sunday, August 9th, 2009

This is a pretty good video of an articulate woman telling the CSPAN folks what the rallies are all about.

Sounds right to me

“End of life” and euthanasia

Sunday, August 9th, 2009

The question of incentives in the House “health reform” bill to pressure the elderly to sign “end of life” agreements has become a lightning rod in the debate. Sarah Palin, mother of a child with Down’s Syndrome, has accused the Obama reform movement of fostering euthanasia.

The America I know and love is not one in which my parents or my baby with Down Syndrome will have to stand in front of Obama’s ‘death panel’ so his bureaucrats can decide, based on a subjective judgment of their ‘level of productivity in society’ whether they are worthy of health care,” Palin says. “Such a system is downright evil.”

While a bit over the top, there are legitimate reasons for concern. David Brooks on Meet the Press today, called Palin’s statement “crazy.” No, it wasn’t crazy and his reaction shows he still does not have the ear to hear what the public is worried about.

I was not reassured to read in an Aug. 1 Post article that “Democratic strategists” are “hesitant to give extra attention to the issue by refuting the inaccuracies, but they worry that it will further agitate already-skeptical seniors.”

If Section 1233 is innocuous, why would “strategists” want to tip-toe around the subject?

Perhaps because, at least as I read it, Section 1233 is not totally innocuous.

Until now, federal law has encouraged end-of-life planning — gently. In 1990, Congress required health-care institutions (not individual doctors) to give new patients written notice of their rights to make living wills, advance directives and the like — but also required them to treat patients regardless of whether they have such documents.

The 1997 ban on assisted-suicide support specifically allowed doctors to honor advance directives. And last year, Congress told doctors to offer a brief chat on end-of-life documents to consenting patients during their initial “Welcome to Medicare” physical exam. That mandate took effect this year.

The “living will” initiative was in hospitals and now we have financial incentives for doctors to “discuss” such topics with elderly or handicapped patents.

Section 1233, however, addresses compassionate goals in disconcerting proximity to fiscal ones. Supporters protest that they’re just trying to facilitate choice — even if patients opt for expensive life-prolonging care. I think they protest too much: If it’s all about obviating suffering, emotional or physical, what’s it doing in a measure to “bend the curve” on health-care costs?

Though not mandatory, as some on the right have claimed, the consultations envisioned in Section 1233 aren’t quite “purely voluntary,” as Rep. Sander M. Levin (D-Mich.) asserts. To me, “purely voluntary” means “not unless the patient requests one.” Section 1233, however, lets doctors initiate the chat and gives them an incentive — money — to do so. Indeed, that’s an incentive to insist.

Patients may refuse without penalty, but many will bow to white-coated authority. Once they’re in the meeting, the bill does permit “formulation” of a plug-pulling order right then and there. So when Rep. Earl Blumenauer (D-Ore.) denies that Section 1233 would “place senior citizens in situations where they feel pressured to sign end-of-life directives that they would not otherwise sign,” I don’t think he’s being realistic.

I remember 1978 when the first attempt at cost control came down from the federal government (Jimmy Carter was president). It was called “PSRO” or “Professional Standards Review Organizations.” We were told it was all about quality but the only measurements anyone was interested in were fiscal, like length of stay.

The enemy of compassionate decision making in these matters is government and legal scrutiny. I have assisted patients with their death. I remember very well one woman who had had a terrible battle with cancer of the anus, the same disease that recently took the life of Farah Fawcett. I had made the diagnosis as stroke of luck. She complained of an anal fissure. At surgery, the treatment at the time was what was called “lateral sphincterotomy.” This meant cutting part-way through the external sphincter, as these patients have a lot of sphincter spasm. The fissure is usually in the midline, anterior as it was in this patient, or posterior. The incision in the sphincter is lateral, away from the fissure. You don’t do anything to the fissure itself. In her case, I felt the fissure and it seemed too thick. Violating the treatment protocol, I biopsied the fissure and it turned out to be cancer. The treatment had become radiation instead of surgery and she had a course of radiation. Because the fissure was anterior, she had the recto-vaginal septum break down and she became incontinent. I had to do a colostomy and then a gynecologist and I spent the next two years trying to repair the recto-vaginal septum. Because it had been radiated, it wouldn’t heal. We finally were able to graft some tissue from her thigh into the septum and get it to heal after two failure and two years.

She never lost her sense of humor or her will to survive and get back to normal. Finally, after a terrible ordeal, we got her there. About a year later, she came in with abdominal swelling and nausea. An ultrasound showed fluid in her abdomen and I feared recurrence of the anal cancer. I did a tap of the abdominal fluid for cytology and it turned out to be an unrelated cancer of the stomach. We had a talk and I told her the cancer, because it was already into the peritoneal fluid, was incurable. What did she want to do ? She had a brother she hadn’t seen in a decade. We sent for him. I kept her on IVs until they had a chance to visit over a few days, then I turned her IV down to a minimal rate and she slowly dehydrated and died. She was always comfortable and was in complete agreement with the plan. We just didn’t talk about it and I didn’t have her sign any sort of consent.

Where would the government have helped in that process ?

I remember well another case. A man who owned the local clock shop. We had done business (I like clocks) and he came in one day with abdominal pain. He turned out to have Burkett’s lymphoma of the small bowel, a rare and rapidly fatal cancer. I resected the primary tumor and turned him over to the oncologist for chemotherapy. Six months later, I was called to see him in the hospital. He was dying and the nurses could not get an IV into him. They wanted me to place a subclavian catheter for IV fluid. I examined him and then went out to talk to the family, about five or six adult children. I asked them why they wanted me to do this. He was obviously dying and comfortable. Why prolong the misery ? Without an IV, he would die by morning. With an IV, he would die by morning. They held a vote and the majority voted to put in the IV. He died before morning. Would the government have helped in that situation ? I’m sure he had a “living will” because, by that time, hospitals required them. However, family can override the provisions of the living will.

In Holland, there is a law against euthanasia that is never enforced. If an ER doctor admits a patient to the hospital with end stage COPD, he loses his job. Those patients get a lethal injection in the ER. No consent; no discussion.

That is the final goal of cost control.

Troubles with the French healthcare system

Saturday, August 8th, 2009

I have advocated the French system as a model for reform of the US health care system. It is the most expensive in Europe and also has the highest satisfaction level of any national program in the world. Now they are having more trouble with cost.

France claims it long ago achieved much of what today’s U.S. health-care overhaul is seeking: It covers everyone, and provides what supporters say is high-quality care. But soaring costs are pushing the system into crisis. The result: As Congress fights over whether America should be more like France, the French government is trying to borrow U.S. tactics.

My impression has been that Canada and not France has been the model for the Obama reformers. France allows private practice, free choice of physician and hospital and the majority of the system is fee-for-service. Maybe things have changed in recent years.

In recent months, France imposed American-style “co-pays” on patients to try to throttle back prescription-drug costs and forced state hospitals to crack down on expenses. “A hospital doesn’t need to be money-losing to provide good-quality treatment,” President Nicolas Sarkozy thundered in a recent speech to doctors.

My information is that the French system always required co-pays and, in fact, required payment in advance with the patient reimbursed by the health plan later. Maybe they have changed the system since 2000, when most of my information was produced, and have suffered from the moral hazard problem created by prepaid care.

My information was that:

The basic principle of French healthcare is avance de frais, or payment directly from patient to doctor. The freedoms of personal payment, freedom to choose a doctor and the doctor’s freedom to practice, are fundamental to the French system. The patient is reimbursed by insurance, 80% by Securite Sociale, and the rest by assurance complementaire but the principle is supported by the French when they are surveyed and they are suspicious of “free care” as wasteful and liable to abuse.

Maybe this has changed in recent years.

And service cuts — such as the closure of a maternity ward near Ms. Cuccarolo’s home — are prompting complaints from patients, doctors and nurses that care is being rationed. That concern echos worries among some Americans that the U.S. changes could lead to rationing.

The French system’s fragile solvency shows how tough it is to provide universal coverage while controlling costs, the professed twin goals of President Barack Obama’s proposed overhaul.

I have favored the French approach because it seemed to be controlling the overuse that is always associated with free care.

French taxpayers fund a state health insurer, Assurance Maladie, proportionally to their income, and patients get treatment even if they can’t pay for it. France spends 11% of national output on health services, compared with 17% in the U.S., and routinely outranks the U.S. in infant mortality and some other health measures.

The problem is that Assurance Maladie has been in the red since 1989. This year the annual shortfall is expected to reach €9.4 billion ($13.5 billion), and €15 billion in 2010, or roughly 10% of its budget.

The system, as it was described in 2000, was chiefly funded by payroll deduction but subsidies may have increased in the past few years. The CMU, the taxpayer supported program for the poor, may have been flooded with applicants just as the “government option” would be flooded with those previously paying for their own care in company health plans.

I suspect that the French economy is capable of paying much less than our own economy could afford. Eleven percent of our economy would far less than we now pay for a system that does not cover 47 million (although that figure is suspect). Maybe the increasing number of illegals in France are stressing the system, just as they are stressing our own system.

Health care Obama style

Thursday, August 6th, 2009

I monitor some left wing blogs in order to keep up with the current meme that is animating the left. At one time, it was an attack on George Bush’s service in the Texas Air National Guard. A left-wing blogger named Kevin Drum did a far more thorough study of this story than CBS did, for example, and concluded there was no real story there. I developed considerable respect for Kevin from this incident and have been disappointed to see how few other examples I can find of objective analysis by the left. The current health care debate is one which pits a basic pillar of “progressive thinking”, single payer health care, against the realities of such instances as exist today.

I have been a bit puzzled to see an organization like AARP join Obama on the “reform” bandwagon, such as it is. They are supposed to represent members who are eligible for or members of Medicare and one thing we can all be certain of is the prospect of rationing of care for the elderly in any Obama sponsored plan. It seems that some AARP members have figured this out. maybe the AARP staffers who marched out of that meeting can report the violent oldsters to flag@whitehouse.gov. Here I link to a useful guide for those who wish to identify the evil right wing mob members :).

Anyway, I have run across a good analogy of what this supposed reform is all about. It’s about a new Nomenklatura. That’s the Chicago Way.

It is important that people realize that these government institutions will not be transparent nor will they be fair. A new, parallel system of privileges and favors will arise that will supplant our current system, which is largely cash based. As the government owns and controls more of society, it will be more important than ever to covet the friendship and favor of the Nomenklatura that will control access to queues and prestigious posts.

Luckily we have an entire body of knowledge of how the US will fare as government control increases – our study of the former Communist countries (which was largely done as a response to their military threat, since it was important to understand the “enemy” at the time). For example you can go here and see an interesting research paper related to the topic.

The occasional articles we see on corruption in the system are missing the point; the ENTIRE system will eventually be riven with corruption, because that is essentially how these sorts of socialistic enterprises all end up being run. It isn’t the spots on the dog, but the dog itself.

It is the essence of socialism that, once money is not the medium of exchange, another medium will be found. It is usually one that is available only to the insiders. It’s a bit like cutting $100 million from the trillion dollar budget, then ordering three new $65 million airplanes for Congress to fly around in.

UPDATE: It is now eight new airplanes. Do these people have any sense of where we are ?

Health care will never be more egalitarian than it is now.

Obama and Honduras

Wednesday, August 5th, 2009

A lot of us have been puzzled by president Obama’s fondness for tyrants, including Ahmadinejad in Iran and Chavez in Venezuela. We attributed his interference in Honduras in favor of a would-be dictator as another of his ideological ventures. However, we might be wrong about Obama here. Maybe it is just the Democrats’ old culture of corruption returning to business as usual.

In October 1994, President Bill Clinton used the U.S. military to force Haiti to take back former President Jean Bertrand Aristide, an intolerant populist who had been deposed in a coup three years earlier. The Haitian people didn’t fare well under the decade of Aristide tyranny and corruption following that U.S. intervention. But key Democrats, who secured contracts with the Haitian government, did.

Why would he do a thing like that ?

Once restored to power, Aristide ruled Haiti for a decade, either as president or as the power behind the throne during the presidency of Mr. Préval. It wasn’t until he was chased out of the country a second time, in 2004, that Haitians were able to document that their government had been doing business in telecommunications with Americans who were close to Mr. Clinton.

Haitians had been complaining to me since the late 1990s about the relationship between Haiti Teleco and a company called Fusion Telecommunications. They alleged that Fusion had ties to Joseph P. Kennedy II, a vociferous supporter of Aristide, and that instead of paying the official settlement rate that all U.S. carriers were supposed to pay, it was getting a special price. The company would not even acknowledge that it operated in Haiti. What I did learn at that time was that Fusion was run by former Democratic Party Finance Chairman Marvin Rosen. Mr. Kennedy was on the board. So too was Mr. Clinton’s former aide, Thomas “Mack” McLarty, and former Mississippi Democratic Gov. Ray Mabus.

Maybe we need to start looking for the Chicago-Honduras connection.

The Honduran constitutional crisis is very different than the Haiti case, in that the Honduran military has never been in charge. When Mr. Zelaya was deported, the presidency was passed, as the constitution requires, to the president of Congress. Mr. Zelaya’s party is still governing the country.

Yet there are important lessons from Bill Clinton’s Haiti policy that hold for Honduras. One is that the U.S. is more than capable of misjudging a constitutional crisis and of backing the wrong guy. When it does, there is no guarantee it will rectify the problem.

Another lesson from Haiti is that a Caribbean despot can offer good terms to foreign investors. Since the Haiti episode Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez has conducted a courtship with Democrats too. He gives Mr. Kennedy’s Citizen’s Energy company cut-price home-heating oil that the former Massachusetts congressman distributes to the poor in order to polish the Democrats’ image. Never mind about Venezuelans suffering under chavismo.

It is all becoming clear now.

The health care debate

Tuesday, August 4th, 2009

The temperature of the health reform debate is rising as August gets under way. There have been some fairly angry protests at Congresspeople’s “town hall meetings.” On the lefty blogs, and even the White House, this is evidence of a right wing conspiracy.

HCAN’s Richard Kirsch said a couple of months ago, “Those attacking reform are really looking to protect their own profits, and [Rick Scott is] a perfect messenger for that. His history of making a fortune by destroying quality in the health-care system and ripping off the government is a great example of what’s really going on…. We cannot have a better first person to attack health care reform than someone who ran a company that ripped off the government of hundreds of millions of dollars.”

Right-wing activists teaming up with a right-wing scam artist to ensure the public can’t have an honest discussion about health care. It’s sad, in a predictable kind of way.

I would also note that left wing Obama supporters can’t have an honest discussion, either. I have previously posted an extensive analysis of what I think a good model for reform might be. I don’t think the command economy model, which was the Clinton Plan and seems to be Obama’s plan if they will take the time to read the bills, will work in the long run. What this approach attempts to do is to control prices by controlling what doctors and hospitals can charge, and then to control utilization by rationing the care that is underpriced. In World War II, there were wage and price controls that survived into the post war years. This was accepted by most citizens, although there was a lot of black market manipulation, because we were at war. Richard Nixon attempted to control the first stirrings of inflation with wage and price controls. Even when he removed them as a bad idea in 1973, he left them on medical services. You cannot write regulations that will take the place of the market. The Soviet Union found this out but we seem doomed to repeat their failures.

The trend in the Democrats’ legislation is to put all adults into Medicare and then control utilization by rationing care, especially for the elderly. What do we know about Medicare as a system so far ? I spent about eight years on the Board of Directors of CMRI, the Medicare peer review organization for California. The last two years, I was chair of the Data Committee. After I retired, I went to Dartmouth for a year to learn how to measure quality in health care by analyzing data from the Medicare claims database. I thought there would be a lot of interest in quality measurement as part of attempts to control costs and reduce waste. I was wrong. The government people were no more interested in this than the insurance companies, maybe less. What they wanted to do was to juggle the reimbursement system to control costs.

In 1989, the government passed a law revising how doctors were paid in an attempt to discourage expensive specialist care and encourage primary care. How did that work out ? It certainly cut payment for highly technical procedures, like those I used to do. What did it do for primary care ?
Not so good. It turns out that paying people less while telling them how important you think they are doesn’t work well.

Over the past 25 years, America’s growing and increasingly diverse population has surpassed its number of trained health personnel.

In 2006, the Association of American Medical Colleges recommended a 30 percent expansion in the number of physicians trained, in order to avert a doctor shortage — a shortage predicted to be 20,000 by 2015, according to the PricewaterhouseCoopers Institute.

The nation may see a shortage of 1 million nurses by 2020, according to the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Today, Georgia is in dire need of more health professionals from more diverse backgrounds.

Georgia ranks 37th among the 50 states in the number of doctors per capita, according to the American Association of Medical Colleges Center for Workforce Studies.

This in a state that has the third highest rate of obesity among youth, ages 10 through 17 (37 percent), and an adult population ranked 14th heaviest among the 50 states.

In efforts to recruit more physicians into primary care fields, appropriate reimbursement should be given for diagnosis, counseling and other cognitive-based services.

Health professions students must be able to obtain their?education without incurring student loan debts of $200,000 or more.

This debt drives many new graduates into higher-paying specialties or more-affluent communities rather than primary care in rural and urban settings.

What is not mentioned is that payment to primary care physicians is crappy and declining. The nurse shortage has two basic origins. Back in the 1970s, the national nursing organizations decided that RN nurses should all have college degrees. They brought pressure to bear with politicians to close hospital-based diploma nursing schools and to make all prospective nurses go to college. The result was a disaster that nobody talks about. When I was a medical student in the 60s, the LA County Hospital had a nursing school that turned out well prepared nurses who were in tremendous demand. The school close about 1974 and almost all hospital nursing schools were gone soon after. What replaced them were the junior colleges which trained nursing students who got their clinical experience in hospitals but they never got the level of daily practical experience of the old diploma schools. There, they had dormitories and all expenses were paid. Many stayed at the training hospital when they graduated. The only reason that system went away was the egotism of the nursing societies who wanted to require a college degree to become an RN.

Reimbursement of primary care doctors has never been raised as they were promised. Instead, they were tricked into supporting cuts in reimbursement for surgery, an early form of rationing. They bear the burden of the system and their incomes have suffered. Medical students are rational people and have avoided primary care with increasing determination. They now find that their place is being taken by “allied health professionals” including nurse practitioners and physician assistants. I think this is a good idea so long as the role of the physician is kept primary. Many patients are happy to be seen by nurse practitioners. They do need supervisions, though. For a while my ex-wife was working for a local GP as a nurse practitioner. She had a master’s degree and had trained well. Still, she used to call me every day or two about a question that she couldn’t get the GPs to answer for her. Eventually, she was replaced by another MD because the practice administrator told her that MDs were “more versatile.” Of course they are but proper use of NPs is still a good use of resources. There are now small clinics located in drug stores and even Walmart stores, staffed by NPs. Most of these have a list of common conditions that they are equipped to treat. They do not accept patients with other conditions or symptoms, suggesting that they see an MD.

Eventually, we will evolve into a system where people can seek medical care that they can afford and that is convenient without waiting lists and rationing, other than by what we choose to pay. I fear that all these budding innovations will be choked off by premature descent into a command economy system that will freeze all the players in place. This happened in Canada but now after 25 years, private practice is breaking out in Canada.

Accepting money from patients for operations they would otherwise receive free of charge in a public hospital is technically prohibited in this country, even in cases where patients would wait months or even years before receiving treatment.

But no one is about to arrest Dr. Brian Day, who is president and medical director of the center, or any of the 120 doctors who work there. Public hospitals are sending him growing numbers of patients they are too busy to treat, and his center is advertising that patients do not have to wait to replace their aching knees.

The country’s publicly financed health insurance system — frequently described as the third rail of its political system and a core value of its national identity — is gradually breaking down. Private clinics are opening around the country by an estimated one a week, and private insurance companies are about to find a gold mine.

Let’s not make a huge mistake and freeze our country into an ill-advised move now when real reform is possible. It may happen regardless of what the government does but it will be harder if we are frozen into a Canadian style socialist system.

Duck season

Sunday, August 2nd, 2009

I was up this morning making coffee and watching the Sunday talk shows when I noticed a duck swimming in the pool out the window. The ducks seem to like our pool because it is just over a fence from a small lake that they spend all year swimming in. Unfortunately, they poop in the pool and, in the summer heat, algae becomes a serious problem. My first response when seeing ducks in the pool is to chase them out. This time was different.

When I started to go out the door, I noticed that the female duck had an escort. She had her duckling swimming right along her right wing tip. I watched them for a while and finally opened the door. The mother duck squawked and jumped out of the pool. The duckling could not get up to the deck from the water. The distance was too great. After a few minutes, the mother duck gave up flew away. I decided I would help the duckling out of the water although I couldn’t see how he had gotten into the yard. He must have walked under the gate which does have a gap of about 6 inches although it is screened by a lot of flowers.

As soon as the duckling saw me, he was excited and, as soon as I headed his way, he would madly paddle the other. He practically was airborne he was paddling so furiously. I tried to use the small skimmer net to lift him out but he was just too fast. Finally, I went up and woke Cindy to help me. We came downstairs and looked out but no duckling. I figured he had gotten out somehow. Cindy was up now and she decided to lie in the sun while I watched the rest of the talk show.

A few minutes later, she opened the door and came in with the duckling in her hand. She had decided to look in the pool skimmer and there he was. He went madly paddling away but came back to the skimmer and she caught him. We decided to put him through the fence onto the sand next to the larger lake. We couldn’t see the mother duck but hoped she would find him before a coyote did. Cindy set him down and he huddled on the sand.

After a few minutes, she reached down to pet him and he took off running to the lake. He dove in and then the mother, who had been sitting under a tree nearby, came flying over and took him in hand. A few minutes later, they were paddling around the lake as though nothing had happened. I hope she learned her lesson as we might not be here to rescue the ducking the next time.

Another quiet Arizona Sunday morning.